Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates :

1. Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates: Indur M. Goklany Independent Scholar http://goklany.org e-mail: igoklany@verizon.net Fourth International Climate Change Conference Chicago, IL May 16–18, 2010

2. Organization of Talk • Empirical data • Excess winter deaths • Extreme events • Malaria • Hunger, cereal yields, cereal production • Life expectancy • Ranking GW among other global health risks • Potential death & disease in developing countries from biofuel production

3. Empirical Data

4. Mortality by Month, Various Industrialized Countries Source: Falagas et al. (2009)

5. Excess Winter Deaths, Various Developed Countries Sources: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009); CANSIM (2009); UKONS (2009); Falagas et al. (2009)

6. Excess Winter Deaths, England & Wales1950/51-2007/08 Source: UKONS (2009)

7. Shrinkage of the distribution of malariaTop: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945Bottom: left, 1977; right,2007Source: WHO (2008).

8. Chronic hunger in the developing world, 1969–2009(% of population)Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.

9. Cereal Yields and Production, 1961–2008Least Developed Countries & WorldSource: FAO (2010)

10. Reasons for the increase of hungeraccording to FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009 • The 2006-2008 food price crisis • The global economic slowdown • Insufficient investment in agriculture • The increase is not a result of poor crop harvest Source: http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs/multimedia0/presentation-the-state-of-food-insecurity/en/

11. Global Life Expectancy . Economic Development, and CO2 Emissions, 1760–2007Source: Goklany (2010)

12. Ranking Global Warming Among Global Health Risks

13. Global Health Priorities — 2004 Data Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)

14. Potential Death & Disease in Developing Countries From Biofuel Production

15. Identifying Diseases of Poverty — 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)

16. Death & Disease From Diseases of Poverty — 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)

17. Death & Disease in Developing Countriesper Million People in Extreme Poverty

18. Death & Disease in Developing Countries in 2010Due to Biofuel Production

19. Potential Death & Disease due to Biofuel Production and Global Warming

20. Findings • In developed world, more people die in winter, but trend is downward due to greater wealth and fuel affordability • Deaths and death rates from extreme weather events, malaria, hunger, and other climate sensitive health risks have declined over the long term • Mortality Rates Life Expectancies • GW ranks below the top 20 global health problems today, and will advance only if these other risks are solved first • Death and disease from biofuel production more likely to be real than those estimated due to GW • Increased death and disease from biofuel production most likely exceeds any reductions from reduced GW

21. Conclusions • GW or its underlying human causes (if any) have not increased death and disease in the aggregate. • In fact, they are probably responsible for the worldwide decreases in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy over the last century. • GW policies may already have killed more than they have saved • And may kill even more if they reduce energy use prematurely and/or economic development, particularly for the less well-off

22. THE END Supplemental slides follow

23. Daily Mortality by MonthU.S.A., 2001-08 Source: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009)

24. Daily Mortality by MonthCanada, 2001-06 Source: Goklany (2009a) based on CANSIM (2009)

25. Global Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900–2008Source: Goklany (2009b)

26. Chronic hunger, Worldwide1969/71–2008/09Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.

27. US Life Expectancy, CO2 Emissions, Consumption and Economic Development, 1900–2006Source: Goklany (2010)

28. Contribution of Global Warming to Mortality from Hunger, Malaria & Flooding, 2085 Source: Goklany (2009b)