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Confounding

RR = 7. Confounding. Is the association causal?. Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding. Hypotheses. 1 How is this disease distributed?. 2 Is there an association?. 4 What should be done to prevent the disease?. 5 Did the prevention strategy work?.

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Confounding

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  1. RR = 7 Confounding Is the association causal? Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  2. Hypotheses 1 How is this disease distributed? 2 Is there an association? 4 What should be done to prevent the disease? 5 Did the prevention strategy work? Where are we and where are we going? What’s my hypothesis? Did the exposure and the disease turn up together? 3 Is the association causal? Why did the exposure and the disease turn up together? Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding Investigation 3-4

  3. Review 1. Cause 2. Chance 3. Confounding 4. 5. Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  4. Scenario 1 Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  5. Association Cause X Sophia Broken Window Cause Scenario 1 Not Observed Vinnie Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  6. Review Epi Talk Epidemiology The study of how and why diseases or other health-related conditions are distributed in a population the way they are, in other words, why some people get sick and others do not. Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  7. Scenario 2 Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  8. No Teenage Pregnancy Teenage Pregnancy R-Rated Movies No R-Rated Movies Scenario 2 Risks Relative Risk % or a b 15 c d 90 or % Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  9. Cause Scenario 2 “If we can keep our teenagers from watching R-rated movies, then we can go a long way towards preventing teenage pregnancy.” “The study establishes a clear progression that begins with watching R-rated movies and leads to teenage pregnancy.” Watching R-Rated Movies Teenage Pregnancy Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  10. Association Cause X Watching R-Rated Movies Teenage Pregnancy Cause Scenario 2 Not Observed ? Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  11. Not Observed Not Observed ? Vinnie Association Association Cause Cause Observed Observed X X Watching R-Rated Movies Sophia Teenage Pregnancy Broken Window Cause Cause Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  12. Association Cause X Watching R-Rated Movies Teenage Pregnancy Cause Scenario 2 Not Observed ? Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  13. Association Cause X Watching R-Rated Movies Teenage Pregnancy Cause Scenario 2 Confounder Not Observed ? Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  14. Epi Talk Epi Talk Confound To confuse. Confounder A third factor that can make it appear that an observed exposure causes an outcome. An unobserved exposure that is both associated with an observed exposure and is an actual cause of an outcome. Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  15. Association Cause X Watching R-Rated Movies Teenage Pregnancy Cause Scenario 2 Confounder Not Observed ? Lack of Adequate Supervision Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  16. Epi Log Worksheet Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  17. Epi Teams Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  18. Association Cause X Cause Matches Lung Cancer 1 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  19. Association Cause X Cause Playing Volleyball Skin Cancer 2 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  20. Association Cause X Cause Low Birth Weight Babies Drinking Alcohol during Pregnancy 3 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  21. Association Cause X Cause Eating Pretzels Auto Accidents 4 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  22. Association Cause X Cause Watching TV Acne 5 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  23. Association Cause X Cause Coffee Cancer 6 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  24. Association Cause X Cause Driving Motorcycles Hepatitis C 7 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  25. Association Cause X Cause Playing Baseball Oral Cancer 8 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  26. Association Cause X Cause Skin Cancer Sand 9 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  27. Association Cause X Cause Eating Ice Cream Drowning 10 Confounding Confounder Not Observed Observed Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  28. Study Links Eating M&M’s To Decreased Risk of Flu Explanations for Finding an Association 1. Cause 2. Chance 3. Confounding Revere Time Order 4. 5. Bias Why would an exposure and an outcome turn up together? Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  29. RR = 7 Explanations for Finding an Association Could the association have been found because ofconfounding? Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

  30. Investigation 3-4 has ended. CDC Confounding Investigation 3-4 Detectives in the Classroom – Investigation 3-4: Confounding

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