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Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan

Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan

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Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan

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  1. Pertemuan 19Model Pengambilan Keputusan Matakuliah : J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen Tahun : 2005 Versi : 01/00

  2. Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : • Memahami proses pengambilan keputusan termasuk aspek-aspek yang mempengaruhi proses

  3. Outline Materi • Informas sebagai barang ekonomi • Sifat dan tipe keputusan • Model pengambilan keputusan • Tahapan pengambilan keputusan

  4. Informasi sebagai suatu barang ekonomi • Rantai transformasi: • DATA - INFORMATION - KNOWLEDGE -- WISDOM • Informasi adalah sebuah special good • Biaya produksi tinggi • Biaya reproduski quasi null • Biaya tetap tinggi, namun biaya marjinal rendah • Nilai informasi (waktu, volume, ketidakpastian) • Harga Jual informasi tergantung pada nilai/manfaat, bukan pada biaya.

  5. Sifat Dasar Decision Making • Pengambilan Keputusan • Adalah tindakan memilih salah satu alternatif dari sekumpulan alternatif yang tersedia. • Proses Pengambilan Keputusan • Rangkaian Proses mengenali, mendefinisikan situasi, identifikasi alternatif, memilih alternatif terbaik, dan implementasinya. • Sebuah keputusan yang efektif adalh yang mengoptimalkan beberapa faktor seperti laba, penjualan, kesejahteraan karyawan dan pangsa pasar. • Para manajer membuat keputusan berkenaan dengan masalah dan kesempatan.

  6. Tipe Keputusan • Keputusan Terprogram • Suatu Keputusan yang cukup terstruktur (recurs) yang kerap berulang. • Contoh : Memanaskan mesin mobil di pagi hari. • Keputusan Tak terprogram • Suatu keptusan yang relatif dan terstruktur dan terjadi sangat jarang dibandingkan keputusan teprogram. • Contoh: Memilih tujuan wisata saat liburan.

  7. Tipe Keputusan • Routine and Non-Routine Decisions • Objective vs. Bounded Rationality • Level of Certainty

  8. Kondisi Decision-Making • Decision Making Under Certainty • Suatu kondisi dimana manajer memahami dengan baik alternatif yang tersedia serta kondisi berkaitan dengan setiap alternatif. • Decision Making Under Risk • Suatu kondisi berkenaan dengan ketersediaan alternatif dan potensi manfaat serta biaya resiko. • Decision Making Under Uncertainty • Suatu kondisi dimana manajer tidak mengetahui seluruh alternatif, resiko setiap alternatif, atu konsekuensi untuk setiap alternatif.

  9. Uncertainty apa saja yang ada? • Uncertainty karena Teknologi • Dell and LiOn battery • Will it work? Will Sony as the only supplier have enough capacity? • Uncertainty berkenaan permintaan • Economic recession or boom, interest rates, inflation, consumer preferences • Expansion of Saturn’s Spring Hill Plant • Uncertainty karena persaingan • Competitive actions and reactions • Success of international expansion by Wal-Mart • Success of new beverages of Coke and Pepsi

  10. Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making Incentives for Decision Makers Short-Run Versus Long-Run Decisions

  11. Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making Pitfalls yang harus dihindari Sunk costs. Allocated fixed costs. Unitized fixed costs. Opportunity costs.

  12. Kondisi yg dihadapi manajer... Certainty Risk Uncertainty Level of ambiguity and chances of making a bad decision Lower Moderate Higher Kondisi Decision-Making

  13. obtain complete . . . and end up with When faced with a and perfect information a decision that best decision situation, • eliminate uncertainty serves the interests managers should . . . • evaluate everything of the organization. rationally and logically Pandangan Rasional dalamDecision Making • Model Klasik Decision Making Figure 9.2

  14. Langkah Dasar Rational Decision Making 1. Identifikasi seluruh opsi (termasuk doing nothing). 2. Kuantifikasi nilai (biaya) konsekuensi yang mungkin timbul untuk setipa opsi 3. Prediksi likelihood untuk setiap konsekuensi. 4. Integrasi seluruh kemungkinan.

  15. Kompenen Decision Making • State /Kondisi • Adalah kondisi aktual yang mungkin terjadi di masa mendatang • Keputusan / Decision • Berbagai pilihan dimana seorang decision maker dapat memilih satu diantaranya • Outcomes /hasil • Hasil dari suatu kombinasi states dan decisions

  16. Tahapan menuju Good Decisions • Definisikan problem dan influencing factors • Tetapkan decision criteria • Pilih model pengambilan keputusan • Identifikasi dan evaluasi alternatif menggunakan model yang dipilih • Pilih alternatif terbaik • Implementasi keptusan • Evaluasi hasil

  17. Models • Memungkinkan manajer melakukan analisis “What if”. • Disusun untuk manajemen masalah dan manajemen input • Force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problems • Require managers to be specific about constraints and goals relating to a problem • Help reduce the time needed in decision making

  18. Keterbatasan Models They • may be expensive and time-consuming to develop and test • are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical and logical complexity • tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable information • often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world

  19. Quantitative Analysis Logic Historical Data Marketing Research Scientific Analysis Modeling Problem Decision Qualitative Analysis Emotions Intuition Personal Experience and Motivation Rumors The Decision-Making Process

  20. Out-comes States of Nature Alternatives Decision Problem Ways of Displaying a Decision Problem • Decision trees • Decision tables

  21. Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process Table 9.1a

  22. Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process (cont’d) Table 9.1b

  23. Are the alternative’s Is the alternative Is the alternative Retain for further consequences Yes Yes Yes feasible? satisfactory? consideration affordable? No No No Eliminate from Eliminate from Eliminate from consideration consideration consideration Evaluating Alternatives in theDecision-Making Process Figure 9.3

  24. Behavioral Aspects ofDecision Making (cont’d) • Bounded Rationality • The concept that decision makers are limited by their values and unconscious reflexes, skills, and habits. • Satisficing • The tendency to search for alternatives only until one is found that meets some minimum standard of sufficiency to resolve the problem. • Coalition • A political force in decision making which consists of an informal alliance of individuals or groups formed to achieve a goal.

  25. Behavioral Aspects ofDecision Making (cont’d) • Intuition • An innate belief about something without conscious consideration. • Escalation of Commitment • A decision maker is staying with a decision even when it appears to be wrong. • Risk Propensity • The extent to which a decision maker is willing to gamble when making a decision.

  26. Behavioral Aspects ofDecision Making (cont’d) • Ethics and Decision Making • Individual ethics (personal beliefs about right and wrong behavior) combine with the organization’s ethics to create managerial ethics. • Components of managerial ethics: • Relationships of the firm to employees • Employees to the firm • The firm to other economic agents

  27. Group and Team Decision Makingin Organizations • Forms of Group Decision Making • Interacting groups or teams • are the most common form of decision-making groups which consists of an existing group or newly formed team interacting and then making a decision. • Delphi groups • are sometimes used for developing a consensus of expert opinion from a panel of experts who individually contribute through a moderator. • Nominal groups • are a structured technique designed to generate creative and innovative ideas through the individual contributions of alternatives that are winnowed down through a series of rank-ordering of the alternatives to reach a decision.

  28. Advantages and Disadvantages ofGroup and Team Decision Making Table 9.2

  29. Managing Group and Team Decision-Making Processes • Managers Can Promote the Effectiveness of Group and Team Decision Making • Being aware of the pros and cons of having a group or team make a decision. • Setting deadlines for when decisions must be made. • Avoid problems with dominance by managing group membership. • Have each group member individually critically evaluate all alternatives. • As a manager, do not make your position known too early. • Appoint a group member to be a “devil’s advocate.” • Hold a follow-up meeting to recheck the decision.