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Western Drought Activities Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center

Western Drought Activities Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland Oregon 2007 Oct 10 – 11. Calibrating the Oregon Drought Index. Sustained Drought. Normal Dryness. Severe Drought. Moderate Drought.

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Western Drought Activities Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center

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  1. Western Drought Activities Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland Oregon 2007 Oct 10 – 11

  2. Calibrating the Oregon Drought Index Sustained Drought Normal Dryness Severe Drought Moderate Drought

  3. Last 30 Days

  4. How to get more dots, faster.

  5. Opening page acis.dri.edu/wxcoder Joint RCC/NWS/NCDC project

  6. Welcome to Station Named Demo

  7. Form presented to station WFO Reno Now enter observations

  8. Form with 2 days opened, precip times, remarks

  9. Printable copy for local storage

  10. Observer error, logical inconsistency, TMIN > TOBS

  11. Bad Snow Depth Observer entered 1.0 inch Whole inches only

  12. Hmmmm… This is a monthly extreme temperature. Are you sure ?? Please confirm.

  13. Email sent to site administrator Monthly extreme exceeded This may merit further attention.

  14. More complex station This one also has soil and river information

  15. rcc-acis.org

  16. ACIS Brochure available at rcc-acis.org

  17. Westmap: U Arizona, DRI/WRCC, OSU NOAA – NCTP …CLIMAS/WRCC/CAP Can be expanded to cover additional states www.wrcc.dri.edu/PROJECTS.html

  18. States, counties, hydro basins, climate divisions, grid squares, stakeholder pixels Uses 4 km (maybe soon 2 km) PRISM Monthly Time Series 1895 - last month

  19. September-August 12-month Precipitation Gallatin County, Montana With 9-Year Running Mean

  20. June-July-August Summer Precipitation Luna County, New Mexico With 10-Year Running Mean

  21. Sierra Nevada 12 Months Thru September 2007

  22. Sierra Nevada Winter-Centered 12-Month July - June Precipitation Thru June 2007

  23. Tioga Pass. 2007 April 5. 1355 PT. 9943 ft.

  24. Tioga Pass. 2007 Saturday May 12. 1455 PT. 9943 ft.

  25. July-June Precipitation South Coastal California 1895-1896 thru 2006-2007

  26. Reconstructed natural flow at Lees Ferry. Water Years 1906-2006. White: preliminary estimates. Running mean plotted at end of 5-year period. WY 2006-07 estimate (Aug 07) approx 69 percent

  27. Lake Powell Storage Through August 29, 2007 Currently 50.2 % full Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005

  28. Lake Powell Elevation Through August 29, 2007 Water level on August 29, 2007 was 3603.83 ft, -96.17 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html

  29. R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1139601

  30. Seager et al, 2007. Average of 19 climate models. Figure by Naomi Naik. www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/science.shtml

  31. Yesterday Tomorrow Seager et al, 2007.

  32. Estimated effects of climate change on Colorado River streamflow (Lees Ferry): • Small decrease (0-8 percent by mid-century) Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2007 • Large decrease (up to 40 percent) Hoerling and Eischeid 2007 • Moderate decrease (in between) Seager et al 2007 • None of these show streamflow going up! • B. Any decrease is a source of concern ! • C. We have to resolve these differences !

  33. ? Is the current Southwest drought a once-or-twice-a-century drought like those of the past 500 years … ? ? … or … a harbinger of things to come, a different type of drought that we have not observed before ? ?

  34. Getting NIDIS off the ground. Relation of NIDIS to the Climate Test Bed.

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