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CYCLES and TRENDS

CYCLES and TRENDS. DAVID CHAPMAN. CYCLES BUBBLES PANICS. CYCLES and TRENDS. “ Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeating it” -- George Santayana (1863-1952) “The people are turbulent and changing, they seldom judge or determine right.” -- Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804)

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CYCLES and TRENDS

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  1. CYCLES and TRENDS DAVID CHAPMAN CYCLES BUBBLES PANICS

  2. CYCLES and TRENDS “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeating it” -- George Santayana (1863-1952) “The people are turbulent and changing, they seldom judge or determine right.” -- Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804) “The issue today is the same as it has been throughout all history, whether man shall be allowed to govern himself or be ruled by a small elite” -- Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

  3. CYCLES and TRENDS Long Term Cycles Dewey & Dakin (54 Year Commodity Cycle) Kondratieff Kwave (54-60 Year Supercycle)

  4. CYCLES and TRENDS • Edward Dewey And Edward Dakin • ● 54 Year Cycle • ● Their book charted prices from 1790 for wholesale prices that coincided with peaks and valleys for commodity prices • ● Cycle measured peak to trough with roughly 27 years to peak and 27 years to trough

  5. CYCLES and TRENDS DEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONS

  6. CYCLES and TRENDS DEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONS

  7. CYCLES and TRENDS Kondratieff Cycle or Kwave ● Russian Economist under Stalin ● 50-60/65 year cycle ● Can be controversial ● Not widely accepted ● Ian Gordon – Long Wave Analyst www.longwavegroup.com

  8. CYCLES and TRENDS The K-Wave Cycles 1789-Present U.S.A.

  9. CYCLES and TRENDS

  10. CYCLES and TRENDS

  11. CYCLES and TRENDS

  12. CYCLES and TRENDS Other Cycles • ● Kuznets – 15-25 Year Real Estate/ Infrastructure • ● Juglar – 7-11 Year Business Cycle • ● Kitchin – 3-5 Year Inventory Cycle

  13. CYCLES and TRENDS

  14. CYCLES and TRENDS

  15. CYCLES and TRENDS

  16. CYCLES and TRENDS

  17. CYCLES and TRENDS Commodity Cycles ● Gold ● Silver ● Oil ● Natural Gas

  18. CYCLES and TRENDS

  19. CYCLES and TRENDS

  20. CYCLES and TRENDS

  21. CYCLES and TRENDS

  22. CYCLES and TRENDS

  23. CYCLES and TRENDS Bubbles And Panics • ● South Sea Bubble • ● Roaring 20’s Bubble • ● Tokyo Nikkei Bubble • ● NASDAQ Bubble • ● Housing Bubble

  24. CYCLES and TRENDS

  25. CYCLES and TRENDS

  26. CYCLES and TRENDS

  27. CYCLES and TRENDS

  28. CYCLES and TRENDS

  29. CYCLES and TRENDS

  30. CYCLES and TRENDS Intermarket Technical Analysis • ● Dow/Gold • ● Dow/Oil • ● Oil/Gold • ● Gold/Silver

  31. CYCLES and TRENDS

  32. CYCLES and TRENDS

  33. CYCLES and TRENDS

  34. CYCLES and TRENDS

  35. SOME INTERESTING CHARTS

  36. CYCLES and TRENDS

  37. CYCLES and TRENDS

  38. CYCLES and TRENDS

  39. CYCLES and TRENDS

  40. SOME ECONOMICS

  41. Declining Consumer Confidence

  42. Rising Household Debt Declining Savings

  43. Rising Household Debt as % of Disposable Income

  44. Declining Household Net Worth as % of GDP

  45. Declining % of Homeowner Equity

  46. Record High Total US Debt as % of GDP

  47. Real Estate Decline

  48. More Mortgage Resets to Come I

  49. More Mortgage Resets to Come II

  50. Lots of Housing Supply on the Market

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