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Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall

Hydrological response surfaces in the Nordic Region for use in probabilistic assessment of climate change. Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping. Our contribution to workpackage objectives.

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Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall

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  1. Hydrological response surfaces in the Nordic Region for use in probabilistic assessment of climate change Phil Graham Sara-Sofia Hellström Fredrik Wetterhall Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping

  2. Our contribution to workpackage objectives • Hydrological rainfall-runoff models to investigate impacts of climate change on stream discharge • Using the climate change signal from RCMs

  3. Our contribution to workpackage objectives • Response surfaces for selected applications • Direct use of multiple regional model projections • Comparison of outcomes from the two methods

  4. What have we achieved since Lund? • In Lund, we showed some preliminary response surfaces • Now, we have produced many more • In Lund, we discussed the question of seasonality • Now, we have investigated the details of representing seasonality

  5. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoffno seasonality Lake Vänern Lake Vänern

  6. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoffwith seasonality Lake Vänern Lake Vänern

  7. RS – Representing SeasonalityMethod 1 Temperature Precipitation

  8. RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge Lake Vänern Current regulation rules

  9. RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge Lake Vänern Current regulation rules

  10. Lake Vänern RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge with Modified Regulation Modified regulation can help reduce risk of high discharge

  11. Lake Vänern Response Surfaces – Monthly Runoff Lake Vänern

  12. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoff Lake Mälaren

  13. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoff seasonality 1 Lake Mälaren

  14. Response Surfaces – Annual Runoff seasonality 2 Lake Mälaren

  15. RS – Representing SeasonalityMethod 2 Precipitation method 1 Precipitation method 2

  16. RS – Lake Levels Lake Mälaren Low levels

  17. RS – Lake Levels, seasonality 1 Lake Mälaren Low levels

  18. RS – Lake Levels, seasonality 2 Lake Mälaren Low levels

  19. Response Surfaces – Monthly Runoff Lake Mälaren

  20. Monthly Runoff – compared to previous results Lake Mälaren

  21. Some Conclusions • Seasonal differences not so apparent for annual runoff • Shows up in monthly results, and even more for thresholds, although not all basins are equally sensitive • Different methods for representing seasonality have an impact • Representation of evapotranspiration is problematic (as usual!)

  22. Coming Work • Contribution to del. 6.7 (RS Report) • Not too much more on response surfaces before data starts coming • Next major effort will be to work with direct modelling of RCM simulations (the “Matrix,” as soon as they are available)

  23. Questions for Discussion • Critical thresholds, we use experience from critical past events, better ideas? • What if there is widely differing seasonality from the climate models? • What will we actually get from the climate models (i.e. probabilistic info.)? • How many simulations will be available (perturbed vs. RCM results)?

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