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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Sustainable Development – Time to Act A Civil Engineer’s Response Peter Guthrie Professor of Engineering for Sustainable Development. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. “... development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

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  1. Sustainable Development – Time to ActA Civil Engineer’s ResponsePeter GuthrieProfessor of Engineering for Sustainable Development

  2. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT “... development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED,1987:43)

  3. The Stern Review • Published in 2007 • We need to spend now on Climate Change • To delay will result in unacceptable and unaffordable costs

  4. IDENTIFYING THE GLOBAL ISSUESThe Millennium Development Goals • At the UN Millennium Assembly (2000) a Declaration was adopted by 189 Member States • It included eight MDGs to be achieved by 2015: • Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education • Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women • Goal 4: Reduce child mortality • Goal 5: Improve maternal health • Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases • Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability • Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

  5. THE GLOBAL ISSUES • Climate change • Resource depletion • Biodiversity • Energy • Water and sanitation • Waste • Population growth • Pollution • Poverty

  6. THE GLOBAL ISSUESClimate Change • Gases that cause the greenhouse effect are: • Carbon dioxide (CO2) (GWP = 1) • Methane (CH4) (GWP = 21) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) (GWP = 310) • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) (GWP = 140 – 11700) • Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) (GWP = 6500 – 9200) • Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) (GWP = 23900) • CO2 is responsible for 82% of all the global warming caused by UK greenhouse gas releases • Climate change is exacerbated by deforestation

  7. THE GLOBAL ISSUESClimate Change The Five Largest Producers of Carbon Dioxide Emissions (World Bank, 2006)

  8. THE GLOBAL ISSUESClimate Change Per Capita Emissions (World Bank, 2006)

  9. THE GLOBAL ISSUESResource Depletion • Sustainable development is often expressed in terms of resource depletion, for example: • “pollutant emission must not exceed the earth’s assimilative capacity; the rate of use of renewable resources must not exceed their regeneration rate; and the rate of use of non-renewable resources must not exceed the rate at which renewable substitutes can be found.” (Barrett et al., 1999: 399) • The concepts of weak and strong sustainability are concerned almost exclusively with resource depletion

  10. THE GLOBAL ISSUESResource Depletion • The availability of all non renewable resources is finite • The rate of extraction of most minerals including oil has exceeded rate of new finds for decades • Peak oil may be imminent • Even without peak oil, rising carbon dioxide levels demand a reduction in consumption of oil

  11. THE GLOBAL ISSUESResource Depletion • The oil industry predicts a doubling of demand by 2030

  12. THE GLOBAL ISSUESBiodiversity • “The variability among living organisms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems.” (Article 2, Convention on Biological Diversity, 2002) • There have been recent calls for an international body of biodiversity experts, akin to the IPCC

  13. THE GLOBAL ISSUESBiodiversity • Biodiversity data is published by the World Bank in the World Development Indicators • Eg, in India in 2004: • Of 422 known mammal species, 85 are threatened • Of 1,180 known bird species, 79 are threatened • Of 18,664 known flowering plan species, 246 are threatened • It has been suggested that only some 1.5 million of the estimated total 8 to 10 million species have been documented • Estimates of species loss may therefore be little more than guesswork

  14. THE GLOBAL ISSUESPopulation Growth • The world’s population in 2005 was 6.5 billion • 5.3 billion people live in less developed regions • The world’s population expected to grow to 9.1 billion by 2050 • 47% increase in less developed regions • 8% increase in developed regions • Annual population growth is, at present approx 76 million; by 2050 it is estimated that annual growth will have fallen to 34 million

  15. The London Olympics

  16. Location and new public transport infrastructure Waterways Land reclamation and remediation New facilities, housing, business opportunities and recreational spaces 12 Principles Carbon Global local internal environments Biodiversity Air, noise, and soil Water Waste Materials Transport and mobility Inclusion Community Employment Health and wellbeing The London Olympics

  17. The Eden Project

  18. The Eden Project: Waste Neutral

  19. The Eden Project • Sustainability tackled through • Location • Employment • Avoidance of carbon • Use of derelict site • Choice of materials • Aims of project • Management of waste • Inclusion of neighbours • Design access for all

  20. Mersey Tidal Power Study

  21. Mersey Tidal Power Study

  22. Mersey Tidal Power StudySustainability dilemmas • Ecological protection vs carbon reduction • Employment opportunities vs increased traffic • Industrial development vs restoration of natural landscape

  23. RESPONSES AND IMPLEMENTATIONNew Approaches – Marshalling Diverse Data Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness for the Built Environment of a Rural Seismic Area (Karababa, in draft)

  24. RESPONSES AND IMPLEMENTATIONNew Approaches – Marshalling Diverse Data Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness for the Built Environment of a Rural Seismic Area (Karababa, in draft)

  25. RESPONSES AND IMPLEMENTATIONNew Approaches – Marshalling Diverse Data • Diverse data from qualitative and quantitative sources • Put together in a largely objective way • Methodologies could be developed to produce systematic approaches to embrace soft data Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness for the Built Environment of a Rural Seismic Area (Karababa, in draft)

  26. CONCLUSIONS • Engineering must be part of the solution • Engineers must be educated and trained to respond to the challenge • Engineers must learn to think laterally • Society needs to articulate how it wants progress to be measured

  27. CONCLUSIONS • We stand at the edge of what may be a precipice • We are the first generation to knowingly compromise future survival • Immediate action is needed • The vision must be bold • The future is depending on us

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