Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics Paul Morrison

1. Lies, Damn Lies & StatisticsPaulMorrison

2. Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth

3. Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Sun

4. Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Methodist Recorder

5. Misleading Almost 1.5million Britons have never done a day’s work in their lives. – Mail Cameron pledges to turn round 120,000 'troubled' families – Telegraph Revealed: How 1.4 million spent a decade on the dole under Labour - Mail

6. Report reveals 120,000 problem households: Criminal culture at the heart of feckless families': Shocking report lifts lid on incest, abuse and spiral of alcohol abuse - Mail Lies Britain hit by £10bn tax credit fraudsters, claims Duncan Smith - Telegraph Meet the families where no one's worked for THREE generations - and they don't care - Mail

7. Statisticians are nice peoplewho tell the truth

8. Aims • Evaluate statistics used in public debate • Understand the process by which they get into the public debate • Source and use for national or local statistics

9. Aims • Evaluate statistics used in public debate • Understand the process by which they get into the public debate • Source and use for national or local statistics • Make misleading headlines of your own

10. Aims • Evaluate statistics used in public debate • Understand the process by which they get into the public debate • Source and use for national or local statistics • Make misleading headlines of your own • Make you really angry – If there is time

11. Plan • Suggest how you could use stats • Go through some examples • Your turn: Save Barnes Nursery School? • The worst use of stats I have ever seen

12. Death & Taxes

13. Death & Taxes Understand

14. Death & Taxes Understand Describe

15. Death & Taxes Understand Describe Convince

16. Understanding Understand anecdote experience

17. Understanding Understand anecdote experience belief

18. Understanding Understand anecdote experience belief numbers

19. Understanding Understand anecdote experience belief numbers scale conflict reliability

20. Understanding Understand anecdote experience belief • Why are you looking? • Can you reconcile the “soft” and “hard” evidence? numbers scale conflict reliability

21. Describing Understand Describe

22. Describing Describe selective process

23. Describing narrative Describe selective process

24. Describing stats to reinforce narrative Describe selective process

25. Describing stats to reinforce “forget” other evidence narrative Describe Does the narrative fit the “hard” evidence? selective process

26. Describing stats to reinforce “forget” other evidence narrative Describe selective process

27. Describing stats to reinforce “forget” other evidence narrative Describe Does the narrative fit the “hard” evidence? selective process

28. Persuading Convince

29. Persuading where stats are most abused most selective process Convince

30. Persuading snappy & accurate is difficult where stats are most abused most selective process Convince

31. Persuading snappy & accurate is difficult where stats are most abused most selective process the link between what was counted and the number is often broken Convince

32. Persuading snappy & accurate is difficult where stats are most abused Does it illuminate or obscure the truth? most selective process the link between what was counted and the number is often broken Convince

33. Plan • Suggest how you could use stats • Go through some examples • Your turn: Save Barnes Nursery School? • The worst use of stats I have ever seen

34. Barnes Nursery School • Closure is announced – 2 years time • Your Sunday School Teacher • Starts a petition • asks you & your church to join in the campaign.

35. Barnes Nursery School • “After widespread consultation the Richmond Council has decide that BNS should not take further pupils from Oct 2014. • ....other providers will give the same level of service allowing the closure of BNS with its saving of and a saving of £0.4 million annually... • ....nursery schooling will remain available to the children of Barnes and existing pupils will not be affected....

36. Barnes Nursery School • Get into Church councils of 5-6 and decide what you do you do next? • What information do you want to help you make the decision? • - I should be able to provide (and if I don’t in the grand tradition of the DWP I will make up something plausible)

37. Barnes Nursery School • What do you do next? • What information do you want? • - I should be able to provide (and if I don’t in the grand tradition of the DWP I will make up something plausible)

38. Barnes Nursery School • Half of the church councils support the closure • Half want it open. • You need to explain your decision to the church as a whole what new information do you want?

39. Barnes Nursery School • You need to explain to the press in a few lines your position. • use an honest stat if you can • a dodgy but defendable one would do aswell

40. Sources of Information Local: Methodist Advanced Mapping tool: http://www.methodist.org.uk/links/church-webmap-advanced-version Local Authority Website: budgets, local area plans and demographics Office of National Statistics: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/

41. Sources of Information National: Methodist Advanced Mapping tool: http://www.methodist.org.uk/links/church-webmap-advanced-version Office of National Statistics: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/ Department of Work and Pensions: http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?page=statistics Institute for Fiscal Studies: www.ifs.org.uk

42. Sources of Information National: Find a trusted interest group / think-tank: For Poverty: Joseph RowntreeFoundation www.jrf.org.uk Resolution Foundation www.resolutionfoundation.org/ Children’s Society www.childrensociety.org.uk Centre for Social Justice – influential but.........

43. “The lies we tell ourselves: Ending Comfortable Myths About Poverty”Baptist Union of Great BritainChurch of ScotlandMethodist ChurchUnited Reformed Church

44. Think of a family with five of these problems GETTING YOU ANGRY • no parent in the family is in work • family lives in overcrowded housing • no parent has any qualifications • mother has mental health problems • at least one parent has a long-standing disability • family has low income • family cannot afford some basics

45. Think of a family with five of these problems GETTING YOU ANGRY • no parent in the family is in work • family lives in overcrowded housing • no parent has any qualifications • mother has mental health problems • at least one parent has a long-standing disability • family has low income • family cannot afford some basics

46. GETTING YOU ANGRY Main characteristic of these families, • mother has mental health problems

47. GETTING YOU ANGRY Main characteristic of these families, • mother has mental health problems David Cameron pledges to turn round lives of 120,000 problem families in wake of UK riots - Mirror

48. GETTING YOU ANGRY Main characteristic of these families, • mother has mental health problems David Cameron pledges to turn round lives of 120,000 problem families in wake of UK riots - Mirror It's time problem families took the blame: Pickles calls for tougher action on those who blame background and childhood for their troubles – Daily Mail

49. GETTING YOU ANGRY Main characteristic of these families, • mother has mental health problems SCUM CLANS BLITZ - Daily Star

50. The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking GETTING YOU LIVID? “Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012 16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000