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designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)

Decisions for the Decade How to make smart long-term decisions?. ?. All Participate! (...expect confusion...). designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development).

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designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)

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  1. Decisions for the Decade How to make smart long-term decisions? ? All Participate! (...expect confusion...) • designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) • for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development)

  2. IPCC Latest Report A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

  3. LET’S PLAY!

  4. BASIC GAME RULES • 1. Simplification of reality No challenging the rules! • Decisions are individual • But team consultations welcome • We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years

  5. WINNERS &LOSERS Losers:Most red stones (humanitarian crises) Winning Player: No crisis, andMost beans for prosperity Winning Team: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity)

  6. Your goal: create a region ~ and a country resilient to climate change…

  7. But your vision is challenged by disasters : Devastating droughts … Effect of drought used for program Rwanda / Kenya. Photo/FILE  (Bob Koigi)

  8. Extreme floods… Flooding occasioned by heavy rains in East Africa (Kenya Red Cross)

  9. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

  10. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought…

  11. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

  12. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean… If just 1 drought occurs in the decade… …you gain 9 Prosperity Points!

  13. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean But, what if we had a second drought? Not enough protection! …triggers humanitarian crisis …NO prosperity points!

  14. 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS FOR THE DECADE Village A Village B

  15. 3. OBSERVATIONS Roll 10 Years of rainfall:

  16. 4. CONSEQUENCES Village B Village A 6 Prosperity Points 0 Prosperity Points! CRISIS! Beans Used Beans Used

  17. Let’s Play!

  18. Have you heard? Extreme Events are increasing! = Drought 7 8 2 1 = Extreme Flood

  19. The Climate is Changing…

  20. NEW MODEL for climate change... The cone can land 3 ways: Normal

  21. IPCC Latest Report

  22. A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

  23. A Model of the Gameplay Experience Decisions Info Consequences

  24. WHY GAMES for Deep Uncertainty: HUH? AHA!

  25. Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’

  26. with IPCC Lead Authors

  27. T H A N K Y O U ! ! !

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