CLIMATE CHANGE, the ENVIRONMENT and the role of SCIENCE in harnessing and producing ENERGY.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE, the ENVIRONMENT and the role of SCIENCE in harnessing and producing ENERGY. Prof. David Fegan Royal Irish Academy Academia Sinica

2. ATMOSPHERIC GAS CONCENTRATIONS CO2 :: Studies from ice cores, symbols shown in various colours while atmospheric samples red CH4 :: Methane N2O :: Nitrous Oxide Academia Sinica

3. IPCC CONCENSUS - the rate of climate change is largely being driven by mankind’s activities • Only when both natural and human factors are included can the climate models accurately reflect the course of global average temperature in the industrial era • The IPCC (02/2007) has concluded that “most of the observed increase in global averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations” Academia Sinica

4. GAS REMOVAL TIMES (Models) CO2 in response to reduction in emissions by various % N2O CH4 LIFETIMES :: time to be reduced to 37% of initial concentration CO2 – no specific lifetime N2O = 110 years CH4 & HCFC = 12 years Academia Sinica

5. Reducing GHG emissions !! Burning Fossil Fuels in power stations accounts for 40% of all antropogenic CO2 so look critically at ENERGY generation !! SHORT TERM – key is to break the nearly linear dependence between energy production/use and carbon – MUST reduce/replace coal, gas and oil LONGER TERM – need liberal funding of innovative scientific R+D in energy related sciences Academia Sinica

6. CARBON EMISSION: Comparative figures Coal-fired power station, Bombay Source: British Royal Academy of Engineering (2006) Academia Sinica

7. COST PROJECTIONS ::Comparison US cent/kWh, [2007] Source: The Economics of Nuclear Power. http://www.com.au/nip08.html Academia Sinica

8. Academia Sinica

9. PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLSEfficiency vs. cost, 3 generations Academia Sinica

10. WIND ENERGY Academia Sinica

11. CONTROVERSIAL – do wind farms contribute significantly? • Energy density in wind is very low • Heavily subsidised and quite inefficient • Frequently operate far below target capacity • UK average load factor only 27% of full power – unreliable supply of wind • Up to 30% of potential exposure time turbines are idle as wind velocity is either too strong (damage) or too weak (no drive) • Frequently find vested interests, market distortion, consumers end up funding subsidies Academia Sinica

12. MARINE ENERGY – several options • Wave energy conversion systems : estimates 2000 to 3000 GW arriving at worlds coastlines. A number of approaches under study [1] Floats or pitching devices, [2] Oscillating water columns, [3] wave surge/focussing devices • Tidal/Ocean current : 3000 GW available worldwide but < 3% in accessible areas. There are two main approaches [1] Barrages across estuaries and [2] harnessing offshore tidal streams, [e.g. KUROSHIO Taiwan] • Ocean thermal-energyconversion[OTEC] systems. Each day oceans absorb solar radiation equivalent to 250 billion barrels of oil. Costs very high, efforts focussed in Academia rather than Industry at present. Academia Sinica

13. NUCLEAR :Evolution of nuclear power revolutionary designs near-term deployment proliferation risks reduced Dresden Fermi I RBMK, CANDU ACR Shippingport Academia Sinica

14. Global uranium resources to meet projected demand - the facts: Current rate of use: 70 kt/y Current known recoverable resources: 4.7 Mt ( $130/kg U) Highly probable deposits: 12 Mt Uranium in phosphates: 22 Mt Uranium in seawater: 4 Gt In total, sufficient for at least 300 years Breeder reactor technology already proven A sulphuric acid plant at the Ranger uranium mine in Australia leaches uranium from crushed ore Academia Sinica

15. PEBBLE BED :: new gas-cooled, high temperature 456,000 spheres, each contains 9 gm of Uranium, each weighs 210 gm and is size of a tennis ball. Power level 165 MW (TRISO) kernal Academia Sinica

16. NUCLEAR GEN IV – International Forum [GIF]13 partners, stated objectives • Continue advances in safety of Generation III water reactors • Reduce production of radioactive waste • Enable economical use of Uranium resources • Resist nuclear proliferation • Continue to be competitive Many new concepts/initiatives under consideration. Now proceeding with 6 classes of reactor including SFR(Sodium cooled fast reactor), GFR(Helium) and VHTR(with high thermal efficiency) – possibility of Hydrogen production from electrolysis of water (an energy intensive process) Academia Sinica

17. Grand Challenges { GC } for the scientific community! Identification of new R & D areas where multi-disciplinary studies will make fundamental new discoveries contributing to advances in energy production, harnessing, storage and conservation. for EXAMPLE - Academia Sinica

18. GC NEW MATERIALS Novel materials, properties tailored to specific evolving needs Directed synthesis, new light materials but also mechanically strong Embracing a host of possible desirable properties such as durability, stickability, thermal, electrical & magnetic Based on principle of reversed design Prescription of properties drives simulation of atomic/molecular spatial arrangement and subsequent manipulation/manufacture at macro, micro or nano levels Ultimate goal – novel applications, energy emphasis Academia Sinica

19. Exploitingnewproperties of matter arising from co-operative or correlated behaviour of atomic/electronic constituents of matter – unanticipated collective responses Need to learn the rules of the game in order to design tools facilitating study of this class of emergent phenomena where organizational structure emerges from simple rules Potentially rich vein of applications for structures based on strongly correlated electronic phenomena – magnetism, superconductivity, ferroelectricity, self assembly - control systems predicated on atomic level dynamics GC EMERGENT PHENOMENA Academia Sinica

20. Quantum control operates naturally in various physical processes – Photosynthesis, Superconductivity etc. Must aspire to emulation on very short-timescale (10-15 to 10-18 s) - such manipulation of e- will be a challenge in the evolution of new emerging energy sciences, in the decades ahead. Research areas that might benefit from deeper understanding of coherent interactions between matter and energy are – Catalysis Photochemistry New device physics ( eg spintronics) GC CONTROLLING e- IN MATTER Academia Sinica

21. Biological systems mostly driven by physical mechanisms operating at the nanoscale What can be learned from such systems, about energy storage/transformation, self-repair, complex assembly? Is it possible to progress our understanding of how energy, entropy and information might be manipulated at the level of atomic/molecular landscapes? Can top-down engineering extend to this landscape and construct interfaces with exploitable functionality, between synthetic and biological systems? Or is a bottom-up approach more promising to construct synthetic device with living system functionality? GC NANOSCALE EMULATION OF NATURE Academia Sinica

22. HTS (-196 ºC Liquid Nitrogen) :: electrical current transfer without resistive or heating loss, but progress with prototypes is slow and underfunded - needs R&D cash Research needs stimulation – SC models, new low-cost materials, improved manufacturing technologies. Progress in SC research could have ground-breaking importance for electrical energy transmission grids SC could have significant role in the context of operating in tandem with remotely located nuclear power stations, lossless transmission of electrical power. Underground transmission cables cooled by liquid hydrogen? SYMBIOSIS – SC, nuclear power, hydrogen ? [Costly!] GC SUPERCONDUCTIVITY (SC) Academia Sinica

23. Could an “artificial” leaf provide near limitless low-cost energy, using water and solar energy ? Emulation of photosynthesis – individual leaves absorb solar energy, set up wireless currents, stores energy in chemical bonds Could Chemistry/Physics help power the earth cheaply by building an “artificial” leaf, through discovery of new reactions, materials, catalysts, storage systems? Goal would be to “personalize” energy production but the delivery is all about the discovery of new materials and processes to make it possible. GC ARTIFICIAL LEAF <1> Academia Sinica

24. Houses use sunlight and water to produce H2 on demand, either to go to a fuel cell, or to be reacted with nearby CO2 molecules producing liquid fuels GC ARTIFICIAL LEAF <2> Field needs much more basic research into – photovoltaics, catalysts, new materials, chemical bond making and breaking, multi-electron transfer chemistry, proton-transfer chemistry Academia Sinica

25. H2 & O2► FUEL CELL► WATER + ELECTRICITY Currently very expensive, the task is to make them cheaper and more efficient Cells could power homes, transport and portable electronic systems without GHG emissions Cells convert the chemical energy of H2 directly to electricity – “hydrogen economy”. Much more efficient than the ICE as a power source for transport But we need to find new/efficient ways of bulk generation, transportation and storage of hydrogen Optimising performance – multi-discipline challenge! GC FUEL CELLs / HYDROGEN <1> Academia Sinica

26. GLOBAL PROBLEMS need GLOBAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL COURAGE & ADVOCACY ENERGY / ENVIRONMENT [LINKED ISSUES] NEW GLOBAL ACCORD (UN Copenhagen) INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION in R&D LESS FRAGMENTATION OF EFFORT BETTER COORDINATION OF FUNDING DEAL WITH VESTED INTEREST GROUPS EDUCATE! Academia Sinica