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BACY = Basic Cycling A COSMO Data Assimilation Testbed for Research and Development

BACY = Basic Cycling A COSMO Data Assimilation Testbed for Research and Development Roland Potthast, Hendrik Reich, Christoph Schraff, Klaus Stephan, Andreas Rhodin, and many more … Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany March 17, 2014.

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BACY = Basic Cycling A COSMO Data Assimilation Testbed for Research and Development

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  1. BACY = Basic Cycling A COSMO Data Assimilation Testbed for Research and Development Roland Potthast, Hendrik Reich, Christoph Schraff, Klaus Stephan, Andreas Rhodin, and many more … Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany March 17, 2014

  2. Full NWP System – IntegratesCycledModel and Data Assimilation Foryourresearch: Work withthefullsystem! Example: Radar Data 3d Volume Scan

  3. Full NWP System – IntegratesCycledModel and Data Assimilation } Analysis Cycle { Forecast Shooting Loop • Some Arguments: • Test modeldevelopmentsandforecasts in a realistic „small“ or „baby“-cyclingenvironment (BACY) • Model developments will stronglyinfluencethebehaviourofthecycledsystemandthecorrespondingforecasts (feedbackloops!) • Just testingchangesofforecastswhenmodeldevelopmentsarecarried out isonly a partofwhatreallyhappens • Observeandtreatrealisticdevelopmentofbiaseswhichoftenarisesbymultiplyereffectofcycling • Test theinfluenceofnewobservationsandrathereasilyintegratetheminto an NWP environement (withoutrunningthewhole DB System)

  4. Regional Model needsBoundaryConditionsfrom Global Model Global Model provides Boundary Conditions BC BC Efficient Treatment of Boundary Data gme_sub icon_sub … int2lm

  5. Take Part in DA + full NWP Development KilometerScaleEnsembleDataAssimilation Hendrik Reich Variational (3dVar)DeterministicData Assimilation for ICON Hybrid VariationalEnsemble KalmanFilter (VarEnKF) for ICON Boundary conditions (repository) Harald Anlauf Ana Fernandez, Alex Cress

  6. BACY Experiments: KENDA versus Nudging Experiments carried out by Hendrik Reich KENDA LETKF KENDA LETKF KENDA LETKF Deterministic Analysis Deterministic Analysis Deterministic Analysis { Forecast Shooting Loop Forecast Forecast 24h • COSMO-DE Domain, 2.8km resolution • Standard operational configurationof DWD • Bacy Speed 1.2 i.e. 1.2 simulationsdays per day • (6 Days Experiment in 5 days) • Four Experiments with different Setup carried out (adaptivity)

  7. BACY Experiment 4: KENDA versus Nudging EnKFbasicversion ComparablewithNudging

  8. BACY Experiment 4: KENDA versus Nudging EnKFbasicversion ComparablewithNudging

  9. BACY Experiment 4: KENDA versus Nudging EnKFbasicversion ComparablewithNudging

  10. BACY Experiment 4: KENDA versus Nudging EnKFbasicversion ComparablewithNudging

  11. BACY Experiment 4: KENDA versus Nudging EnKFbasicversion ComparablewithNudging See more in Hendrik‘s Talk in the afternoon workshop!

  12. Experiment ofHErZ LMU: KENDA versus COSMO-DE-EPS Experiments by Florian Harnisch and Christian Keil, LMU (1) 15 UTC 10 June - 00 UTC 12 June 2012: → 21-h fc at 00 UTC 11 / 12 June (2) 06 UTC 18 June – 12 UTC 19 June 2012: → 21-h fc at 12 UTC 18 June KENDA: - 3-hourly LETKF dataassimilationofconventionaldata - 3-hourly analysisensemblewith20ensemblemembers - 20 member ECMWF EPS lateral boundaryconditions (16 km) - Nophysicsparametrizationperturbations (PPP) - Multiplicative adaptive covarianceinflation KENDAppp:including 10 physicsparametrizationperturbations (PPP) KENDArtpp: relaxation-to-prior-perturbation inflation (α = 0.75 ) KENDArtps: relaxation-to-prior-spreadinflation (α= 0.95 ) KENDArtps40: 40 ensemblemembers / relaxation-to-prior-spread

  13. Ensemble rank histogram Experiments: KENDA versus COSMO-DE-EPS Experiments carried out by Florian Harnisch and Christian Keil, LMU KENDAppp KENDA +3 h forecasts of 10 m wind speed EnKFimprovedversions Can improve EPS OPER KENDArtps Verified against COSMO-DE analysis (similar results against observations)

  14. BSS: 21-h ensemble forecasts of precipitation Experiments: KENDA versus COSMO-DE-EPS EnKFimprovedversions Can improve EPS 3-21 h forecasts averaged over Germany KENDA KENDAppp KENDArtps OPER KENDA KENDAppp KENDArtps OPER BSS BSS 00 UTC 11 June 2012 00 UTC 12 June 2012 thresholds (mm / 3h) thresholds (mm / 3h) • Brier Skill Score = [resolution – reliability] / uncertainty • Accounting for model errors with PPP shows positive impact • Large impact of inflation procedure 14

  15. Over thepast 8 month ICON developmenthasstronglybenefitedfrom Basic Cycling (Bacy) ICON DA Development • Basic Cycle • ElementaryCycling; principleofsimplicity • File Basedfor Model Fields • Flexible DB/Files forObservations • Usefulfor Debugging • Basic speed check for DA components • Neededforefficient NUMEX implementationandtest

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