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Understanding Air Quality Forecasting: Importance, Methods, and Health Impacts

This course provides an in-depth overview of air quality forecasting, highlighting its significance in protecting public health and managing environmental pollution. Participants will learn about the origins of pollutants, their health effects, and the necessity for robust monitoring systems. The course covers forecasting techniques, the use of data, and interaction between meteorological factors and air quality. It also includes case studies and practical insights into developing and operating air quality forecasting programs, essential for urban planning and health protection.

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Understanding Air Quality Forecasting: Importance, Methods, and Health Impacts

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  1. Section 2Executive Overview

  2. Topics • Why forecast air quality? • What is needed? • About the course Section 2 – Executive Overview

  3. Why forecast air quality? • Pollutants originate from • Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter • Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing • Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere Section 2 – Executive Overview

  4. Why forecast air quality? • World Health Organization: • Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO standards; • Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution; • Costs: • World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to approach US$1 billion per year. • In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP. Section 2 – Executive Overview

  5. Why forecast air quality? • Pollutants of concern • Pollutant • Abbreviation • Carbon Monoxide • CO • Sulfur Dioxide • SO2 • Ozone • O3 • Nitrogen Dioxide • NO2 • Hydrocarbon Compounds • HC • Particulate Matter • PM Section 2 – Executive Overview

  6. Why forecast air quality? • Health Effects: • Deaths associated with PM concentrations Schwartz et al., 1992 Section 2 – Executive Overview

  7. Concentration (mg/g) Jan-Mar 1986 (open) Jan-Mar 1987 (closed) Jan-Mar 1988 (open) Iron 107.2 50.2 117.8 Copper 163.3 50.5 327.0 Zinc 264.8 95.5 113.2 Lead 91.7 30.5 122.2 Nickel 18.6 26.9 18.6 Why forecast air quality? • Health Effects: • Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley Section 2 – Executive Overview

  8. 80 150 Steel Mill Closed Steel Mill Closed 125 60 100 PM (mg/m3) Monthly Asthma Admissions 40 75 50 20 25 0 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1985 1986 1987 1988 Why forecast air quality? • Health Effects: • Particulate Matter concentrations • Health: Monthly asthma admissions Section 2 – Executive Overview

  9. Why forecast air quality? • How are forecasts used: • Protect public health • Operate emissions reduction programs • Conduct special monitoring Section 2 – Executive Overview

  10. Good historical data set • Good understanding • Modest experience • Several forecasting tools/techniques • Higher accuracy • Excellent historical data set • Detailed understanding • Extensive experience • Many forecasting tools/techniques • Highest accuracy Evolution of a Forecasting Program Age of Forecasting Program (years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ • Limited data • Limited experience and understanding • One forecasting tool/technique • Modest accuracy Section 2 – Executive Overview

  11. What is needed? • 1. Air quality problem • Most large & mega cities have air pollution Section 2 – Executive Overview

  12. What is needed? • 2. Air quality monitoring program • Monitor network • Historical data • Real-time monitoring system Section 2 – Executive Overview

  13. What is needed? • 3. Understanding the interactions • Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area • Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality Section 2 – Executive Overview

  14. Ozone (Low–High) Temp high Temp low Moderate to High Moderate to Low WS - calm WS - strong WS -light WS - calm Low High Moderate Moderate What is needed? • 4. Develop forecasting methods • Simple to complex • Statistical, numerical models, experience • More tools = more accurate forecast Section 2 – Executive Overview

  15. Data Collection Develop a Program Operate the Program Forecast Preparation Need for an AQ Forecast Revise the Program Forecast Communication What is needed? • 5. Developing a program Section 2 – Executive Overview

  16. Overview of Course • Course Content: • Background • Introduction and Overview of Course • What Are We Forecasting? • How Are Forecasts Used? • Health Effects • Understanding • Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution • Pollutant Monitoring • Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends • Air Pollution Meteorology • Case Studies of Episodes • Developing a program • Air Quality Forecasting Tools • Developing a Forecasting Program • Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations Section 2 – Executive Overview

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