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Outline

Outline. Social and economic trends Pollutants and their status Second part - solutions. Past – Present – Future (Trends). Social and economic changes. Household sizes are decreasing (less children, more divorces, less extended families) More women in labour force

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Outline

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  1. Outline • Social and economic trends • Pollutants and their status • Second part - solutions

  2. Past – Present – Future (Trends)

  3. Social and economic changes • Household sizes are decreasing (less children, more divorces, less extended families) • More women in labour force • More part-time employed persons • Urban sprawl (work-home distance increases) • Real income increased • Goods delivery and supply chain management are changing

  4. Travel behavior numbers (new not on web site!) • From the National Household Travel Survey (2001-2002) • Daily Travel is a trip from one point to another on a single day. • How We Travel • 87 percent of daily trips take place in personal vehicles • 91 percent of people commuting to work use personal vehicles • How Many Trips We Take Every Day • We take 1.1 billion trips a day — four for every person in the U.S • Daily travel averages 11 billion miles a day — almost 40 miles per person per day • How Many Trips We Take in a Year • We take 411 billion daily trips a year or about 1,500 trips per person • Daily travel totals about 4 trillion miles — 14,500 miles per person

  5. Travel behavior (continued) • Why We Travel • 45 percent of daily trips are taken for shopping and errands • 27 percent of daily trips are social and recreational, such as visiting a friend • 15 percent of daily trips are taken for commuting • What We Drive • There are 204 million personal vehicles available for regular use • 57 percent are cars or station wagons • 21 percent are vans or SUVs • 19 percent are light trucks • When We Travel • The most daily trips are made on Friday (16 percent) • The fewest daily trips are made on Sunday (13 percent) • More daily trips are taken between noon and 1 p.m. (7.4 percent) than between 8 a.m. - 9 a.m. (5.5 percent) • The Average Driver • Spends 55 minutes a day behind the wheel • Drives 29 miles a day • Men vs. Women • Women drive less (21 to 38 miles per day) • Men drive longer (67 to 44 minutes per day)

  6. Vehicle Ownership and GDP See also=http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hs01/index.htm GDP is growing worldwide!

  7. Vehicle Ownership (1998) US appears to have the lion’s share but not per capita Source: US DOT – FHWA Highway Stats

  8. Vehicle Ownership (1998) Industrialized countries approach and surpass the US Source: US DOT – FHWA Highway Stats

  9. Vehicle Use (1997-1998) Source: US DOT – FHWA Highway Stats

  10. Vehicle Use Source: US DOT – FHWA Highway Stats

  11. World Vehicle Sales France UK Italy Global production in 2000 = 59,765,616 vehicles Global sales in 2000 = 57,629,253 vehicles Source: Global market data book

  12. Vehicle Ownership (tomorrow) Source: US DOE – 50 year perspective

  13. Positives & Negatives • More highways+cars lead to: • Better access to opportunities and locations (accessibility) • Stronger economies (goods to markets, labour options) • Better (some aspects) quality of life such as comfort, independence, ability to live is nice suburbs • More air pollution (urban smog – CO, NOx, VOC) • Possible global warming (major input is CO2) • Roadway Fatalities • Congestion and lost time • Energy dependency on others Source: US DOE – 50 year perspective

  14. Oil Consumption (in 2002) • World Production • Million Barrels/day 73.65 • US Production 7.63 (10.4% of World) • World Consumption • Million barrels/day 77.46 • US Consumption 19.76 (25.5%) • Transportation Share of US Petroleum Consumption • 67.1% • Note: Petroleum= crude oil + natural gas, plant liquids

  15. Air Quality?

  16. Let’s define air pollution

  17. Why do we care in transportation? Transportation share for US emissions in Criteria Pollutants: 1999 2001 CO = 78.6% 82.4% NOx = 53.4% 55.5% VOC = 43.5% 41.7% PM-10 = 2.1% 2.2% PM-2.5= 7.6% 6.1% SO2= 6.9% 4.4% NH3= 5.4% 6.3% http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/5000/5800/5844/22nd_edition/tedb22/Edition22Chapter04.pdf

  18. National Ambient Air Quality Standards & Attainment Standard = Maximum concentration of pollutant measured for a given period of time

  19. NAAQS

  20. Source: http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html

  21. See also=http://www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/

  22. Emissions http://www.epa.gov/otaq/

  23. Source: US EPA

  24. Onroad Emissions

  25. Onroad Emissions (continued)

  26. Source: US EPA

  27. Greenhouse gas emissions • Carbon Emissions (million metric tones) • 1990 2001 • USA 1,352 1,559 (23.9% of World) • China 617 832 • Germany 271 223 • Transportation share in 1990 = 31.7% in 2001 = 32.8% • The gases are: CO2 (Carbon Dioxide), CH4(methane), N2O (Nitrous Oxide), Fluorides and etahnes, methanes etc.

  28. Regional air quality assessment • TIP (the list of proposed projects MPO submit for statewide consideration and funding) needs to be accompanied by a statement on regional air quality assessment and be in CONFORMANCE with the Statewide Implementation Plan to meet the clean air standards • What modelers need to do: • Estimate current and future population and employment • Estimate current and future travel and congestion • Estimate/assume current and future background pollutant concentrations • Incorporate the effects of transit policies and pricing options • Estimate the effectiveness/impact of existing projects Stopped here last time

  29. Conformity Assessment process Regional Travel Model Base year HPMS data (volume and adjustment factors) Estimates of VMT by veh. class VMT by roadway class Emission factors by roadway class Travel Computations Speeds by highway class Regional Emissions

  30. MOBILE models Application issues

  31. Mobile Building Blocks • Base Emission Rates • Base Emission Rates (BER) are the fundamental building blocks used in deriving emission factors. • BER are established using vehicle data for CO, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides. • Driving Cycles • Primarily used for developing emission inventories. • Driving cycles are also used to ensure the light – duty vehicles and trucks comply with mandated emission standards. • Focus on meeting the needs of vehicle certification and recall.

  32. Data for Emissions • VMT Inventory of State DOT/Fed • Predictions from 4-step models • Emission factors from EPAs Mobile software • Need to also have VMT by vehicle class

  33. Input to Mobile Model

  34. Output from Mobile Model

  35. Data Needs for Regional Assessment? • Demographics – • Regional Economy – • Household/Personal Economy – • Car Fleet Composition? • What else?

  36. Vehicle Ownership and travel increased but most pollutants decreased (USA example) Source: US DOT – BTS

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