How do we achieve our goal?

1. Where are we going? Beyond SM? Is there life after Higgs? How do we achieve our goal? John Ellis

2. ParaphrasingGeorge Harrison Quoting George Harrison If you don’t know where you’re going, Any road will take you there Which road will take you there?

3. How do we achieve our goal? New Accelerators: HL-LHC, LBNF, ILC, CLIC, CEPC, CEPC… Cosmology & Astrophysics: inflation, dark matter, cosmic rays, grav. waves, … Beyond SM? Neutrinos: CP, hierarchy, … Standard Model EFT Higgs: CP, κV,f, flavour violation, … Electroweak: sin2θ, TGCs, … Flavour: CKM, anomalies, … QCD: PDFs, hard perturbative calculations, …

4. Standard Model Cross-Sections @ LHC

5. CKM Unitarity Triangle • Many consistent measurements • Least well-known angle: γ • Important new result from LHCb

6. FlavourAnomalies No worries Wait & See Serious?

7. Beyond SM? Standard Model EFT Higgs: CP, κV,f, flavour violation, … Electroweak: sin2θ, TGCs, … Flavour: CKM, anomalies, … QCD: PDFs, hard perturbative calculations, …

8. Higgs Mass Measurements • ATLAS + CMS ZZ* and γγ final states • Statistical uncertainties dominate • Allows precision tests • Crucial for stability of electroweak vacuum

9. What we Expect What do we know?

10. Measurements in Run 1 • Open questions: • Hbb? • 2.6σ @ LHC • 2.8σ @ FNAL • Hμμ? • ttH production? • tH production?

11. It Walks and Quacks like a Higgs • Do couplings scale ~ mass? With scale = v? • Solid line = SM, dashed line = best fit Global fit

12. Flavour-Changing Couplings? • Upper limits from FCNC, EDMs, … • Quark FCNC bounds exclude observability of quark-flavour-violating h decays • Lepton-flavour-violating h decays could be large: EitherBR(τμ) or BR(τe) could be O(10)% B BR(μe) must be < 2 ✕ 10-5 Blankenburg, JE, Isidori: arXiv:1202.5704 Harnik, Kopp, Zupan: arXiv:1209.1397

13. Flavour-Changing Higgs Coupling? Update from 2015 Run 2 data

14. Higgs field: <0|H|0> ≠ 0 Quantum loop problems Fermion-antifermion condensate Just like QCD, BCS superconductivity Top-antitop condensate? needed mt > 200 GeV Elementary Higgs or Composite? Cutoff Λ = 10 TeV New strong interactions? • Heavy scalar resonance? • Inconsistent with • precision electroweak data? • Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone? Cut-off Λ ~ 1 TeV with Supersymmetry?

15. Phenomenological Framework • Assume custodial symmetry: • Parameterize gauge bosons by 2 × 2 matrix Σ: • Coefficients a = c = 1 in Standard Model

16. Global Analysis of Higgs-like Models • Rescale couplings: to bosons by κV, to fermions byκf • Standard Model: κV = κf = 1 • Consistency between Higgs and EW measurements • Must tune composite models to look like SM

17. Assuming H(125) is SM-like: Model-independent search for new physics Standard Model Effective Field Theory • Higher-dimensional operators as relics of higher-energy physics, e.g., dimension 6: • Operators constrained by SU(2) × U(1) symmetry: • Constrain with precision EW, Higgs data, TGCs ...

18. Global Fits includingLHC Higgs, TGCs • Higgs production • LHC Triple-gauge couplings • Global combination • Individual operators Preferred framework for Higgs analysis JE, Sanz & Tevong You, arXiv:1410.7703

19. Theoretical Constraints on Higgs Mass • Large Mh→ large self-coupling → blow up at low-energy scale Λ due to renormalization • Small: renormalization due to t quark drives quartic coupling < 0 at some scale Λ → vacuum unstable • Vacuum could be stabilized by Supersymmetry Instability @ 1011.1±1.3GeV Degrassi, Di Vita, Elias-Miro, Giudice, Isodori & Strumia, arXiv:1205.6497

20. Vacuum Instability in the Standard Model • Very sensitive to mt as well as MH • Instability scale: mt = 173.3 ± 1.0 GeV log10(Λ/GeV) = 11.1 ± 1.3 New D0 World average New ATLAS New CMS Bednyakov, Kniehl, Pikelner and Veretin: arXiv:1507.08833 Buttazzo, Degrassi, Giardino, Giudice, Sala, Salvio & Strumia, arXiv:1307.3536

21. Instability during Inflation? Hook, Kearns, Shakya & Zurek: arXiv:1404.5953 • Do inflation fluctuations drive us over the hill? • Then Fokker-Planck evolution • Do AdS regions eat us? • Disaster if so • If not, OK if more inflation OK if dim-6 operator? Non-minimal gravity coupling?

22. Cosmology & Astrophysics: inflation, dark matter, cosmic rays, grav. waves, … Beyond SM? Neutrinos: CP, hierarchy, … Standard Model EFT Higgs: CP, κV,f, flavour violation, … Electroweak: sin2θ, TGCs, … Flavour: CKM, anomalies, … QCD: PDFs, hard perturbative calculations, …

23. « Empty » spaceisunstable Darkmatter Origin of matter Masses of neutrinos Hierarchyproblem Inflation Quantum gravity … Run 2 SUSY Run 2 SUSY Run 2 SUSY Run 2 SUSY SUSY SUSY TheStandard Model

24. Craig@LHCP If you know of a better hole, go to it

25. What lies beyond the Standard Model? Supersymmetry New motivations From LHC Run 1 • Stabilize electroweak vacuum • Successful prediction for Higgs mass • Should be < 130 GeV in simple models • Successful predictions for couplings • Should be within few % of SM values • Naturalness, GUTs, string, …, dark matter

26. SUSY: Dusk or Dawn?

27. Craig@LHCP

28. Nothing (yet) at the LHC Nothing else, either No supersymmetry More of same? Unexplored nooks? Novel signatures?

29. Impact of 13 TeV Data so far 2012 Bagnaschi, Costa, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1610.10084 20/fb 1 5 SU(5) GUT Gluino Before After Important to take decay branching ratios into account Squark Light up, charm squarks? Before After

30. Best-Fit Sparticle Spectrum SU(5)GUT Accessible to LHC? Bagnaschi, Costa, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1610.10084

31. Impact of 13 TeV Data so far SU(5) GUT Gluino Squark Before After Before After SU(5) GUT Reach of LHC at High luminosity Reach of LHC at High luminosity   Limited impact of first 13/fb of 13 TeV data Plenty of room for supersymmetry in future LHC runs No guarantees! Bagnaschi, Costa, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1610.10084

32. Long-Lived Stau? Possible if mstau – mLSP < mτ Generic possibility in CMSSM, NUHM, SU(5) (staucoannihilation region) 2012 τstau > 103 s gives problems with nucleosynthesis τstau > 10-7 s gives separated vertex signature for τ-like decays Bagnaschi, Costa, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1610.10084

33. Minimal Anomaly-Mediated Supersymmetry-Breaking Model Squark  Wino Dark Matter Mixed Dark Matter   Assuming LSP is all the dark matter, including Sommerfeld enhancement Higgsino Dark Matter LSP is charged Bagnaschi, Borsato, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1612.05210

34. Minimal Anomaly-Mediated Supersymmetry-Breaking Model LSP provides all the dark matter LSP provides only some dark matter Wino Dark Matter Mixed Dark Matter Higgsino Dark Matter Bagnaschi, Borsato, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1612.05210

35. Minimal Anomaly-Mediated Supersymmetry-Breaking Model LSP all dark matter LSP some dark matter Wino Dark Matter Higgsino Dark Matter Bagnaschi, Borsato, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1612.05210

36. Minimal Anomaly-Mediated Supersymmetry-Breaking Model LSP some of the dark matter FCC-pp reach FCC-pp reach LHC reach LHC reach Gluino Squark Wino Dark Matter Higgsino Dark Matter Bagnaschi, Borsato, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1612.05210

37. How do we achieve our goal? Cosmology & Astrophysics: inflation, dark matter, cosmic rays, grav. waves, … Beyond SM? Neutrinos: CP, hierarchy, … Standard Model EFT Higgs: CP, κV,f, flavour violation, … Electroweak: sin2θ, TGCs, … Flavour: CKM, anomalies, … QCD: PDFs, hard perturbative calculations, …

38. Direct Dark Matter Searches • Compilation of present and future sensitivities SUSY models Neutrino “floor”

39. Direct Dark Matter Searches Spin-independent dark matter scattering SU(5) GUT Bagnaschi, Costa, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1610.10084 Estimated reach with LUX-Zepelin mAMSB May also be below Neutrino ‘floor’ Direct scattering cross-section may be very close to LUX upper limit, accessible to LZ experiment, Could also be < neutrino “floor” Bagnaschi, Borsato, Sakurai, JE et al: arXiv:1612.05210

40. LHC vs Dark Matter Searches • Compilation of present “mono-jet” sensitivities • LHC loses for vector, except small mDM NB: Model dependence

41. The LHC in Future Years

42. Standard Model Particles: Years from Proposal to Discovery Introduction Lovers of physics Beyond the SM: be patient!

43. How do we achieve our goal? New Accelerators: HL-LHC, LBNF, ILC, CLIC, CEPC, CEPC… Cosmology & Astrophysics: inflation, dark matter, cosmic rays, grav. waves, … Beyond SM? Neutrinos: CP, hierarchy, … Standard Model EFT Higgs: CP, κV,f, flavour violation, … Electroweak: sin2θ, TGCs, … Flavour: CKM, anomalies, … QCD: PDFs, hard perturbative calculations, …

44. Projected e+e- Colliders:Luminosity vs Energy Prioritize energy or luminosity at low E? LHC Run 2 will guide us

45. CLIC Sensitivities to Dimension-6 Operators 350 GeV 3 TeV Sensitivity enhanced by higher centre-of-mass energy Global fit Individual operators Omitting W+W- JE, Roloff, Sanz & Tevong You, in preparation

46. CLIC Sensitivities to Dimension-6 Operators Individual operators Global fit Sensitivity enhanced by higher centre-of-mass energy JE, Roloff, Sanz & Tevong You, in preparation

47. Future Circular Colliders The vision: explore 10 TeV scale directly (100 TeVpp) + indirectly (e+e-)

48. FCC-eeSensitivities to Dimension-6 Operators EWPTs and Higgs • Shadings of green: • Effect of including TGCs at ILC Higgs and TGCs • Shadings: • With/without theoretical EWPT uncertainties JE & Tevong You, arXiv:1510.04561

49. Higgs Cross Sections • At the LHC and beyond:

50. Squark-Gluino Plane Discover 12 TeVsquark, 16 TeVgluino @ 5σ