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Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts

The Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts presented to the Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure, and Reform on October 7, 2014, outlined key insights into international developments affecting Ireland's economy. A mixed picture among trading partners is noted, with "lowflation" dominating the euro area. Core inflation in Ireland has shown steady growth since February. Robust retail sales and strong goods exports underline a strengthening real economy, with forecasts for the labour market indicating continued improvement. However, risks from external geopolitical tensions and low growth remain.

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Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts

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  1. Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Presentation to Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform 7 October 2014

  2. International Developments & Inflation

  3. Mixed picture among trading partners

  4. “lowflation” is prevailing in euro area Source : Eurostat

  5. Core inflation in Ireland rising steadily since February

  6. Real economy

  7. Strength in retail sales has continued into Q3

  8. Investment has been driven by ‘core’ M&E and construction

  9. National accounts measure of goods exports very strong

  10. Outlook and labour market

  11. Endorsed Budget 2015 forecasts

  12. Continued improvements in the labour market

  13. Labour market outlook

  14. Drivers of labour market outlook

  15. Summary • Recovery is gaining momentum and widening • Forecasts are being revised upwards for this year and next • No-policy-change assumption is made for these forecasts • Subject to revision on Budget day

  16. Risks • External • Geo-political tensions • Weak growth and low inflation in the euro area • Financial market risks • Domestic • Potential for more rapid recovery in investment

  17. End

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