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“Look, I’m underage ... ” “Sold!”

“Look, I’m underage ... ” “Sold!”. Tobacco Sales Increase when Real ID Is Shown. Arnold H. Levinson, Ph.D. University of Colorado Stacy Hendershott Colorado Tobacco Enforcement Unit. Compliance Check Survey. Six CO urban-suburban counties Census of outlets (n=1083)

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“Look, I’m underage ... ” “Sold!”

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  1. “Look, I’m underage ... ”“Sold!” Tobacco Sales Increasewhen Real ID Is Shown Arnold H. Levinson, Ph.D. University of Colorado Stacy Hendershott Colorado Tobacco Enforcement Unit

  2. Compliance CheckSurvey • Six CO urban-suburban counties • Census of outlets (n=1083) • State-issued ID with true age • Same minors varied use of ID • One attempt per outlet

  3. Comparison of Conditions,ID vs. No ID Balanced: • Male – Age • Clerk gender, perceived age – Day of week – Clerk asked for ID

  4. Overall sales rate: 12.7% • Asked to see ID: 87.2% • Relative risk (RR) if ID not asked: 7.1 (p<0.0001)

  5. Sales Rates,ID Used vs. Not Used (ID Always Requested) Relative risk of sale when ID used: 6.2 (p<0.0001)

  6. % of Attempts Ending in Sale,By MinorCases Where ID Was Requested

  7. What if … Logistic model of sale with varied ID condition Significant covariates: • minor gender • ages 14 & 17 • clerk age <30 • Weekdays • two counties • asked for ID

  8. What’s Going On? • Possible explanations: • Too busy to do it right? • Can’t calculate? • Think showing ID implies 18+? • Think law requires just showing ID? • Ask just for appearances?

  9. Implications for Compliance Checks • Carry ID raise rates (if clerks usually ask). • Don’t use ID lower rates. • Should we be replicating real purchase practices? • How often do kids use ID for real attempts.

  10. The Compliance-Use Gap:Real or artifact?

  11. The Issue: Fewer sales less smoking

  12. Clerk failure to ask IDof underage cigarette customers(same counties, time period) Real (n=590) Simulated (n=1083)

  13. Sales Rates,Real vs. Simulated Tries

  14. Conclusions • Real underage shoppers asked for ID less than compliance checkers. • Interpretations: • Different looks and actions. • Real underage shoppers don’t choose stores randomly.

  15. A few outlets and circumstances can meet adolescent demand. • To Do: • Target stores routinely selling underage. • Target proxy-buying and social giving. • Evaluate impact of comprehensive access control on adolescent smoking.

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