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INTEREST AND PRICES

INTEREST AND PRICES. MICHAEL WOODFORD. MICROFOUNDED CAGAN-SARGENT PRICE LEVEL DETERMINATION UNDER MONETARY TARGETING. FLEX-PRICE, COMPLETE-MARKETS MODEL. Complete Markets. Value of portfolio with payoff D. = price kernel. Interest coefficient for riskless asset. Riskless Portfolio.

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INTEREST AND PRICES

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  1. INTEREST AND PRICES MICHAEL WOODFORD

  2. MICROFOUNDED CAGAN-SARGENT PRICE LEVEL DETERMINATION UNDER MONETARY TARGETING FLEX-PRICE, COMPLETE-MARKETS MODEL

  3. Complete Markets Value of portfolio with payoff D = price kernel

  4. Interest coefficient for riskless asset Riskless Portfolio

  5. Budget Constraint Where T is the transfer payments based on the seignorage profits of the central bank, distributed in a lump sum to the representative consumer

  6. No Ponzi Games: For all states in t+1 For all t, to prevent infinite c The equivalent terminal condition

  7. Lagrangian

  8. Transversality condition: Flow budget constraint:

  9. Market Equilibrium Market solution for the transfers T

  10. Monetary Targeting: BC chooses a path for M Fiscal policy assumed to be: Equilibrium is S.t. Euler-intertemporal condition condition FOC-itratemporal condition TVC Constraint For given

  11. We study equilibrium around a zero-shock steady state:

  12. Derive the LM Curve From the FOC: At the steady state:

  13. Separable utility : Define: The “hat” variables are proportional deviations from the steady state variables.

  14. Similar to Cagan’s semi-elasticity of money demand

  15. We log-linearize around zero inflation define Log-linearize the Euler Equation and transform it to a Fisher equation: Elasticity of intertemporal substitution g is the “twist” in MRS between m and c

  16. Add the identity We look for solution given exogenous shocks

  17. Solution of the system This is a linear first-order stochastic difference equation ,where, Exogenous disturbance (composite of all shocks):

  18. given There exists a forward solution: From which we can get a unique equilibrium value for the price level: This is similar to the Cagan-Sargent-wallace formula for the price level, but with the exception that the Lucas Critique is taken care of and it allows welfare analysis.

  19. I. Interest Rate Targeting based on exogenous shocks Choose the path for i; specify fiscal policy which targets D: Total end of period public sector liabilities. Monetary policy affects the breakdown of D between M and B: No multi-period bonds Beginning of period value of outsranding bonds End of period, one-period risk-less bonds

  20. Steady state (around ) fix

  21. PRICE LEVEL IS INDETERMINATE: Real balances are unique Future expected inflation is unique Is unique But, neither Can uniquely be determined!

  22. To see the indeterminancy, let “*” denote solution value: v is a shock, uncorrelated with (sunspot), the new triple is also a solution, thus: Price level is indeterminate under the interest rule!

  23. II. Wicksellian Rules: interest rate is a function of endogenous variables (feedback rule) V=control error of CB Fiscal Policy Exogenous Endogenous

  24. Steady State: Log-linearize:

  25. We can find two processes Add the identity

  26. 1), 2) and 3) yield: P is not correlated to the path of M: money demand shocks affect M, but do not affect P; the LM is not used in the derivation of the solution to P.

  27. FEATURES: • Forward looking • Price is not a function of i; rather , a function of the feedback rule and the target • suppose

  28. Additionally: • If Price level instability can be reduced by raising , an automatic response.

  29. Note, also that • Big • Small , reduces the need for accurate observation of , almost complete peg of interest rate

  30. The path of the money supply: By using LM, we can still express But we must examine existence of a well-defined demand for money. There’s possibly liquidity trap

  31. III. TAYLOR (feedback) RULE • Steady state Assume:

  32. Taylor principle: Is predetermined

  33. Transitory fluctuations in Create transitory fluctuations in Permanent shifts in the price level P.

  34. Optimizing models with nominal rigidities Chapter 3

  35. First Order Conditions:

  36. Firm’s Optimization: Nominal Real

  37. Natural Level of Output

  38. Log-linearization of real mc: Partial-equilibrium relationship?

  39. ‘where Elasticity of marginal product of labor wrt output Elasticity of wage demands, wrt to output holding marginal utility of income constant

  40. ONE-PERIOD NOMINAL RIDIGITY Same as before, except for Y need not be equal to the natural y

  41. A Neo-Wicksellian Framework THE IS: Ct = consumption aggregate = = gross rate of increase in the Dixit-Stiglitz price index Pt

  42. Equilibrium condition: A log-linear approximation around a deterministic steady state yields the IS schedule: g=crowding out term due to fiscal shock

  43. Effect on fiscal shock on C Equivalent to the fiscal shock

  44. New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Deviation of natural output due to supply shock Demand determined output deviations Taylor Rule: Inflation target

  45. Output gap: 3-EQUATION EQUILIBRIUM SYSTEM: Proportion of firm that prefix prices IS-curve involves an exogenous disturbance term:

  46. INTEREST RULE AND PRICE STABILITY THE NATURAL RATE OF INTEREST

  47. Percentage deviation of the natural rate of interest from its steady-state value

  48. Inflation targeting at low, positive, inflation Composite disturbances

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