Dr. Ranbir Singh Rana , Scientist (Agronomy) Centre for Geo-informatics Research and Training

1. Application of Extended Range forecast for climate risk management in agriculture in H.P. International Agriculture Risk Management Workshop EFRS Project-GOI, ANGRAU,27-30 April,09 Dr. Ranbir Singh Rana , Scientist (Agronomy) Centre for Geo-informatics Research and Training CSKHPKV Palampur

2. Study area & Map of H.P. Study District Apple Study District Wheat

3. Wheat Area – Rabi season • Apple growing areas in H.P.

4. Data Documentation • Study site Kullu and Kangra. Data Available: Kullu:(Bajaura and Katrian) Weather trends data 26 years. Rainfall, temp, Sunshine ,RH,Winds and Evaporation, sensitivity of crop production w.r.t. rainfall and temperature Kangra:( Palampur, Nurpur): 34 years –Rainfall, temp,Sunshine ,RH,Windsand Evaporation, sensitivity of crop production w.r.t. rainfall and temperature.

5. Data Available

6. Climatic Types Snow, glaciers and glacial lakes Frigid Continental Alpine Meadows (herbs, lichens and mosses) Alpine Continental Small millets, barley, seed potato peas, French bean, buckwheat apple, grapes almonds walnuts apricot sheep farming, High value crops kalazira, kuth, hops, cumin and saffron Cold Temperate continental monsoon Wheat, barley, rice, potato, off season vegetables, peas, French bean, buckwheat, apple, temperate fruits, pear, cherry, walnut etc. Cool Temperate continental monsoon Wheat, barley, rice, maize, potato, off season vegetables ,ginger, peach, pear,plum, apricot, almond etc. Chir pines Warm Temperate continental monsoon Wheat, barley, rice, maize, pulses, oilseeds vegetables, Ginger ,citrus, mango litchi etc. Sub Tropical continental monsoon

7. Cropping Systems in the Himachal Pradesh

8. TEMPORAL CHANGES IN CROPPING PATTERN IN HIMACHAL PRADESH, 1972-73 TO 2003-04(per cent to total cropped area) Source : Annual Season and Crop Reports

9. Temperature Change in 31 Years in Kangra (Palampur)

10. Rainfall Amount& Mean temp Change in 31 Years in Kangra

11. Temperature Change in 18 Years Bajaura (Kullu valley)

12. Mean Temperature& Rainfall Change in 18 Years Bajaura (Kullu)

13. Yield Trends of major crops in Kangra

14. Impact of changing climate on wheat( Based on 21 years data)

15. Yield Trends of major crops in Kullu

17. Changing chilling requirements of apple in H.P.( Based on last 15-18 years data and using Utah ,USA Model) • 6-19 Chill hours decreasing per year at Bajaura and Shimla • 306 at Bajaura and 266 at Shimla chill hours decreased due to climate change

18. Farmers Perceptions on Climate (Percent multiple response)

19. Pest and disease of crops in Kangra Insect Maize : i) Cutworms-June ii) Stem borer-July-August Rice i) leaf folder-July ii) Stem borer iii) Leaf hopper iv) Rice hispa-Nursery Wheat i) Termites-November Potato i) Cutworms ii) White grubs iii) Potato tuber moth Feb-March High temp &RH • Diseases • Maize : i) Leaf blight-July first week, High RH Rice: i) Blast-June to July ii) Brown spot(False smut)-June ,July Wheat i) Rust Yellow January- Dry conditions ii) Powdery mildew Jan end- Dry conditions Potato i) Late blight- March High Moisture conditions

20. Pest and disease of crops in Kullu Diseases Maize : i) Leaf blight-July first week, High RH Rice: i) Blast-June to July ii) Brown spot (False smut)-June ,July Wheat i) Rust Yellow January- Dry conditions ii) Powdery mildew Jan end- Dry conditions Apple i) Scab -June ,July ii) Pre mature leaf fall-July, August iii) Collar Rot- Through out year • Insect • Maize : i) Cutworms-June ii) Stem borer-July-August Rice: i) leaf folder ii) Stem borer iii) Leaf hopper iv) Rice hispa-Nursery Apple i) Woolly aphids-March Onwards ii) Sanjose Scale-Through Year iii) Mites-March onward

21. Livelihood Options In Kullu District

22. Livelihood Options In Kangra District

23. State Agricultural Production & Cropped Area (2005/06)

24. Farm Size in the State • Majority of farmer: Small & marginal Farmers • Approx. 729, 000 farmers & 84.5% • Their Major Crops are Food Grain Crops. • Vegetables (7%) & fruits (18%) in limited area. • Agricultural Census 1995/96 (Published 2005)

25. Average Farm Size • Average Farm Size: 0.75ha • Family Size: 5.9 persons • Cropped area of Average Farm Household • ( DoA Data 2005/06 through Agric. Block Offices)

26. Relevant Agriculture Polices and Programs • Need based infrastructure for assured irrigation • Promotion of Diversification through interventions like protected Agr., Marketing infrastructure and niche based organic farming • Productivity of conventional crops • Integrated hill farming Development-ATMA • National watershed development program for rainfed agriculture. • Soil and water conservation programs

27. Key Institutions • Kangra • CSKHPKV, Palampur mandated with to provide Research extension in agriculture and animals Sciences • KVK –Kangra-Extension agency • Institute of Himalayan Bio-resources Technology-Mandated to provide R&D support on medicinal plants etc. • Horticultural Regional Research station & processing centre • Department of Agriculture extension network • Kullu • Regional Research station, CSKHPKV • Regional Research station Hort & Forestry. University • Department of agriculture & horticulture extension network • KVK-CSKHPKV • Snow and Avalanche study Establishments • GB Pant Institute-Research station • NGOS: Lahual potato society(LPS), -Kullu • Society of technical development (STD) –Mallori, Kullu • Centre for up liftment of rural economy (CURE),Kullu • Jagritti: women organization for livelihood alleviation,Kullu • Fruit growers associations-Patlikoo Kullu

28. Thanks Jai Kisan Jai Vigyan