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Iran Country Study

Iran Country Study. By Adam Shirtz, Beatrice Niyibizi, Fatemeh Mohammadi, Jesse Anderson, Matthew Shirtz, William Dawson. Foreign Relations and Current Affairs. IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL/CRISIS - HISTORY Tensions date back to 1953 Civilians were angry country was becoming more Western -> revolution

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Iran Country Study

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  1. Iran Country Study By Adam Shirtz, Beatrice Niyibizi, Fatemeh Mohammadi, Jesse Anderson, Matthew Shirtz, William Dawson

  2. Foreign Relations and Current Affairs IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL/CRISIS - HISTORY • Tensions date back to 1953 • Civilians were angry country was becoming more Western -> revolution • US cut of diplomatic ties • Iran paused nuclear program • Started back up in late 80s during Iran-Iraq War • 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal • AKA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) • P5+ 1 US, Britain, China, France, Russia, Germany

  3. Foreign Relations and Current Affairs IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL/CRISIS - 2015 • Iran and the international community shook on a deal to curb the country’s nuclear enthusiasm • US/EU nuclear watchdogs hit Iran with heavy economic sanctions crippling their economy • Iran would redesign, convert, and reduce its nuclear facilities in order to lift sanctions The ministers of foreign affairs of France, Germany, the European Union, Iran, the United Kingdom and the United States as well as Chinese and Russian diplomats announcing the framework for a comprehensive agreement on the Iran nuclear program

  4. Foreign Relations and Current Affairs IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL/CRISIS - SANCTIONS • U.N. sanctions included: • A ban on the supply of heavy weaponry and nuclear-related technology to Iran • A block on arms exports • An asset freeze on key individuals and companies • EU Sanctions included: • Restrictions on trade in equipment which could be used for uranium enrichment • An asset freeze on a list of individuals and organisations that the EU believed were helping advance the nuclear programme, and a ban on them entering the EU • A ban on any transactions with Iranian banks and financial institutions + ban on the import, purchase and transport of Iranian crude oil and natural gas - the EU had previously accounted for 20% of Iran's oil exports • European companies were also stopped from insuring Iranian oil shipments.

  5. Foreign Relations and Current Affairs IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL/CRISIS - U.S. and IRAN • US sanctions included: • Sanctions aimed at Iran's financial, oil and petrochemical sectors • Sanctions prohibiting almost all trade with Iran except • Export of medical and agricultural equipment & humanitarian assistance • US has imposed successive rounds of sanctions since the 1979 Tehran hostage crisis • May 2018 under President Trump United States officially withdrew from the agreement after Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum ordering the reinstatement of harsher sanctions • Iran's President - Hassan Rouhani said he had ordered the country's atomic industry to be ready to restart industrial uranium enrichment • While the country's foreign minister said he would work with the pact's remaining partners • In May 2019 the IAEA certified that Iran was abiding by the main terms of the deal

  6. Historical Development: Foreign Relations and Current Issues -Threat Perception Iran’s leaders are apparently motivated, at least to some extent, by the perception of threats to their regime and their national interests posed by the United States and its allies. -Ideology The ideology of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution –which ousted a secular, authoritarian leader and established a Shia cleric-dominated regime, still infuses Iran’s foreign policy.

  7. Historical Development: Foreign Relations and Current Issues Factional Interests, Competition, and Public Opinion -Iran’s foreign policy often appears to reflect differing approaches and outlooks among key players and interest groups. Instruments of Iran’s National Security Strategy -Iran employs a number of different methods and mechanisms to implement its foreign policy. Such as : • Support to Allied Regimes and Groups and Use of Terrorism • Direct Military Action/Cyber Attacks

  8. Historical Development: Foreign Relations and Current Issues Iran’s Nuclear and Defense Programs Iran has pursued a wide range of defense programs, as well as a nuclear program that the international community perceived could be intended to eventually produce a nuclear weapon. -JCPOA(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) -Joint Plan of Action (JPA) -The Trump Administration and the Deterioration of the JCPOA

  9. Historical Development: The Pahlavi Dynasty 1926: Reza Khan is crowned Reza Shah Pahlavi 1935: Iran becomes the official name, replacing Persia 1941: Reza Pahlavi, is removed in favor of his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi 1953: Prime Minister Mossadeq overthrown in coup; General Fazlollah Zahedi proclaimed Prime Minister 1963: The “White Revolution” program is launched by the Shah 1978: Martial Law imposed- Policies alienated clergy leading to riots, strikes and mass demonstrations

  10. Historical Development: Iran’s Islamic State 1979: Shah is exiled, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini becomes the leader of Iran which becomes an Islamic Republic- this was the Iranian revolution 1980: Abolhasan Bani-Sadr is the first president elected, nationalization is a major issue for him- dismissed in 1981 1985: Iran-Contra affair- attempted release of American hostages through a secret arms deal. 1989: Ayatollah Khomeini dies, President Khamene’i appointed supreme leader

  11. Historical Development: A Nuclear Iran 2002: Russia begins building Iran’s first nuclear reactor, despite United States objection. 2004: Iran refuses to allow IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) investigations into nuclear program 2005: Iran found to be in violation of nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by IAEA, claims non-violent purposes 2006: Iran fails to stop Uranium enrichment per IAEA deadline requirements 2007: United States imposes toughest sanctions in 30 years 2008: UN Security Council unanimously passes resolutions demanding Iran stop enrichment, passed after Russia gave no support to calls for more sanctions

  12. Historical Development: A Nuclear Iran 2009: Iran admits having a new Uranium enrichment plant, claims peaceful purposes 2010: Tighter sanctions from UN Security Council 2012: EU boycotts Iranian oil; Iran reported to have doubled Uranium output and restricting IAEA inspections; Iranian currency loses 80% of its value compared to 2011 values 2014: IAEA announces Iran has neutralized half its higher-enriched uranium stockpile 2015: Iran Nuclear Deal: allows inspection from UN and limitations on nuclear production 2018: Trump withdraws US from Iran Nuclear Deal, Iran warns of increased production 2019: Tensions between the US have risen with Iran seizing oil tankers and overall being more hostile towards the US

  13. Political Regime: Overview • NOT a dictatorship - It’s a democratic theocracy • Democratic elections for President • Religious motives for political decisions • Brief information about less covered subjects: • Judiciary • Previous political regime was a patriotic monarchy

  14. Political Regime: Institutions

  15. Political Regime: Parliament • Overview: • 290 members • Unicameral legislative body • Public elections every 4 years • Responsibilities: • Draft Legislation • Ratify international treaties • Approve the budget

  16. Political Regime: President • Overview and responsibilities: • Second highest ranking individual in Iran • Limited power • Under him are 8 vice presidents and 22 cabinet ministers

  17. Political Regime: Assembly of Experts • Overview and responsibilities: • 86-member body (5 are members of the Council of Guardians) • Elected every 8 years • Council of Guardians approve people wanting to run for the Assembly • Appoint and dismiss the Supreme Leader

  18. Political Regime: Council of Guardians • Overview: • 12 members • 6 appointed by the Supreme Leader, 6 appointed by the Parliament • Responsibilities: • Interpret the constitution • Act as a check on Parliament • Approve potential Presidential and Parliament candidates

  19. Political Regime: Supreme Leader • Sets the direction and tone of everything • Commander-in-chief • Appoint and dismiss leaders in many areas of government and state • Leaders of judiciary • Supreme commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard • Half of the Council of Guardians • Has about 2000 representatives throughout governing bodies

  20. Political Regime: The Expediency Council • Overview and responsibilities: • Created in 1988 to settle Parliament and Council of Guardian’s stalemates • Advisory body to the Supreme Leader • 34 member group • Generally sides with Council of Guardians

  21. US-Iran Relations: Brief History • 1953 • CIA and MI6 fund coup to overthrow PM Mohammed Mossadeq • 1979 • Iranian Revolution: US backed Shah flees Iran • After Revolution: Protestors storm US embassy and take hostages for 444 days • 2000’s • West begins to fear Iran creating Nuclear Weapons • UN, US, EU level economic sanctions and causes devaluation of Iran’ currency • 2013-2016 • Nuclear Deal negotiations begins, • 2015: Iran agrees • 2018 • Trump pulls out of nuclear deal • 2019 • US Aircraft Carrier moved into Gulf of Oman • May/June: 6 oil tankers hit by explosives in the Gulf US accuses Iran • June 20: Iran shoots down US Military Drone flying over their airspace

  22. Current Conflicts and Origins • Iranian people and government distrusts US government • Shah viewed as puppet for American interests • Iran has expected war with US for decades • US and others classify Iran as a State Sponsor of Terror • Accused of sponsoring Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Groups, and Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) • Iran views them as liberation movements not terror groups

  23. Political Economy Iranian Political Reform Centered around Economic Concerns: Post revolutionary government toward international ties to world economy: Profit and wealth as corrupting influences in 1979 Constitution The Revolution considered Shah’s attempts to westernize the country as toxic Pavlavi reign: Leaders siphoned off wealth Ignored public as main revenue source

  24. Political Economy Control of Oil, Same Effect: Government still ignored public and rights of citizens Oil could be exported to develop economy Government sought policy of greater self-sufficiency

  25. Political Economy International Economic Sanctions driven away Investment: 2016: Nuclear Deal makes investors hesitant about investment 2018: Trump Administration withdrew from Nuclear Deal making U.S. break with European allies and reinstating economic sanctions

  26. Political Economy Private Sector vs State-Owned Industries, Bonyads: Many private industries were nationalized after their owners fled the revolution Private industry assets turned over to bonyads Control assets and industries Private sector relatively small and dominated by small businesses

  27. Political Economy Oil=Resource Trap Generally raised income at all levels Should have made Iran richer country Made Iran poorer and limited rights of private sector

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