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Drought Update and Forecast September 17, 2013

Drought Update and Forecast September 17, 2013. Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey. When you want rain…. Schedule a drought talk!. Drought in Pictures. North of Guymon, OK: April 2011. Lake Tom Steed – 26% capacity.

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Drought Update and Forecast September 17, 2013

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  1. Drought Update and ForecastSeptember 17, 2013 Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey

  2. When you want rain…

  3. Schedule a drought talk!

  4. Drought in Pictures

  5. North of Guymon, OK: April 2011

  6. Lake Tom Steed – 26% capacity

  7. Buffalo, OK: May 9, 2009

  8. May 14, 2011

  9. February 2013

  10. N of Cimarron County April 2013

  11. Cimarron County June 3, 2013

  12. Our 3-Year Drought Cycle • La Nina develops: Drought “begins” October 2010 • Intensified through summer 2011 • Hottest summer for any state on record • Relief began for most October 2011 • Miraculous recovery through March 2012 • Warm winter and spring! • Rainfall deficits again in April and May 2012

  13. 3-Year Drought Cycle (cont.) • Driest May-December on record • 2012 - Warmest year on record • Our climate pattern changed mid-February • Active weather pattern for most part (understatement of the decade!) • Very wet summer for most? • Mid-August through mid-September, dry • Drought intensifying some areas, being relieved in others

  14. 2013: Drought Relief

  15. Early February Drought Monitor 100% of the state in drought (100% severe)

  16. Feb. 15-Aug 17 rainfall totals Avg. of 24.5” (3.6” above normal)

  17. Summertime drought relief! 67% of the state out of drought

  18. Since then? Aug 18-Sept 17 Avg. of 0.8” (2.6” BELOW normal) 2nd driest on record statewide

  19. Drought building again 50% of the state back in drought

  20. Forecasts and Outlooks

  21. Next 7 days?

  22. Medium-term Outlooks: Sept 24-30 Increased odds of Warm and Wet Temperature Precipitation

  23. The coming cool season? No El Nino or La Nina?

  24. A Brief History of Drought

  25. El Nino

  26. Big droughts are always lurking Statewide avg. rainfall (1895-2012) 1910s drought 1930s drought 1950s drought 30-year wet signal Negative phase PDO Positive phase PDO

  27. Recent droughts are infants! YIKES!

  28. 2010-13 Drought: Final points • Two drought episodes within a larger drought period • A good summer, FINALLY! • Don’t tell folks in SW OK and other parts that the drought is over (without a bodyguard) • La Nina NOT showing up thus far! • No El Nino either, unfortunately. • Ocean patterns are unfavorable in the long term • We might be in for a longer period of “drought susceptibility” • This drought will eventually end!

  29. Thank You! Visit us at: http://climate.ok.gov/

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