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Forecasting – HIV/AIDS commodities Key challenges and lessons learned

Explore the crucial challenges faced in forecasting and quantifying HIV/AIDS commodities, such as ARV drugs, and discover valuable lessons learned in this field.

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Forecasting – HIV/AIDS commodities Key challenges and lessons learned

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  1. Forecasting – HIV/AIDS commodities Key challenges and lessons learned Moscow, March 12-16, 2006 Dr. Dragana Veskov HIV/AIDS Logistics Advisor

  2. HIV/AIDS commodities forecasting/quantification issues

  3. Forecasting challenges: Policy issues Multiple sources of funding, procurement mechanisms and distribution channels are used for ARV drugs and HIV/AIDS commodities • Standard treatment guidelines are inconsistent, in need of revision or have not been widely disseminated to providers

  4. Forecasting challenges: Policy issues Communication Coordination

  5. Forecasting challenges: capacity issues • Program targets do not take into account service delivery and supply chain capacity • Forecasting and quantification capacity is limited at country and program levels

  6. Forecasting challenges: operational issues • Data on ART services and HIV/AIDS commodities is scarce and when available is often of insufficient quantity and quality to be used for forecasting and quantification • Program expansion does not occur as rapidly as expected

  7. Forecasting challenges: operational issues • Quantification and procurement occur when funding becomes available rather then as a program planning activity that identifies commodity needs and mobilizes resources for procurement

  8. Lessons learned • Quantification exercise is time and resource intensive • Quantifications are heavily assumption based but will become more evidence based over time • Quantification should be based on realistic program plans and available financing

  9. Lessons learned • Quantification results can be used to determine quantities to order and shipment schedules for short-term procurement planning with available funding • F&Q should be reviewed and updated at least every six months and procurement plans should be adjusted accordingly

  10. Lessons learned • F&Q requires a consultative process with multiple stakeholders • The results from F&Q should be used for medium and long-term program planning and resource mobilization for ART

  11. No Product, No Program!

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