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Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G: An Account

This article provides an analysis of space weather at Comet 67P/C-G using interplanetary scintillation and heliospheric tomography data to study densities, velocities, and magnetic fields. It discusses current applications and future advancements in understanding the solar wind at the comet.

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Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G: An Account

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  1. An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G B.V. Jackson University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States (Email: bvjackson@ucsd.edu) With help from H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States M. Tokumaru Nagoya University, Japan Masayoshi http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/

  2. Introduction: Data Sets/Analyses: Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) mainly from STELab, Japan, ACE, CELIAS, Wind data near Earth, Rosetta SREM and IES data Heliospheric Tomography: 3-D Heliospheric Tomography (a kinematic model fit to data – a time-dependent heliospheric Earth view from a single location) Speeds and densities from the IPS, vector fields from solar surface magnetic field maps Current Applications: Real time heliospheric views IPS-Driven ENLIL Rosetta data and puzzles; how the solar wind fits in. Future: Better and more precise continuously verifiable analyses?

  3. What Can We Say about the Solar Wind at Comet 67P/C-G and Rosetta?

  4. Densities and Velocities on the Ecliptic Plane Density Velocity

  5. Densities and Velocities on the Earth-Sun Meridian Density Velocity

  6. Density at Earth Density at Rosetta Velocity at Earth Velocity at Rosetta

  7. How is this Done? Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Analysis

  8. IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab) DATA STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji STELab IPS array systems

  9. IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab) DATA IPS line-of-sight response STELab IPS array systems

  10. Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)

  11. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS Sample outward motion over time

  12. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Density Remote View

  13. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Density Ecliptic Cut

  14. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Velocity Ecliptic Cut

  15. Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353. • Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

  16. IPS Forecasts

  17. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Real-Time Forecasts UCSD IPS analysis UCSD Web pages Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  18. Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Fit to CELIAS data One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  19. Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Fit to CELIAS data One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  20. Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast Velocity Density Velocity Density Velocity matched to ACE, density matched to CELIAS Remote velocity from STELab IPS three-site Remote density from STELab IPS g-level

  21. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press). http://ips.ucsd.edu/Earth Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

  22. Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast Bradial Btangential Bradial Btangential RTN coordinates

  23. The first new data from the on-board Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) instrument are shown in the attached figure which presents the charged particle count rates observed in two energy channels of SREM: TC3, which is sensitive to protons from roughly 27 MeV energy upward, and TC2 from 49 MeV on. The counts observed give an indication of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) environment encountered by Rosetta at its then location at 4.4 AU distance from the Sun. These measurements were made during a solar maximum period and are a factor ~2 lower than in February 2011 which was during the previous solar minimum. This is as expected by the variation of the GCR fluxes over the 11-year solar cycle.

  24. From: Stil@nuim.ie Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2014 3:32 AM To: bvjackson@ucsd.edu Subject: Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G Dear Bernie, I am excited to have received from the SREM Team the attached beautiful signature of an SEP at Rosetta recorded in February-March of this year in, as an example, SREM channels TC1, TC2 and TC3 corresponding to >20, >40 and >10 MeV protons. Also SEP Onset at STEREO A & B ~2.5 UT, Earth 25 ~14 UT

  25. IES Quicklook plots for Aug-Oct indicating observation of solar activity Kathy Mandt, Jim Burch, Ray Goldstein, IES team Oct. 13, 2014

  26. Dates of observations of solar wind activity August 28 solar wind energy increase at ~19:00 September 1 – increased background due to SEP starting at 18:00 September 11 solar wind energy increase at 10:00 September 19 solar wind energy increase at 12:00 September 24 – increased background due to ?SEP? starting at 23:00 October 10 solar wind energy increase at 18:00 October 11 solar wind energy increase at 07:00

  27. Increase in SW energy at ~19:00

  28. Increasing background due to SEP?

  29. Increase in SW energy at ~10:00

  30. Increase in SW energy at ~12:00

  31. Increasing background due to SEP?

  32. Increasing background due to SEP?

  33. Increase in SW energy at ~20:00

  34. Increase in SW energy at ~07:00

  35. From: Mandt, Kathleen Sent: Monday, October 27, 2014 1:08 PM To: Bernard V. Jackson ; Ip Wing-Huen ; Fuselier, Stephen Cc: Burch, Jim ; Goldstein, Ray ; Susan McKenna-Lawlor ; Dusan Odstrcil ; Dave Webb ; Mario Bisi ; Munetoshi Tokumaru ; Sunhak Hong ; Americo Gonzalez ; Julio Cesar Mejia Ambriz Subject: Re: NEWS UPDATE Hi Bernie et al., We have more dates to give you for activity at Rosetta. We saw what appears to be a shock on Oct. 13 at 17:00, another one on Oct. 22 at 16:00 and again on Oct. 25 at 01:00. The data from Oct. 25 seems to have a high background which may indicate more energetic particles in the solar wind. Kathy

  36. Density at Rosetta Large X1.6 flare N14 E06 beginning September 10, 17:21 UT, and a Halo CME.

  37. Density at Rosetta Velocity at Rosetta

  38. Densities and Velocities on the Ecliptic Plane Earth Rosetta Density Velocity Real time forecast updated ever 6 hours at: ftp://cass185.ucsd.edu/data/IPS_Rosetta_Real_Time

  39. Toward a Comprehensive Model that Includes 3D-MHD

  40. Subject: SOHO/LASCO HALO CME 140418ab (Kevin Schenk)UCMEO 93001 40418 1930/40418 61325 81742 1771/ 170// 333// 4120840418 61233 81318 33118 12036 1112/99999(Frontsided)SOHO/LASCO observed two (2) HALO CMEs in close succession April 18, 2014.  The events are first seen in C2 at 13:25 UT as a bright loop in progress over the Southwest.  The front expands with extensions to a full HALO CME by 13:36 UT. The event continues into the C3 field beginning 13:30 to 17:42 UT leaving the C3 field of view at 30Rsun in the South.  April 18 2014 halo CME

  41. April 18 2014 halo CME IPS Forecast

  42. (Yu, H-S., et al., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 147-152.) IPS-Derived Boundaries for 3D-MHD Models

  43. Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit UCSD IPS Data Fit Model Ecliptic Cuts ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary Density http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

  44. Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit UCSD IPS Data Fit Model Ecliptic Cuts ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary Density http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

  45. Better than IPS or Cone Model ENLIL?

  46. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224 27-28 May 2003 CME event period Full SMEI data set, 6-hour cadence, 3º x 3º lat, long SMEI proton density reconstruction for the 27-28 May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and ACE L2in-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation. SMEI Webpages - http://smei.ucsd.edu

  47. ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager Jackson,B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177-207. All sky view to within 2º (7.5Rs) of the Sun SMEI heritage Cut-away and schematic Characteristics Jackson,B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 257–275.

  48. ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager Night skythroughput tests ASHI tests with a cooled CCD camera Jackson, B.V. et al., 2014, Space Weather Workshop, NOAA Buffington, A., et al., 2009, Proc. of SPIE, Vol. 7438, 74380O-1-12, doi: 10.1117/12.825362 Optic before diamond turning Diamond turned optic Optic stray light tests

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