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Land Sediment Calibration Final results

Land Sediment Calibration Final results. Modeling Subcommittee 5/3/05. BMP Factor. Edge of Stream. Land Acre Factor. Delivery Factor. In Stream Concentrations. Sediment Pathway in Phase 5. Edge of Field. Forest Harvested Forest Natural grass Extractive

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Land Sediment Calibration Final results

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  1. Land Sediment Calibration Final results Modeling Subcommittee 5/3/05

  2. BMP Factor Edge of Stream Land Acre Factor Delivery Factor In Stream Concentrations Sediment Pathway in Phase 5 Edge of Field

  3. Forest Harvested Forest Natural grass Extractive Barren Pervious Urban Impervious Urban Pasture Bad Pasture Hay High till with manure High till no manure Low till with manure Total13 land uses for sediment simulation Agriculture Other

  4. Pasture => Pasture Bad Pasture => 9.5 * Pasture Hay => 1/3 Crop (P4 NRI) High till with manure => 1.25 * Crop High till no manure => 1.25 * Crop Low till with manure => 0.75 * Crop Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses Agriculture - NRI gave estimates of Pasture and Cropland for each county

  5. Forest => Use P4 NRI Harvested Forest => Mean Forest * 10 = 3.4 t/ac/yr Natural grass => Mean Pasture = 1.5 t/ac/yr Bare => 40 t/ac/yr Extractive => 10 t/ac/yr Pervious Urban => 0.74 t/ac/yr Impervious Urban => 5.18 t/ac/yr Aeolian => 10 lb/ac/day Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses Other – targets estimated from literature or previous model values

  6. Wash off Generation Attachment Rainfall Detachment Land Sediment Simulation Detached Sediment KSER KRER AFFIX NVSI Soil Matrix (unlimited) 4 parameters, 1 target

  7. Decision Rules for Four Key land Parameters: Rule 1 - Zero Detached Sed after Large Storms vanSickle and Beschta (1983) Allen Gellis (pers communication)

  8. Rule2 – Detached Sediment Storage Reaches 90% of its Max in 30 Days AFFIX = 0.07673

  9. Detached Sediment Generation KRER NVSI Rainfall Detachment Soil Matrix (unlimited) Rule3 – Generation makes up significant portion of Detached Sediment • NVSI = [significant fraction] * target load

  10. Strategy: Reduce the Parameter Set • Assume ratio of NVSI : EOF target • Assume ratio of KSER : KRER • Adjust KSER to meet target • 20 scenarios formulated - Ratio of NVSI : EOF Target picked from { 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2} - Ratio of KSER:KRER picked from { 2, 5, 10, 15, 20}

  11. Strategies to optimize ratios: • Does the simulated EOF meet the target? • Does the model correctly capture the dynamic of land process? • Do the different land calibrations make a difference in the correlation between simulated and observed?

  12. Iterative simulation results • Scenarios with KSER/KRER ratio > 5 could NOT reach the targets for some of segments, particularly for Barren land • Choices narrowed down to 8 scenarios • Optimal scenario should have lower average dets and higher correlation

  13. - Dynamic of land process Land segment A42033 - pasture, KSER/KRER = 5 Detached Storage goes down to zero sometimes

  14. Different scenarios make little difference on the correlation of simulated and observed concentrations Correlation of sediment concentrations for each of 8 scenarios

  15. Average detached storagedecrease withDecrease of NVSI ratio and Increase of KSER/KRER ratio Average detached storage for each of 8 scenarios

  16. Final solution and Status • AFFIX = 0.0765 • NVSI : EOF target = 1.5 • KSER : KRER = 5 • EOF calibration done two weeks ago • Have used for river calibration since

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