Why quality in education matters And what it takes to improve it

1. Why quality in education mattersAnd what it takes to improve it Washington, April 28, 2010 Andreas SchleicherEducation Policy Advisor of the OECD Secretary-General

2. Know why you are looking • The yardstick for success is no longer just improvement by national standards… … but the best performing education systems globally • Know what you are looking for • The kind of ‘human capital’ that makes a difference for individuals and nations • How do we recognise it when we found it? • The link between skills, and economic and social outcomes • Policy implications • Understanding what contributes to the success of education systems and improving performance .

3. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Cost per student Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate

4. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Cost per student Finland Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate

5. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Australia Finland United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate

6. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

7. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

8. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

9. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

10. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

11. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Australia Finland Tertiary-type A graduation rate

12. Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education 27K$ 56K$ 170K$ 105K$ 35K$ 26K$ 367K$ Net present value in USD equivalent

13. Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining post-secondary education Public costs Public benefits Net present value, USD equivalent (numbers in orange shownegative values) USD equivalent

14. Know what you are looking for The kind of human capital that makes a difference for people and nations

15. Latin America then… Hanushek 2009

16. Latin America then and now… Hanushek 2009

17. Latin America then and now… Why quality is the key Hanushek 2009

18. OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds Coverage of world economy 83% 77% 81% 85% 86% 87%

19. High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply Not just about poor kids in poor neighborhoods but about many kids in many neighborhoods U.S. suburban (15-100k) U.S. small town (3-15k) Poland 2000 … 18 countries perform below this line U.S. city of over 1m Low science performance

20. Top and bottom performers in science These students can consistently identify, explain and apply scientific knowledge, link different information sources and explanations and use evidence from these to justify decisions, demonstrate advanced scientific thinking in unfamiliar situations… These students often confuse key features of a scientific investigation, apply incorrect information, mix personal beliefs with facts in support of a position… Large prop. of poor perf. Large proportion of top performers 20

21. How do we know that we found it? To what extent knowledge and skills matter for the success of individuals and economies

22. Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1) Odds ratioCollege entry School marks at age 15 PISA performance at age 15

23. Modelling the impact • Programmes to improve cognitive skills through schools take time to implement and to have their impact on students. • Assume that it will take 20 years to implement reform • The impact of improved skills will not be realised until the students with greater skills move into the labour force • Assume that improved PISA performance will result in improved skill-based of 2.5% of the labour-force each year • The economy will respond over time as new technologies are developed and implemented, making use of the new higher skills • Estimate the total gains over the lifetime of the generation born this year .

24. México (410) High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply Imagine… ...we could improve every system by 25 PISA points over the next 20 years (which is what Poland did in the last 6 years) Low science performance

25. Relationship between test performance and economic outcomesAnnual improved GDP from raising performance by 25 PISA points Percent addition to GDP

26. Increase average performance by 25 PISA points (Total 115 trillion $) bn$

27. México (410) High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply Imagine… ...we could ensure that every child reaches at least the PISA baseline performance level 2 Low science performance

28. Raise everyone to minimum of 400 PISA points bn$

29. Raise everyone to minimum of 400 PISA points % currrent GDP

30. Some conclusions • The higher economic outcomes that improved student performance entails dwarf the dimensions of economic cycles • Even if the estimated impacts of skills were twice as large as the true underlying causal impact on growth, the resulting present value of successful school reform still far exceeds any conceivable costs of improvement.

31. Implications Understanding what contributes to the success of education systems and improving performance

32. Money matters - but other things do too Question: If better education results in more money, Does more money result in better education?

33. Spending choices on secondary schoolsContribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costsper student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004) Percentage points

34. High ambitions and universal standards Rigor, focus and coherence Great systems attract great teachers and provide access to best practice and quality professional development

35. Challenge and support Strong support Poor performance Improvements idiosyncratic Strong performance Systemic improvement Lowchallenge Highchallenge Poor performance Stagnation Conflict Demoralisation Weak support

36. International Best Practice The past • Principals who are trained, empowered, accountable and provide instructional leadership • Principals who manage ‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered • Attracting, recruiting and providing excellent training for prospective teachers from the top third of the graduate distribution • Attracting and recruiting teachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms • Incentives, rules and funding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent • The best teachers are in the most advantaged communities Human capital

37. International Best Practice The past • Expectations of teachers are clear; consistent quality, strong professional ethic and excellent professional development focused on classroom practice • Seniority and tenure matter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality • Teachers and the system expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this • Wide achievement gaps, just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in place Human capital (cont…)

38. High ambitions Devolved responsibility,the school as the centre of action Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Access to best practice and quality professional development

39. School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performanceSchool autonomy in selecting teachers for hire PISA score in science

40. Public and private schools % Score point difference Public schools perform better Private schools perform better

41. Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after accounting for all other factors in the model School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational materials(gross only) Schools with more competing schools(gross only) Schools with greater autonomy (resources)(gross and net) School activities to promote science learning(gross and net) One additional hour of self-study or homework (gross and net) One additional hour of science learning at school (gross and net) School results posted publicly (gross and net) Academically selective schools (gross and net) but no system-wide effect Schools practicing ability grouping (gross and net) One additional hour of out-of-school lessons (gross and net) 20 Each additional 10% of public funding(gross only) School principal’s perception that lack of qualified teachers hinders instruction(gross only) Effect after accounting for the socio-economic background of students, schools and countries Measured effect OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a

42. Strong ambitions Devolvedresponsibility,the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning Accountability Access to best practice and quality professional development

43. High science performance Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik High average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities • Early selection and institutional differentiation • High degree of stratification • Low degree of stratification Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity Low science performance

44. Getting the order right Phases of development Adequate  Good Poor  Adequate Good  Great Main focus of assessment • Tackling underperformance • Transparency . • Spreading best practice • World class performance. • Continuous learning and innovation . Role of government • Regulating . • Capacity-building • Prescribing . • Justifying • Enabling • Incentivising . Role of professions • Implementing • Accepting evidence • Adopting minimum standards • Accommodating • Evidence-based • Adopting best . practice • Leading • Evidence-driven • Achieving high reliability and innovation . • Principled • Strategic partnership • Negotiated • Pragmatic . • Top-down • Antagonistic . Nature of relationship between government and professions • Steady improvement • Growing public satisfaction . • Consistent quality • Public engagement and co-production . • Improvement in outcomes • Reduction of public anxiety. Main outcomes

45. Paradigm shifts

46. Thank you ! www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org All national and international publications The complete micro-level database email: pisa@oecd.org Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org … and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion