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Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC

Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2014-15. Lakewood Chamber of Commerce March 26, 2014. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC. Outline. U.S. Economy California Los Angeles County Lakewood Conclusion: Forecast & Long Term Trends.

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Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC

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  1. Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2014-15 Lakewood Chamber of Commerce March 26, 2014 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
  2. Outline U.S. Economy California Los Angeles County Lakewood Conclusion: Forecast & Long Term Trends Kyser Center for Economic Research
  3. U.S. Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
  4. U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted, Feb. 2014: 6.7% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  5. Gross Domestic Product Annual % change, chain-type (2009) $ Averaging ~2% YTY, need 3.5-4% YTY Annual Quarterly Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research
  6. Consumer Price Index Percent change from a year ago, 100 = 1982-1984 Feb. 2014: All Items +1.1%; Core +1.6% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  7. U.S. Economic Forecast Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  8. California Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
  9. California Unemployment Rate & Nonfarm Jobs YTY % change, nonfarm jobs Unemployment rate in % Feb. 2014: 15.4 million jobs, +2.2% YTY; U.S.: +1.6% YTY Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  10. California Economic Forecast Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  11. Los Angeles County Kyser Center for Economic Research
  12. Local Unemployment Rates Feb. 2014 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  13. Significant Revisions to Last Year’s Job Market Numbers Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  14. Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment Feb. 2014: +86,100 jobs, +2.1% YTY Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  15. Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles YTY absolute change in nonfarm employment, thousands Feb. 2014: +86,100 jobs, +2.1% YTY Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  16. Container Counts at Ports of LA/LB 2013: +3.5% YTY 2014: -2.5% YTD Millions of 20 Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  17. L.A. County Transportation & Warehousing Employment Feb. 2014 YTY: +2,500 jobs, +1.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  18. L.A. County Manufacturing Employment Feb. 2014 YTY – Durable: -2,900, -1.4% | Nondurable: -5,900, -3.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  19. Value of Manufacturing Output – California Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Global Insight Kyser Center for Economic Research
  20. On-Location Production Days by Type Thousands Source: Film LA Kyser Center for Economic Research
  21. L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Feb. 2014 YTY: +6,100, jobs, +5.1% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  22. L.A. County Professional & Business Services Employment Feb. 2014 YTY: +27,000 jobs, +4.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  23. L.A. Health Care and Social Assistance Employment Feb. 2014 YTY: +22,000 jobs, +3.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  24. L.A. County Leisure & Hospitality Employment Feb. 2014 YTY: +13,300 jobs, +3.2% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  25. Hotel Occupancy Rates Occupancy rates (percentage) Source: PKF Consulting Kyser Center for Economic Research
  26. L.A. County Retail Employment Feb. 2014 YTY: +10,600 jobs, +2.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  27. U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales Percent change from a year ago Feb. 2014: +1.8% Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research
  28. Los Angeles County Personal Income & Taxable Sales Growth Source: California Board of Equalization, Dept. of Commerce; estimate & forecast by the LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  29. Home Sales & Median PricesLos Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos Sales $ Thousands Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Kyser Center for Economic Research
  30. L.A. Five-County Region Apartment Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates Note: For Apartments with > 100 units Source: Real Facts; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
  31. Lakewood Kyser Center for Economic Research
  32. Labor Force & EmploymentCity of Lakewood Sources: California EDD LMID Kyser Center for Economic Research
  33. Lakewood Unemployment Rate Percent Sources: California EDD LMID Kyser Center for Economic Research
  34. Selected Unemployment Rates February 2014 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  35. Forecast 2014-15 Kyser Center for Economic Research
  36. Southern California Outlook 2014-15 Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  37. Los Angeles County Economic Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  38. Forecast Summary Local Job Growth, Unemployment Rates Decline Led by: Health Care Leisure and Hospitality Professional Scientific and Technical Svcs Construction Kyser Center for Economic Research
  39. Forecast Summary California Outpacing US GDP Growth Rate Consumer Spending & Trade Improving Housing Market Gains Expanding Business Sector Risks: Slower than expected global growth Fed winding down policies Kyser Center for Economic Research
  40. Long Term Trends U.S. Energy Situation Technology, Productivity & Labor Costs U.S. Competitiveness & Global Trade Exports as Growth Engine Kyser Center for Economic Research
  41. Technology Adoption Kyser Center for Economic Research
  42. *** SAVE THE DATE *** LAEDC 2014 International Trade Outlook June 5, 2014 Long Beach THANK YOU! Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research
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