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John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP

The Inland Empire Why The Explosive Growth? Issues We Face!. John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP. Inland Empire Population. Greater Than 25 of 50 States. Population Forecast, 2018-2045. 2045: 6,119,497. 1,111,783. Job Forecast, 2015-2040. 2040: 2,100,712.

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John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP

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  1. The Inland Empire Why The Explosive Growth? Issues We Face! John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. Inland Empire Population Greater Than 25 of 50 States

  3. Population Forecast, 2018-2045 2045: 6,119,497 1,111,783

  4. Job Forecast, 2015-2040 2040: 2,100,712 710,402

  5. Ethnicity

  6. Non-Citizen Population

  7. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!

  8. Inland Empire A CA Job Engine!

  9. Shares of 2011-2018 Job Growth

  10. So. CA Housing Affordability

  11. No. CA Housing Affordability

  12. Price Competition Highest Price Gaps In History

  13. Housing Market Consequences • Lack of New Housing Construction In High-End Counties • NIMBY Opposition to Affordable Workforce Housing • Downzoning by City Councils • CEQA Allows Easy Lawsuits to Stop Projects • State Solution: Force Population Into Attached Urban Units • Marginally Educated Force To Move … Inland Counties Deal With the Results: • School Challenges • Workforce Qualifications • Poverty

  14. Adult Educational LevelsDictate Blue Collar/Technical Jobs

  15. Median Household Income, 2017

  16. Share in Poverty, 2017 23.5% 16.4%

  17. Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier 21%

  18. Sector Job Growth 2011-2018 2011-2018 10.7% of Job Growth 2011-2018 12.8% Of Job Growth 2011-2018 23.8% of Job Growth 2011-2018 4.5% of Job Growth 2011-2018 3.4% of Job Growth

  19. Median Health Care Pay: 2018 $62,363

  20. ACA & Health Care Demand -60% Drop in Uninsured

  21. 2019 Forecast: 4,800 Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs Shortage of Trained Workers ACA Attacks

  22. Logistics

  23. Median Logistics Pay: 2018 $47,946

  24. Skill Ladders Based on Education for PositionMedian Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2017

  25. E-Commerce 14.5%

  26. Port Container Import VolumeRecord Levels

  27. Net Industrial Absorption 21.9 Milllion

  28. New Industrial Construction 3.5% Vacancy

  29. 2019 Forecast: 9,000 Rationale: Running Out of Land in the Valley Areas Tariffs Shortage of Trained Middle Managers U.S. Growth Slowdown

  30. AQMD: Indirect Source Rule Attempt To Make Warehousing Operations Pay For Trucks Coming To Them To Slow Sector’s Growth Slowing Growth Would Close Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers Robert Woods Johnson Public Health Research on What Causes Public Health Problems: • Socio-Economics Issues (poverty, lack of jobs) 40% • Population Health Behaviors Related to Poverty 30% • Access to Medical Care due to Poverty 20% • Environmental Issues 10% 90% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010

  31. ONT Airport Cargo Another Record Volume 14.8% 1.0%

  32. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay $54,800 Lack of Growth Closes Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers

  33. CA Electrical Cost +83.5% +135.4%

  34. 2019 Forecast: 1,000 Rationale: Regulation & CA Electrical Costs Automation Tariffs Shortage of Replacement Skilled Workers U.S. Growth Slowdown

  35. Median Construction Pay: 2018 $53,322 Slower Growth Hurts Opportunities For Marginally Educated Workers

  36. Home Prices +4.6% -10.1%

  37. Industrial Construction

  38. 2019 Forecast: 6,000 Rationale: Difficulty Permitting Lots CA Environmental Quality Act Very High Prices, Low Volume, Lack of Supply Shortage of Skilled Craft Workers

  39. Median Private High-End Pay: 2018 $76,202

  40. Low Educational Attainment

  41. ONT Airport Passengers 12.4% 1989 Level 4.2% 1988-2018 Population: up 2.4 million or 108.2% to 4.6 million Job Level: up 864,502 or 133.5% to 1,512,194 Companies: up 75,133 or 187.3% to 75,133

  42. 2019 Forecast: 3,500 Rationale: Education Gap To Coastal Counties Government Tax Revenue Difficulty (internet) Professionals Serve IE From Coastal Offices

  43. Median Moderate Paying & Real Estate, Finance, Education Jobs: 2018 $57,109

  44. Home Volume: No Growth

  45. 2019 Forecast: 3,900 Rationale: Banks Hiring Less Real Estate Sales Not Growing School Budget Growth May Slow

  46. Population Serving Sectors E-commerce death High End Consumers Still Doing Well 3rd Strongest Inland Sector

  47. Population Serving Sector Pay: 2018 $32,177

  48. 2019 Forecast: 9,900 Rationale: E-Commerce Hurts Retailing Lack of Available Workers (4.2% Unemployment) Workers Going to Logistics

  49. 2019 Forecast 2018 = 49,300 Growth 3.36% Unemployment 4.2% 2019 = 38,200 v. 2018 = 49,300 Growth 2.52% 3.36% Unemployment 4.2% 4.2%

  50. Questions?

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