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The RAINS model

The RAINS model. Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe Model the full chain from sources to impacts Multi-effects: acidification, health (PM, O 3 ), eutrophication, vegetation (O 3 )

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The RAINS model

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  1. The RAINS model Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe • Model the full chain from sources to impacts • Multi-effects: acidification, health (PM, O3), eutrophication, vegetation (O3) • Grasp full picture, cover all sectors (stationary, mobile, agriculture, industry) • Includes all Europe (48 countries) • Multi-pollutant

  2. A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

  3. The model: RAINSdeveloped by IIASA Energy/agriculture projections Emission control options OPTIMIZATION Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Environmental targets Environmental impacts

  4. Stationary Sources: Cyclones Fabric filters Electrostatic precipitators (ESP) 1 field 2/3 fields 3+ fields Improved combustion techniques for small sources Mobile Sources: EURO-II EURO-III EURO-IV EURO-V PM control optionsconsidered in RAINS

  5. Scenarios for City-Delta • 1999 • Current legislation 2010 (CLE 2010): Energy projections supplied by countries or DG-TREN + presently decided emission control measures, taking into account age structure • Maximum technically emission reductions (MFR): Full application of available emission controls, excluding non-technical measuresand excluding early retirement of existing plants

  6. Example implementationof loss of life expectancy calculations • RAINS PM2.5 scenarios for 1990, CLE 2010, MFR • RAINS SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 scenarios • Dispersion of primary PM: EMEP PPM model • Formation of secondary PM: EMEP Lagrangian model (to be substituted by Eulerian model) • Urban primary PM: assumed 25% above rural background (awaiting input from CITY-DELTA) • Annual mean concentrations • RR of Pope et al., 2002 • RAINS population data, UN population projections

  7. Illustrative resultsRural background PM2.5 [μg/m3] Current legislation 2010 Maximum feasible reductions 2010 1990

  8. Illustrative resultsLosses in avg. life expectancy [months] Current legislation 2010 Maximum feasible reductions 2010 1990

  9. Illustrative resultsLosses in avg. life expectancy [days]

  10. Assumptions • Primary PM in cities 25% above rural background • RR of 1.06 [1.02-1.11] for 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (Pope et al., 2002) • American RR applicable to Europe • No effects below 5 μg/m3 PM2.5 • Linear extrapolation beyond 35 μg/m3 PM2.5 • No effects for people younger than 30 years • For each scenario constant exposure 2010-2080, cohorts followed up to end of their life time • Constant urban/rural population ratios in each country

  11. Sensitivity analysis • Preliminary analysis limited to uncertainties of RR (95% CI 1.02-1.11) identified by Pope et al. (2002) • Loss in life expectancy (days): • Other uncertainties: Extrapolation beyond range of evidentiary studies, transferability, population projections, emission and dispersion calculations, etc. • In principle, error propagation (Suutari et al.) is possible

  12. RAINS on the Internet • Report about life expectancy calculations • RAINS databases • All reports produced for EU and UN-ECE • Interactive on-line version of RAINS Freely available on the Internet: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains

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