Smallpox Martyr Bio-terrorism Modeling in Python

1. Smallpox Martyr Bio-terrorism Modeling in Python Joe Fetsch

2. Purpose While smallpox has been eradicated, reserves remain in case of an outbreak to use as a vaccine. If Variola Major was released on a population, many fatalities would result if effective measures were not taken. If this was done on a wider scale, resources may be spread too thin to handle the situation effectively

3. Explanation of Purpose This project is intended to determine the likely fatalities and damage caused by bio-terrorism using a martyr attack with smallpox

4. Scenario In this scenario, two “suicide smallpox infected terrorists” strategically target doctors’ offices to obtain a medical certificate to explain their absence from work. They blend in with people suffering flu symptoms in the waiting room, but they are already effectively spreading smallpox amongst staff and patients. A terrorist organization claims responsibility for the outbreak.

5. Scenario, Cont'd Citizens are too terrified to seek medical attention, as they are now aware that medical facilities have been targeted. This is when the second stage of the bio-terror attack occurs. Smallpox is delivered to the target city through either aerosolized delivery, or through an infected set of suicide terrorists passing on smallpox through exhaled droplets.

6. Scenario Cont'd Mass terror is created by the paradox that smallpox needs to be contained and treated, yet smallpox infection of patients and staff at hospitals causes citizens to stay away from medical facilities. A radio-talk-back host ponders on-air whether by attending the doctor to get checked for the flu, or vaccinated for smallpox, you may acquire smallpox before the vaccination takes effect.

7. Scenario Cont'd Large segments of the community avoid medical treatment. The strain placed on the infrastructure of the city brings it to a halt: planes do not arrive or leave, police at roadblocks turn back fleeing residents, and the “terror” caused by the bio-terror attack is unmatched by any previously experienced health catastrophe. The economy is bought to a standstill and the bio-terrorists now have political influence as they have demonstrated their capacity to inflict terror.

8. Other Projects Several government simulations involving Smallpox taking other variables into account have taken place, but no project has accounted for a limited supply of vaccinations and manpower Several programs have accounted for vaccination or quarantine, but few involve both and none involve alternate supplies of these resources

9. Scenario Cont'd Worse still, a rumor circulates that the smallpox is a weaponised variant from the former USSR, for which there is no vaccine. Thus the containment of infected people proves to be impossible even though WHO vaccines arrive quickly. There are not enough respirator masks to go around.

10. NetLogo Use • NetLogo was used to develop a basic understanding of the disease modeling system, but will not be used to create the smallpox model NetLogo Virus Model

11. Smallpox • Much research was done to fully understand the Variola virus in all forms and its effects on a population Child suffering from Smallpox

12. Each dot represents an Agent with a vision, intelligence, and a value describing the stage in which the disease progresses The disease has been implemented, however more accurate data is needed Project Structure • The infection, after Prodrome phase, will then progress into a more mature phase: • Ordinary • Modified • Malignant • Hemorrhaging • Confluent

13. Agent Movement The agents move in a fashion that accounts for the human instinct to avoid those covered in pustules and yet still gather in groups Away from infected and towards others This still maintains an element of randomness to account for ignorance often expressed in a human population even in case of peril

14. Visual Representation • Green agents are healthy • Yellow agents are in early stage where not contagious or visible • Orange agents are in the prodromal phase, exhibiting flu symptoms • Red agents are infected, contagious and visible • Blue agents are immune Sugarscape-based model

15. Using Python, created basic model with agents and a 2-D vision and 1-D movement range to affect the influenced movement provided by the infected agents Timeline • Research Smallpox to understand disease in order to better implement in program • Using NetLogo, obtained a basic understanding of the model of infection

16. Created a rough draft of the model for fatality Hoping to prove my data or create a more accurate representation with the contact at USAMRIID Timeline • Developed a model for infection, hoping to clarify my values and prove them accurate with past data

17. Testing • Simulation has begun, average fatality rate in a city (likely to be standard global fatality rate) is estimated around 20% with 60% infected at one point Man suffering from hemorrhagic smallpox also known as black pox – 100% fatal

18. Still needed: • Proof has been found to negate the likelihood of vaccination, and the chaos in the city would negate military assistance