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Life Limited Parts Forecasting

Life Limited Parts Forecasting. Life Limited Parts.

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Life Limited Parts Forecasting

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  1. Life Limited Parts Forecasting

  2. Life Limited Parts • Life Limited Parts (LLP) within the Aerospace and Defense sector are flight critical parts that wear out over time, either through the number of Cycles (Landings and Takeoffs) or flight hours on the part. Federal regulations require LLP parts to be maintained and tracked by serial number. • LLP functionality provides the ability to forecast the expected calendar date when the life limit of LLP parts will be reached, and schedule the service events associated with these parts and give the planning department visibility to all LLP parts

  3. Key Definitions • LLP – Life Limited Part • Flight Cycles – Take offs and Landings • Flight Hours – Customer specific; either gate-to-gate, engine running hours in Commercial aircraft fleet operations, or “Weight Off Wheels” (hours-in-the-air), generally used in defense aircraft fleet operations • LLP Flight hours/cycles Limit- This number represents the maximum amount of running flight hours the part is certified to fly before a removal event must be initiated. Life Limited parts are governed by either hourly limit, cycle limit or both. • Cycles/Hours since new – This number represents the running total of flight hours or cycles the part has participated in since its initial delivery into service. It may be derived from data included in the LLP Event History and LLP Flight History. • Lost Cycle life – This number represents the minimum number of cycles that must remain for every LLP part at the end of the Service Event. • Stub Cycle life – This number represents the minimum number of cycles that must remain for every LLP part by customer at the end of the Service Event and is used to create a separate LLP forecast based on Stub Cycle Life which may differ from the LLP forecast using Lost Life • Average flight cycles/hours per month – This number represents the average running flight hours or cycles per month the part is expected to participate in.

  4. Inputs LLP Forecast is calculated using five key inputs from the Host system:      1. Cycles since new or Hours since new by part serialnum & customer (A = IPCS_LLP_CURRENT_USAGE_BY_SN.Usage)      2. Specified life limit in flight hours or flight cycles  by part  (B = IPCS_PART_MASTER. LLPUsageLimit )      3. Lost life or Minimum remaining cycles (or hours) by part number when part is removed from service and scrapped (C = IPCS_PART_MASTER. LLPLostLife)      4. Average flight hours or average flight cycles  per month by model and customer   (D = IPCS_LLP_CUSTOMER_USAGE.MonthlyUsage )      5. Stub life or Minimum remaining cycles (or hours) by customer by part  (E = IPCS_LLP_PART_CUSTOMER_INFO. StubCycleLife)

  5. LLP Forecast • Lost Life Cycles Remaining = LLPUsageLimit–LostLifeforPart–Usage • Lost Life Forecast = Lost Life Replacement Months = Lost Life Cycles Remaining/Avg Cycles per month • Lost Life Forecast =   (B  - C  - A  )/ D • Stub Life Cycle Remaining =LLPUsageLimit-LLPStubLife-Usage • Stub life Forecast = Stub Life Replacement Months = Stub Life Cycles Remaining/Avg Cycles per month • Stub Life Forecast =  (B  - E  - A  )/D

  6. LLP Forecast (contd) IPCS_LLP_EVENT_BY_SN IPCS_LLP_EVENT

  7. Example A jet engine assembly part 1498M43P05 with 3 part serial numbers GWNGM729 , GWN00VN4, and GWNJA038 with the following characteristics : System date is March 1, 2008. Time bucket is defined in Months S/N GWNGM729 : ProductID/Model/Series = CFM56 / -5B / B4/P Customer/InstallSite = PAL (Philippine Airlines) Usage = Cycles Since New = 10875 LLPLostLife = Lost Life = 3,300 LLPStubLife = Stub Cycle Life = 4000 MonthlyUsage = Average Cycles per month = 143 LLPUsageLimit = LLP Flight Cycles Limit = 15300

  8. Example (contd) Lost Life Cycles Remaining = LLPUsageLimit–LostLifeforPart1–Usage =15300 – 3300 – 10875 = 1125 Lost Life Replacement Months = Lost Life Cycles Remaining/Avg Cycles per month = 1125/143 = floor (7.8) = 7 S/N GWNGM729 will need replacement 7 months from today in October 2008 Stub Life Cycle Remaining =LLPUsageLimit-LLPStubLife-Usage =15300 – 4000 – 10875 = 425 Stub Life Replacement Months = Stub Life Cycles Remaining/Avg Cycles per month = 425/143 = floor (2.9) = 2 S/N GWNGM729 will need replacement(stub) 2 months from today in May 2008

  9. Stream Configuration Details • Base Setup  Stream Configuration  #of details • Streams Lost Life Forecast and Stub Life Forecast

  10. Demand Summary Page • Dashboard  Demand • Streams Lost Life Forecast and Stub Life Forecast

  11. Questions?

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