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JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010

JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010 BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE IAN WHITE , Office for National Statistics, UNITED KINGDOM. UK STATISTICAL OFFICES . England and Wales Office for National Statistics (ONS)

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JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010

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  1. JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010 BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE IAN WHITE, Office for National Statistics, UNITED KINGDOM

  2. UK STATISTICAL OFFICES England and Wales Office for National Statistics (ONS) Scotland General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) GROS, Edinburgh

  3. Population statistics since 1801 John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

  4. Population statistics since 1801 • Current data on the population • Counts • sex, age, marital status, etc • Flows • births, deaths, gross migration • Structures • households, families • Characteristics • ethnicity, economic activity, health, etc • Geography • NUTS 0, NUTS 1 ……… LAU 2 • plus Output Areas John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

  5. Components of population change, UKmid-1998 to mid-2008

  6. Alternative approaches Traditional field enumeration Self-completion questionnaire - UK, Ireland Internet completion - Slovakia, Canada, UK Interviewer questionnaire - Albania, Greece, Romania Fully register-based Census - Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden Combined(any mix of field enumeration, surveys, registers) – Italy, Estonia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland Rolling Census - France Long-form/short form - USA

  7. Beyond 2011 Project High level aims • Feasibility of using integrated data sources • Alternative data sources

  8. Beyond 2011 Work programme

  9. Risks and issues • Undermine response to the 2011 Census • No population register • Data quality • Maintenance • Public attitudes • Cross-government support • Funding

  10. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources • Census • Well established • Rich data • Flexible • Small populations • Accurate • Checkable • A known quantity • But • Snapshot in time • Infrequent • Expensive • Burdensome • Dependent on public response

  11. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources Surveys • Rich data • Reactive • Low cost • Frequent But • Sample only • Estimates • Still some burden • Declining response rates

  12. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources Administrative registers • Minimal cost • Less burdensome • Continuous • High granularity But • Non statistical • Variable coverage • Variable quality • Not all census topics covered • Inflexible • Non-comparable • No control • Legal issues

  13. Data models and potential options • The Census provides a population spine

  14. Data models and potential options • The Census provides a population spine • Administrative data is used for population estimates

  15. Data models and potential options • The Census provides a population spine • Administrative data is used for population estimates • A survey or rolling census is used

  16. Conclusions • Early days • Options to be reviewed and assessed • No decision on traditional 2021 Census yet • Strong requirement for a culture change

  17. Culture change Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !

  18. Culture change Thank you Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !

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