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High-Resolution Numerical Prediction of Convection in Storm Systems

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Explore explicit convective prediction using leading efforts like NCAR (WRF model) and CAPS (ARPS model) for studying mesoscale convective vortices and bow echoes in real-time scenarios.

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High-Resolution Numerical Prediction of Convection in Storm Systems

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  1. Roll or Arcus Cloud

  2. Squall Lines

  3. Supercell Thunderstorms

  4. Bow Echos

  5. High Resolution Numerical Prediction of Convection

  6. Explicit Convective Prediction • Requires high resolution (4km or less grid spacing) • Requires high-resolution analysis of current situation, using radar, surface observations and all other assets. • NCAR (WRF model) and CAPS (Oklahoma, ARPS model) are two leading efforts.

  7. 10 km WRF forecast domain 4 km WRF forecast domain Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) Using the WRF Model Goal: Study the lifecycles of mesoscale convective vortices and bow echoes in and around the St. Louis MO area Field program conducted 20 May – 6 July 2003

  8. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Initialized 00 UTC 9 June 03 Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

  9. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Valid 6/10/03 12Z 4 km BAMEX forecast 36 h Reflectivity 4 km BAMEX forecast 12 h Reflectivity Composite NEXRAD Radar

  10. 27h WRF BAMEX Forecast Valid 6/10/03 03Z 4 km Max Reflectivity 10 km Max Reflectivity

  11. 30h WRF BAMEX Forecast Valid 6/10/03 06Z 4 km Max Reflectivity 10 km Max Reflectivity

  12. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Initialized 00 UTC 10 June 03 Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

  13. Real-time 12 h WRF Reflectivity Forecast Valid 6/10/03 12Z 4 km BAMEX forecast 10 km BAMEX forecast 22 km CONUS forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

  14. Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast Initialized 00 UTC 30 May 03 Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

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