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Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd

Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd. ~. Hordur Thordarson Aviation Services Division Forecasting Operations 22 June 2004. The Meteorological Service of New Zealand. MWO and VAAC (Wellington VAAC) Aims to provide timely, accurate and useful SIGMETs and VAA messages.

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Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd

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  1. Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd ~ Hordur Thordarson Aviation Services Division Forecasting Operations 22 June 2004

  2. The Meteorological Service of New Zealand • MWO and VAAC (Wellington VAAC) • Aims to provide timely, accurate and useful SIGMETs and VAA messages. • Seeks to improve the quality of the information used.

  3. The aim of this presentation • Discuss the VAA format and SIGMETs. • Discuss our operational experience via a real example. • What has interaction with the aviation industry taught us?

  4. The VAA format (questions) • Who was the VAA intended for? • Should the VAA format be simplified? • Should the ash envelope at +6, +12 and +18 hours always be specified? • Is the expectation of accuracy associated with VAA too great?

  5. SIGMETs • Are MWOs issuing SIGMETs when they should? • SIGMETs should be the primary real time warning mechanism for end users. • If SIGMETs are not being issued as the need arises, then work should be done to solve this problem. • The difference between SIGMETs and Advisories needs to be clear.

  6. The eruption of Lopevi in June 2003

  7. Lopevi, a volcanic cone rising 5000ft above the sea surface.

  8. Some flight routes to/from LAX

  9. Available observations from Lopevi • Initial observation: 8-June-2003 00:55 UTC: Ash up to 40.000ft+. Massive rate of growth. Colour of plume Black/Brown becoming white at high altitude. (Observer at 5000ft) • 8-June to 14-June. Received 7 direct observations. Only 2 of these mention ash above 10.000ft. • Satellite imagery was not useful.

  10. What does this case show? • A high degree of accuracy can not always be associated with VA advisories. The ash envelope can not always be described with a high degree of precision. • Good observations needed to produce good model output. Garbage in = garbage out.

  11. What about end users? • They need to understand the limitations of VA advisories. • They might gain financially by contributing to the cost of direct observations.

  12. Lessons learned from interaction with the aviation industry • Their needs are relatively simple. Information must be easy to understand. • Most important to have access to accurate, reliable information. (Useful real time data available on the flight deck). • Warnings/advisories must be timely.

  13. What needs to be improved? • Direct observations and remote sensing. • Education, knowledge of typical eruption patterns. • The ability of MWOs to issue SIGMETs. • Interaction between ATS, geological and meteorological services.

  14. The VAA format (answers) • The VAA was initially an exclusive information sharing mechanism between VAA Centres and MW Offices. • It should be simplified • The ash envelope at +6, +12 and +18 hours can not always be realistically specified. • The expectation of accuracy associated with the VAA is too great at times.

  15. Situation within New Zealand • An effective Volcanic Ash Advisory System is provided through interactions of aircraft operators, CAA, ACNZ, IGNS and the MetService of New Zealand. • The issues illustrated in the case study do not present problems within New Zealand.

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