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Optimizing Global Shipping: Emissions, Energy, and Economic Strategies for 2010-2050

This study establishes a comprehensive model exploring global shipping systems from 2010 to 2050, focusing on emissions control and energy management. It evaluates alternative transport modes, technologies, and regulatory instruments while calculating the energy and emissions costs across various scenarios. By simulating the impacts of different load types, shipping modes, and operational technologies, we aim to guide effective decision-making in logistics and trade. Key findings will highlight the optimal measures and strategies for sustainable maritime transport.

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Optimizing Global Shipping: Emissions, Energy, and Economic Strategies for 2010-2050

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    1. Additional material: aims, scope and illustrative results

    2. Model aims, scope and methods Aims: What measures to control emissions and energy? Demand management Alternative transport modes Technologies and fuels Logistics What regulatory and economic instruments can be applied? Scope: Global shipping system from 2010 to 2050; Energy, Emissions and Costs Methods: Simulation and optimisation Note: data illustrative only

    3. Model scope Calculate energy, emissions cost for each scenario For each combination of: Load type passenger, freight Mode Route Ship (transporter) size and technology Allocate emissions: Space Time Country, ownership 3

    4. Global trade and transport system schematic 4

    5. Transport system schematic Transport across nodes and links. Systems for each load type are almost independent for sea transport, but not other modes. 5

    6. Trade Products are mainly transported because the costs of transport are less than the cost difference between indigenous and foreign/remote production; i.e. a commodity may be transported from B to A if: (Cost production at location A) > [(Cost production at B) + (Cost transport) ] 6

    7. Transport: volume and distance Load lifted by distance and mode (histogram from link traffic) Load km by distance and mode 7

    8. Transport: load distance Load distance scenarios Freight t.km by type 8

    9. Ship model: operations Calculate energy and emissions for propulsion, auxiliary and port functions. 9

    10. Ship model: ship power consumption by operation Power consumption by operation Power consumption during 20 day trip: Energy = power x time 10

    11. Ship model: economics Annual costs Costs vs speed Current fuel costs Future fuel/carbon costs (300% tax) Optimum speed ~17 knots Optimum speed ~13 knots 11

    12. Scenario measures Measures : types, maximum values and combinations Measures : Rate of effect 12

    13. Ship stock model: vintage and efficiency Stock by vintage New build and retrofit efficiency 13

    14. Ship stock model: demand and changes Demand, ship size and number Stock changes 14

    15. Ship stock model: energy and fuel Propulsion energy output by vintage Energy delivered by fuel 15

    16. Scenarios Number of ships Ship build 16

    17. Scenarios Propulsion energy CO2 17

    18. Optimization - trade, route/mode, technology and operation (TRMTO acronym for this presentation) Different objective functions: Fix trade, optimise route/mode Fix consumption: minimise costs to meet CO2 targets Maximise total welfare of system Decision variables Consumption Production Route mode flows Technology Operation

    19. TRMTO Inputs Production and consumption curves for each region/country Transport carbon and costs for each route/mode dependent on route, mode, fuel, technology, operation etc. Transporter technical and cost capital and operation functions

    20. TRMTO INSTRUMENTS For example, CO2 limit, or tax:

    21. TRMTO

    22. TRMTO Route / mode data and model results Should include pipe, air

    23. TRMTO Summary output of consumption, production flows (maxima) and costs transport

    24. Trade optimisation animated This shows TradeMod seeking a least cost solution. It illustrates how patterns of tradeflow might change. This model accounts for link constraints. How might it be applied to global shipping? 24

    25. Shipping model: Data 25

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