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Additional material: aims, scope and illustrative results

Model aims, scope and methods . Aims: What measures to control emissions and energy?Demand managementAlternative transport modesTechnologies and fuelsLogisticsWhat regulatory and economic instruments can be applied?Scope:Global shipping system from 2010 to 2050; Energy, Emissions and Costs

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Additional material: aims, scope and illustrative results

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    1. Additional material: aims, scope and illustrative results

    2. Model aims, scope and methods Aims: What measures to control emissions and energy? Demand management Alternative transport modes Technologies and fuels Logistics What regulatory and economic instruments can be applied? Scope: Global shipping system from 2010 to 2050; Energy, Emissions and Costs Methods: Simulation and optimisation Note: data illustrative only

    3. Model scope Calculate energy, emissions cost for each scenario For each combination of: Load type passenger, freight Mode Route Ship (transporter) size and technology Allocate emissions: Space Time Country, ownership 3

    4. Global trade and transport system schematic 4

    5. Transport system schematic Transport across nodes and links. Systems for each load type are almost independent for sea transport, but not other modes. 5

    6. Trade Products are mainly transported because the costs of transport are less than the cost difference between indigenous and foreign/remote production; i.e. a commodity may be transported from B to A if: (Cost production at location A) > [(Cost production at B) + (Cost transport) ] 6

    7. Transport: volume and distance Load lifted by distance and mode (histogram from link traffic) Load km by distance and mode 7

    8. Transport: load distance Load distance scenarios Freight t.km by type 8

    9. Ship model: operations Calculate energy and emissions for propulsion, auxiliary and port functions. 9

    10. Ship model: ship power consumption by operation Power consumption by operation Power consumption during 20 day trip: Energy = power x time 10

    11. Ship model: economics Annual costs Costs vs speed Current fuel costs Future fuel/carbon costs (300% tax) Optimum speed ~17 knots Optimum speed ~13 knots 11

    12. Scenario measures Measures : types, maximum values and combinations Measures : Rate of effect 12

    13. Ship stock model: vintage and efficiency Stock by vintage New build and retrofit efficiency 13

    14. Ship stock model: demand and changes Demand, ship size and number Stock changes 14

    15. Ship stock model: energy and fuel Propulsion energy output by vintage Energy delivered by fuel 15

    16. Scenarios Number of ships Ship build 16

    17. Scenarios Propulsion energy CO2 17

    18. Optimization - trade, route/mode, technology and operation (TRMTO acronym for this presentation) Different objective functions: Fix trade, optimise route/mode Fix consumption: minimise costs to meet CO2 targets Maximise total welfare of system Decision variables Consumption Production Route mode flows Technology Operation

    19. TRMTO Inputs Production and consumption curves for each region/country Transport carbon and costs for each route/mode dependent on route, mode, fuel, technology, operation etc. Transporter technical and cost capital and operation functions

    20. TRMTO INSTRUMENTS For example, CO2 limit, or tax:

    21. TRMTO

    22. TRMTO Route / mode data and model results Should include pipe, air

    23. TRMTO Summary output of consumption, production flows (maxima) and costs transport

    24. Trade optimisation animated This shows TradeMod seeking a least cost solution. It illustrates how patterns of tradeflow might change. This model accounts for link constraints. How might it be applied to global shipping? 24

    25. Shipping model: Data 25

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