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Water Supply Forecasting and General Activities Overview for 25 Watersheds

This bulletin outlines the essential data required for accurate water supply forecasts across 25 monitored watersheds. Key components include full natural runoff, precipitation, and snow water content. The forecasting process involves rigorous data quality control, basin computations, and verification reviews, ultimately leading to the publication of Bulletin 120. Other activities include adjustments to forecasts, annual performance evaluations, and coordination with cooperating agencies. The bulletin also highlights multi-agency efforts in climate and snow research, alongside improvements in measurement and forecasting techniques.

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Water Supply Forecasting and General Activities Overview for 25 Watersheds

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  1. CCSS-Water Supply Forecast & General Activities

  2. Water Supply Forecast Schedule

  3. 25 Watersheds Forecasted in Bulletin 120

  4. Data Needed: 1. Full Natural Runoff 2. Precipitation 3. Snow Water Content Components Needed for AJ Water Supply Forecast Forecast Process: • 1. Data Quality Control • 2. Basin AJ Computation • 3. Verification Review • 4. Publish Forecast

  5. BULLETIN 120 – Regression Formula variables FULL NATURAL FLOW (FNF) COMPONENT

  6. Impaired-Water System

  7. Unimpaired-Water System

  8. BULLETIN 120 – Regression Formula variables PRECIPITATION INDEX COMPONENT

  9. Precipitation Gage Pacific House

  10. Precipitation Index Calculations (obs prec + exp prec)/ prec avg

  11. BULLETIN 120 – Regression Formula variables SNOW WATER CONTENT INDEX COMPONENT

  12. Castle Creek #5 (CC5)

  13. Typical Snow Survey Course

  14. Weighing Snow and Snow Tube

  15. Snow Index Calculations-High Elevation (obs swc + exp swc)/ swc avg

  16. Example of Forecast Equation

  17. Forecast Flowchart 2004

  18. Result Published Bulletin 120 Forecast

  19. Other Activities: • Median Forecast Monthly Adjustment Updates • Precip. & Snow Data QC • Annual Forecast Performance Evaluation • Meetings w/ CCSS Cooperating Agencies • Coordination of Summer Field Maintenance • Participation in Climate & Forecasting Meetings • Implement short-term plan to improve f’cast procedures and performance • Develop 5 -year plan for systematic evaluation of forecast methodology • Improve Website Snow Course Maintenance Snow Surveys / Water Supply Forecasting Gage & Pillow Installation Updates to Forecast Probilities Comparison of 80% Probability Ranges for A-J Runoff Update Course Maps D from Median (tAF) Merced River

  20. State Climatologist / Climate Research Climate and Snow Surveys Research • Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project (SNAMP) – Multi-agency effort to reduce catastrophic wild fires in the Sierra Nevada – Snow Surveys’ participation has included installing soil moisture and meteorological stations in the American and Merced basins • Contracts with the UC system for climate and snow pack research • Implementation of the USGS’s PRMS model (Feather River Basin) • Cooperative efforts to enhance NOAA’s Hydro Meteorological Test bed in the Southern Sierra Nevada • Installation of gages as part of FCO program and Snow Surveys program • Rebuilt RAWS station in Yosemite (destroyed by wind last season) • Added telemetry to existing sites in the Dinkey Creek watershed as part of Kings River Experimental Forest program Climatologist Office Updates • Revival of weekly Weather and Climate News (Elissa) • Review and archive of State climate and weather records • www.climate.water.ca.gov • Evaluation of Senor data / Identifying questionable senors • Snow Covered Area Reports • Climate Library (aka Mike’s office) • Hydrology Updates • Drought Monitor • Participation in Association of State Climatologist meetings • State Climatologist “Road Show”

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