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Research Needs * †

Research Needs * †. We are now in the “accountability” phase of MP, where we must closely monitor the layer through the sensitive recovery period. - Are our actions having the desired effects? - Is the ozone layer recovering?

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Research Needs * †

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  1. Research Needs*† We are now in the “accountability” phase of MP, where we must closely monitor the layer through the sensitive recovery period. - Are our actions having the desired effects? - Is the ozone layer recovering? Vigilance is essential during adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. - Are there any unintended consequences to the ozone layer? †Starting from Ravi’s talk on Sunday [*Adapted from: Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.4: Trends in Emissions of Ozone Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for UV Radiation Exposure]

  2. Scientific Findings (a) (b) (c) (d) ODS production ODS production Ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere ODS in the atmosphere Ozone levels-measured and predicted Global ozone change UV levels-measured and predicted Ultraviolet radiation change 1980 Now2100 “There is even stronger evidence since the 2002 Assessment that the Montreal Protocol is working”

  3. Return of ozone to pre-1980 levels • ODS are decreasing & the ozone layer is starting its recovery • Climate change and ODSs will affect the future of ozone layer • Decreases in ODS emissions already achieved by MP is the dominant factor in return to pre-1980 values Global ozone layer (60oS-60oN) is expected to recover to pre-1980 values around 2050 But failure to continue compliance with the MP could delay or even prevent the recovery of the ozone layer

  4. A balanced programme of atmospheric observations, laboratory measurements, modelling and data analysis. Particular plea for (continued) collection of long-term measurements for science.

  5. Pacific Samoa 14ºS Atlantic Ascension 7ºS Testing convection? O3 sondes Continental Africa Niamey 12 º N July 2006 Africa/Indian Ocean Reunion I 21ºS SHADOZ + SCOUT-O3 AMMA data

  6. Gaps in Our Knowledge and Future Needs 1. Continued atmospheric observations - Ozone - ODS - New releases (ascertain their ozone friendliness!) - UV and its changes • Needs recognised here include • the absolute necessity to maintain high quality GB observations • concerns about satellite data (gaps) - hi-res ozone profiles; ODS (Cly, Bry) evolution; water vapour; ozone diagnostics.

  7. Gaps and needs, continued 2. Understanding the processes that impact ozone layer - chemical processes Need for updated lab measurements, e.g. ClO dimer, ODS lifetimes - dynamical processes e.g., strengthening BD circulation; ODS lifetimes - New releases 3. Global models - Deal with stratosphere as an integral part of the Earth system - Enable better prediction of recovery and accounting CCMVal activity 4. Reporting and documentation - Better accounting for ODSs and related chemicals

  8. Important that we maximise use of all resources - infrastructure, capital and human. Overlap between programmes? Overlap of data bases? Trust fund/capacity building?

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