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Perceptions of Violence in Guatemala

Perceptions of Violence in Guatemala. Rachel Meyn Ugarte rm1021a@student.american.edu http://eagle1.american.edu/~rm1021a American University School of International Service SIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. Assen Assenov. Research Question & Research Hypothesis.

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Perceptions of Violence in Guatemala

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  1. Perceptions of Violence in Guatemala Rachel MeynUgarte rm1021a@student.american.edu http://eagle1.american.edu/~rm1021a American University School of International Service SIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. AssenAssenov

  2. Research Question & Research Hypothesis • Research Question: What is the relationship between an individual’s perception of violence and their level of confidence in the Guatemalan system to become a developed country? • Research Hypothesis: Controlling for gender, age, education, and income it is expected that individual’s with a greater fear of violence will have less confidence in the Guatemalan system to become a developed country.

  3. Literature Review • “Crime and Violence in Central America: A Development Challenge” • World Bank (2011) • Hypothesis: Crime and violence affect the legitimacy of justice sector institutions, carry staggering economic costs, and drag down economic growth? • Findings: Crime victims in Central America, on average, (1) have less trust in the criminal justice system; (ii) are more likely to approve of taking the law into their own hands; and (iii) believe less that the rule of law should always be respected. • “Democratic Legitimacy and Public Insecurity: Crime and Democracy in El Salvador and Guatemala” • Orlando Perez (2004). Used data from Latinobarometro from 1999 • There is a link between perceptions of safety and violence and effect on support for democracy. Support for democracy increases among those who are older, more educated, and feel more secure in their communities.

  4. Data • Latinobarometro Public Opinion Surveys • Conducted in 2007 • 18 Countries surveyed • 1,000 respondents in Guatemala • Unit of analysis: Individual • Dependent variable : Fear of Violence (becoming a victim) • Level of Measurement: Ordinal • Independent variables: • Level of confidence in the Guatemala government to improve development (Ordinal) • Gender (Nominal) • Age (Interval Ratio) • Socioeconomic status(Ordinal) • Education (Ordinal)

  5. Perception of Violence in Guatemala 0 = Worried (Afraid of becoming victim of violence) 1 = Not Worried (not afraid of becoming victim of violence) Central Tendency= Mode: 0 N = 1,000 (aged 18 to 91, 50% F/M) Not Worried: 12.4% Worried: 87.6%

  6. Perception of Violence in Guatemala

  7. Bivariate Analysis StatisticsDependent Variable: Perception of Violence (0=Worried/1=Not Worried)

  8. Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal Effects. Dependent Variable: Dependent Variable: Perception of Violence US 0=Worried/1=Not Worried

  9. Findings & Policy Implications • Findings • There is a high percentage of individuals who fear becoming a victim of violence in Guatemala. • The Socioeconomic status of an individual proved to be statistically significant to the individual’s perception of violence, and age groups, education, and levels of confidence in government to develop had weak association. Policy Implications • More research should be done in order to better understand the demographics of those who fear becoming a victim of violence and how to target factors that affect that population most. • Being that younger age groups were more worried – providing safe spaces in the community and conflict resolution education in the schools could be beneficial in reducing fear of becoming a victim.

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