Our Changing Climate: What Next?

1. Our Changing Climate: What Next? Richard B. Rood University of Michigan College of Engineering Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

2. Talk Outline • Coming from NASA to Michigan • A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action • Five Slides on Climate Change Science • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Openclimate.org

3. Coming from NASA to Michigan • Coming from NASA to Michigan • A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action • Five Slides on Climate Change Science • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Openclimate.org

4. My NASA Background • Complex problems with no known solutions • Analyzing Ozone Observations and Ozone Prediction • Ozone Hole • Manager of Scientists and Software Projects • Deliver Prediction and Analysis Models to Support NASA Earth Observing System • “Corporate Strategist” • Office of Science and Technology Policy • Director of High Performance Computing

5. Move to U of Michigan • Arrived in September 2005 • Second day in Ann Arbor a university wide summit on climate change • In Winter of 2006 I started a graduate course called, Climate Change: The Intersection of Science, Economics, and Policy. This evolved into Climate Change: The Move to Action – a course in Problem Solving in Climate Change

6. Where have the students come from? • School of Natural Resources and Environment • School of Business • School of Public Policy • Literature, Sciences and Art • College of Engineering • School of Law • School of Public Health

7. Projects • Project • To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a complex problem • Purpose of the analysis • Inform an agency head, government official, a corporate manager so that a decision can be made • Set the foundation for a research program, an initiative, a business plan

8. Advocacy and knowledge • Students become aware of what is knowledge and what is advocacy • Advocacy separated from what is known • If an advocate, be fully aware of that fact

9. Class Website • Class Web Site • Climate Change: The Move to Action • Winter 2008 Term • 2008 Climate Change Projects • Energy, Water, Climate Change, and Economic Development of the Navajo Nation • NarrativePresentation • Exxon and BP: An Analysis of Two Companies' Approach to Climate Change • NarrativePresentation • Iron Fertilization in the Ocean: Environment and Business Opportunity • NarrativePresentation • Biofuel and Hybrid Buses in Ann Arbor: A Consideration of the Cost of Climate Change • NarrativePresentation • Carbon Management Initiative: The Integration of Carbon Management into the University of Michigan Curriculum • NarrativePresentation

10. Some things that have happened AOSS 480 NRE 480 New York Times Eyes and Ears Topics: Global Warming Eyes and Ears Lecture at the National Center for Atmospheric Research on Lessons Learned from Teaching Class. Blog for American Meteorological Society at Climatepolicy.org Expert Climate Change Blog for Wunderground.com

11. From Class and Projects  Openclimate.org • Enormous knowledge of climate change exists outside of the community of scientists • Evolved communities that address problems of environmental stress, that will be amplified, not caused, by climate change • Scientific community’s desire to “push” climate information to other communities was, perhaps, uninformed • Amazing potential to accelerate addressing climate change problems if the existing knowledge base was more readily accessible

12. Five Slides on Climate Change Science • Coming from NASA to Michigan • A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action • Five Slides on Climate Change Science • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Openclimate.org

13. Five Slides on Climate Change Science • I have assigned (or allowed) myself five slides to talk about the science of climate change. • There are many 10s of thousands of research papers on climate change and its impact. • It is hard (impossible?) to find a neglected subject.

14. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). Due to primarily water and carbon dioxide. The Greenhouse Effect Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming SUN Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. We are making the atmosphere “thicker.” Earth This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

15. The motivator: Increase of CO2(Keeling et al., 1996) 2009 ~ 390 ppm 1860 ~ 280 ppm • Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide

16. It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age • There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm) CO2 2100 460 ppm Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide CO2 2009 390 ppm 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • Some References • Vostok and CO2 • Role of Ocean in Reversal • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

17. One thing we do is make “predictions” (simulations, hindcasts) of the observations of past behavior Natural Forcing: Solar variability, volcanoes, “pre-industrial” CO2 Anthropogenic Forcing: Industrial CO2, Changes in Land Use, Other Greenhouse Gases (N2O, CH4, CFCs) It is only when anthropogenic forcing is calculated can we explain the warming observed to begin in the late 20th century. Predictions of the 20th Century How do we test our models? How do we attribute observed warming to the industry of humans? • Some References • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Fourth Assessment Report

18. Projections for the next 100 years. • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeFourth Assessment Report

19. Conclusions from the Scientific Investigation of the Physical Climate • The Earth has warmed, and most of that warming is due to the enterprise of humans. • The Earth will continue to warm. • Sea level will rise. • The weather will change. Let’s remember the ozone “smoking gun.” Is there a “smoking gun” for climate change? Is there some impact of climate change that raises urgency and accelerates action? 1970s Ice Age Stories Water, Water, Water The IPCC Process

20. Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • Coming from NASA to Michigan • A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action • Five Slides on Climate Change Science • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Openclimate.org

21. Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • This is serious. Global warming and changes of distribution of water will disrupt societies and ecosystems; it will, for the most part, increase the impact that “weather” has on society. • We have credible predictions of the future; we have actionable information. This is unprecedented opportunity – opportunity to prepare for the future. • Essay on Opportunity and Climate Predictions

22. Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs Climate change impacts all of society ...???... Security Food Environmental National Societal Success Standard of Living POLICY ECONOMICS ENERGY RELIGION LAW SOCIAL JUSTICE BUSINESS PUBLIC HEALTH information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

23. Acquisition and preservation of wealth is of central importance to people. Hence, “wealth” is a source of urgency, and it often works on the “short term.” As do energy security and population pressure Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy POPULATION ENERGY WEALTH CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE

24. Climate change usually considered a long-term problem • If we were to take actions to reduce carbon dioxide, then it would be a long time before we see benefit, and • many assume that climate change is a slow warming that will be a long time coming, and • that there will be technological solutions to the problem. • Hence, climate change is viewed by most as long term.

25. There are short-term issues important to climate change. What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ... LONG SHORT ENERGY SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY 25 years 0 years 50 years 75 years 100 years

26. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL We arrive at levels of granularity Need to introduce spatial scales as well WEALTH TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.

27. Energy-Economy-Climate Change • Because of the global reach of Energy, Economy, and Climate Change, solutions need to be woven into the fabric of our behavior. • Solutions need to be able to evolve from the near-term to the long-term. • Solutions need to address both local and global attributes of the problem. • Solutions are impacted by wealth • There is no one solution; we need a portfolio of solution paths. Business and Market

28. More lessons learned from class • Our focus on discipline-based expertise and two-subject interfaces, e.g. climate-policy, climate-energy, climate-business, etc., lead to polarized arguments and inhibit our ability to develop solution paths. • The need for trans-disciplinary discourse and rationalization of the interfaces between “disciplines.” (communities instead of disciplines?) (Thoumi: Practicum,Rood and Thoumi Article) • The uncertainty fallacy • There is an existing reservoir of knowledge resources that are isolated in their “native” disciplines. The knowledge base is fragmented. • If this information could be brought together the ability to accelerate problem solving would be enhanced.

29. Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Coming from NASA to Michigan • A new course: Climate Change: The Move to Action • Five Slides on Climate Change Science • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Openclimate

30. Where are we? • We arrive at a situation where there are four over arching communities: • Science • Business • Government • Non-governmental organizations • For the most part the elements of the community behave rationally within their community. • When the communities interact, they can appear irrational to each other. • With the consideration of the attributes of time, space, and wealth, rationality can often be defined and lead to solution paths. • These are “biological” not “hierarchical” relationships.

31. A proposal for going forward • Open source, open innovation, open communities. • What is an open source community?

32. Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • The Elements of Open Source • Open source is a production model that enables communities of people with common interests to work together productively with minimal centralized control. Fundamental elements of an open source approach include: • “source” (goods, ideas, code) that is accessible to everyone • openness • collaboration and community • recognition for contributions • transparency • democratization of the tools necessary to contribute

33. Some successful open source communities • Operating system: Linux • Web browser: Mozilla Firefox • Open source environment: Apache • Encyclopedia: Wikipedia • Citizen journalism website Digg • Open Source Initiative Some open source references

34. Openclimate.org • A new approach to climate change problem solving • Builds on intellectual resources from all communities, allows this community to place a “pull” on the resources built to service the community of scientists. • Works to remove fragmentation and breakdown the stovepipes of discipline-focused communities. • Aims to accelerate problem solving through inclusivity.

35. Openclimate.org • Openclimate.org • http://openclimate.org/ oc20090203 Username oc20090203 Password starting to make it real

36. Is there some time? • Let’s remember the ozone “smoking gun.” Is there a “smoking gun” for climate change? • Is there some impact of climate change that raises urgency and accelerates action?

37. Thank you

38. Ozone Hole • Global environmental problem with some similarities to global warming. • Huge reductions of ozone over Antarctica, and significant reductions elsewhere. • Some characteristics: • Strong, near-term human health impact. • “Smoking gun” is observed • Replacement refrigerants became available Return to talk

39. The Uncertainty Fallacy? • Scientific investigation produces two things • Knowledge • Uncertainty about that knowledge Return to talk

40. Motivates policy Policy • Uncertainty always exists • New uncertainties will be revealed • Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Return to talk

41. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Policy • Uncertainty always exists • New uncertainties will be revealed • Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging Return to talk What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

42. The Uncertainty Fallacy • The uncertainty fallacy is that scientific investigation provides a systematic reduction of uncertainty of knowledge and that a systematic reduction of uncertainty is what is needed to motivate the development of policy or, more generally, “decision making.” • In addition, scientific uncertainty needs to be considered in relationship to other forms of uncertainty and needs to map to risk and benefit. Return to talk

43. Business and Market • Business has often been posed as the villain in climate change discussions • But business is far from uniform in motivations, practices, and beliefs • Business is core to the economy, core to consumption, core to energy use • Ultimately business is a core element of the solution set; it is connective. Return to talk

44. Elements of environmental pollutant market F1A F2A FiA COST GAP FUEL SOURCES efficiency F2c Fic F1c SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS ENERGY PRODUCTION GDP . ABATEMENT A1 A2 Ai POLLUTANT Return to talk

45. Some Resources on Business and Climate Change • Readings • Hoffman: Pew Corporate Strategies 2006 • McKinsey: Global Business Survey 2008 • Web portals • U.S. Climate Action Partnership • CAP Call for Action • CERES: Coalition of Investors, Environmental and Public Interest Groups • Click Publications: Look at 2003 and 2006 Corporate Governance Return to talk

46. 1970s Ice Age Stories Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s? Return to talk

47. Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996) “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through…a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965 Return to talk Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong

48. Some open source references • Raymond: The Cathedral and the Bazaar • Demil: Neither Market nor Heirarchy nor Network ... • Shah: Motivation, Governance and the Viability ... • Sturmer: Open Source Community Building • von Krogh Community, Joining and the Specialization ... Return to talk

49. Open “source” communities • Value knowledge and synthesis of knowledge • Free access to knowledge is beneficial to individuals in the community. • Proven effective for organizing complex systems and developing elements of solution paths • Are governed; they are not anarchy • Are owned by the community Return to talk