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2010 World & U.S. Wheat Situation 2010 Hard Red Spring & Durum Quality December 7 , 2010

2010 World & U.S. Wheat Situation 2010 Hard Red Spring & Durum Quality December 7 , 2010. Jim Peterson Marketing Director North Dakota Wheat Commission jpeterso@ndwheat.com www.ndwheat.com. World Wheat Situation .

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2010 World & U.S. Wheat Situation 2010 Hard Red Spring & Durum Quality December 7 , 2010

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  1. 2010 World & U.S. Wheat Situation2010 Hard Red Spring & Durum QualityDecember 7, 2010 Jim Peterson Marketing Director North Dakota Wheat Commission jpeterso@ndwheat.com www.ndwheat.com

  2. World Wheat Situation • Production far below early summer projections…but still 3rd highest on record • Russian drought, reduced Canadian acres, Western Australian drought • Usage will reach record high • Exceed production for first time in 3 years • Continued food growth • Increase in feed use…low quality wheat in EU/CAN/AUS • Ending stocks expected to decline..but still historically large • Supply situation different than in 2007-08 when prices soared to double digits but concerns over 2011 prospects pushing prices • U.S. export share up dramatically

  3. WORLD WHEATPRODUCTION AND USE Million Ton Million Bushel

  4. WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION – MAP(Million Bushels) USDA October 2010 xldata./world/all/prod & use

  5. WORLD WHEAT STOCKS Million Bushels Source: USDA

  6. WORLD WHEAT EXPORTSMillion Bushels Source: USDA

  7. U.S. WHEAT PLANTINGS & PRODUCTIONAcres/Bushels Historically low winter wheat acres but offset by record national yield Million Acres Million Bushels Source: USDA Small Grains Summary

  8. Historical U.S. Wheat Yields Bushels Per Acre

  9. U.S. WHEAT SUPPLY & DEMAND Million Bushels Source: USDA

  10. EXPORT PACE FOR U.S. WHEAT(Shipments and Sales as of November 25, 2010) MillionBushels MillionTons

  11. U. S. FUTURES TRENDSMinneapolis – Hard Red SpringKansas City – Hard Red WinterChicago – Soft Red Winter – World prices $ per Bushel $ per Ton Shortage of quality wheat in world market and strong U.S. exports have pushed MPLS and KC prices higher.

  12. U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat Share of production by state 18% 49% 15% 10%

  13. U.S. HARD RED SPRIJNG2010 Overview • A second year of very strong yields with little to no disease pressures but a more challenging harvest in western areas compared to 2009 • Planting / Emergence • Timely in the central and east but some delays in western areas • Growing Season • Excellent subsoil moisture and timely rains • Minimal disease pressures • No excessive heat • Record yields for the region • Harvest • Timely, rapid harvest in eastern half of the region • Later than normal in western areas with parts of Montana and northwest North Dakota hit by long delay in September

  14. U.S. SPRING WHEAT PLANTINGS & PRODUCTION Million Acres Million Bushels * Typically includes 30-60 million bushels of white spring wheat. Source: USDA Small Grains Summary Xldata/HRS/Acres

  15. U.S. SPRING WHEAT PRODUCTION BY STATE Million Bushels Montana had largest production gains in 2010 Source: USDA Small Grains Summary

  16. U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat 2010 Harvest ProgressAs of August 29 Nationally – 69% versus 75% normal MN and SD completed ND near normal, MT well behind 31% 74% 97% 95%

  17. U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat 2010 Harvest ProgressAs of September 12 56% 85% 100% 100%

  18. U.S. HARD RED SPRING DEMAND Million Bushels Source: USDA

  19. COMPARATIVE U.S. WHEAT PROTEIN LEVELS12% Moisture Basis Protein Content 10/26/10

  20. COMPARATIVE U.S. HRS & CWRS PROTEIN LEVELS12% Moisture Basis Grade shortfalls and low protein dual challenge with Canadian crop in 2010 Protein Content 10/26/10

  21. EXPORT PACE – U.S. HRS WHEAT2010-11 asof November 25, 2010 Million Tons Million Bushels

  22. U.S. HARD RED SPRING SUPPLY & DEMAND Million Bushels Source: USDA

  23. U.S. HARD RED SPRING2010 Quality • Summary: • Average grade - #1 Northern Spring with above average test weights • Improved protein levels over record low 2009 crop, but still below traditional level • Little to no damaged kernels, but lower vitreousness (color) and some pockets of lower falling numbers • Performance – Increased flour yields, lower absorption, some improvement in dough strength and similar loaf volumes (both still below traditional levels) Data is based on collection of 713 producer samples -- represents entire harvest with the exception of parts of Montana. Analysis by North Dakota State University, Plant Sciences Department, Hard Red Spring Wheat Quality Lab

  24. HRS: Grade Distribution Percent

  25. HRS: Test Weight Pounds/bushel

  26. HRS: Total Defects Percent

  27. HRS: Protein Content(12% Moisture Basis) Percent

  28. HRS: Protein Content Distribution

  29. HRS: Protein by Area(12% moisture basis – percent) A 12.8 B 13.4 A 14.1 B 13.6 A 13.1 C 13.3 C 13.5 D 14.5 E 14.4 F 13.8 D 13.5 B 13.8 E 13.6 A 13.5 B 14.2 C 14.7

  30. HRS: Falling Number Seconds

  31. HRS: Vitreous Kernel Count Seconds

  32. HRS: 2010 Vitreous Kernelsby State (percent) 74 70 58 77

  33. HRS: Flour Extraction Test milling was conducted on a Buhler laboratory mill. Results are suitable for comparison between crop years, however yields are lower than those obtained in commercial mills. Percent

  34. HRS: Flour Protein (14% moisture) Percent

  35. HRS: Farinogram Absorption Percent

  36. U.S. Hard Red Spring: Dough Mixing Strength Mixogram Score Scale 1- 8 Reference Farinograms

  37. U.S. Hard Red Spring WheatDough Quality : Farinograph Times Minutes Classification

  38. HRS: Stability by Area(minutes) A 10.5 A 11.5 B 9.5 B 10.0 A 9.0 C 12.0 C 11.0 D 11.0 E 14.0 F 10.0 D 11.5 B 9.5 A 9.0 B 6.5 E 8.5 C 7.5

  39. HRS: Loaf Volume Cubic Centimeters

  40. HRS: 2010 Loaf Volumeby State (cubic cm) 894 943 923 917

  41. WORLD DURUM PRODUCTIONMillion Bushels Source: Stats Canada and Int’l Grains Council

  42. WORLD DURUM PRODUCTION – MAP(Million Bushels) Source: Stats Canada and Int’l Grains Council

  43. Durum Stocks in Major Exporters U.S., Canada, European Union (As of June 1) Million Tons Million Bushels Source: Stats Canada and Int’l Grains Council

  44. WORLD DURUM EXPORTS Million Tons Others includes Turkey, Syria, Mexico and Australia Source: Int’l Grains Council

  45. U.S. DURUM2010 Overview • Record yields and production in MT. Smaller Desert Durum Crop in AZ and CA (reduced acres). Larger durum crop in ND (higher acres). Quality of Northern crop compromised by September rains/frost. • Overall production • Similar to 2009 • Demand • Still seeing strong domestic use • Export sales started strong but have since fallen behind last year due to political issues in Algeria, weaker Euro and compromised quality • Prices • Wide quality price spreads in the market ($3.50 to $7.25) • Top-end durum is nearly a $1 below 14% protein HRS

  46. U.S. DURUM WHEAT PLANTINGS & PRODUCTION Million Acres Million Bushels Source: USDA Small Grains Summary Xldata/durum/acres

  47. U.S. DURUM WHEAT PRODUCTION BY STATE Million Bushels Desert Durum accounted for smaller share of 2010 crop Source: USDA Small Grains Summary

  48. DURUM SUPPLIES IN THE U.S. Million Bushels Million Tons Source: USDA

  49. U.S. DURUM DEMAND Million Bushels Source: USDA

  50. EXPORT PACE – U.S. DURUM WHEAT2010-11 as of November 25, 2010 Million Tons Million Bushels

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