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Status of the Planning Working Group’s (PWG) Efforts

Status of the Planning Working Group’s (PWG) Efforts. Andrew Fusco May 12, 2006. Agenda. Purpose of the PWG 2006 NCTPC process PWG efforts to date Next steps. Purpose of the PWG. Coordinates the development of the transmission studies to support the NCTPC Establishes a base case model

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Status of the Planning Working Group’s (PWG) Efforts

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  1. Status of the Planning Working Group’s (PWG) Efforts Andrew Fusco May 12, 2006

  2. Agenda • Purpose of the PWG • 2006 NCTPC process • PWG efforts to date • Next steps

  3. Purpose of the PWG • Coordinates the development of the transmission studies to support the NCTPC • Establishes a base case model • Performs Resource Supply Option studies – focused on reliability • Performs Enhanced Access studies – focused on power supply economics • Develops cost and schedule estimates

  4. Reliability Planning PWG coordinates the study analysis, identifies reliability problems, develops solutions with estimates of costs and schedules PWG evaluates reliability problems and current transmission upgrade plans Participants and TAG review the reliability study results PWG develops and the OSC approves the reliability study scope OSC selects reliability and enhanced access solutions; checks for improved reliability through enhanced access solutions OSC creates final draft Collaborative Plan Feedback and Iterative Studies Participants and TAG recommend scenarios and interfaces. The OSC selects interface and scenario studies for analysis PWG develops and the OSC approves the enhanced access study scope PWG coordinates the study analysis, identifies access problems, develops solutions with estimates of costs and schedules Participants and TAG review the enhanced access study results TAG feedback on final draft Collaborative Plan OSC approves final Collaborative Plan Enhanced Transmission Access Planning Participants’ resource planning processes NCTPC Process Flowchart

  5. Reliability Planning Process • Evaluate current reliability problems and transmission upgrade plans • Develop Reliability Study Scope • Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions • Review Reliability Study Results Enhanced Access Planning Process • Propose and select enhanced access scenarios and interface • Develop Enhanced Access Study Scope • Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions • Review Enhanced Access Study Results Collaborative Plan Development • Combine Reliability and Enhanced Results • OSC publishes DRAFT Plan • TAG review and comment 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 2006 Overview Schedule TAG Meetings

  6. 2006 NCTPC Process Flowchart Reliability Planning PWG coordinates the study analysis, identifies reliability problems, develops solutions with estimates of costs and schedules PWG evaluates reliability problems and current transmission upgrade plans PWG develops and the OSC approves the reliability study scope Participants and TAG review the reliability study results OSC selects reliability and enhanced access solutions; checks for improved reliability through enhanced access solutions OSC creates final draft Collaborative Plan Feedback and Iterative Studies TAG feedback on final draft Collaborative Plan Participants’ resource planning processes OSC approves final Collaborative Plan

  7. Reliability Planning Process • Evaluate current reliability problems and transmission upgrade plans • Develop Reliability Study Scope • Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions • Review Reliability Study Results Collaborative Plan Development 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 2006 Overview Schedule • FinalizeReliability Results • OSC publishes DRAFT Plan • TAG review and comment TAG Meetings

  8. PWG Efforts to Date • First PWG meeting in September 2005 • Sept – Dec: Compared reliability planning assumptions used by Duke and PEC • Oct – Jan: Developed scope for 2006 reliability study

  9. PWG Efforts to Date • Dec – Jan: Provided data for base case development • Load and resource forecasts • Dispatch order for resources • Coordinated interchange • Contingency and monitored line lists

  10. PWG Efforts to Date • Jan – Feb: Developed merged detailed base case • Feb – Mar: Developed potential alternative resource supply options for study • Mar – Apr: Performed base case and some generator maintenance reliability screenings • Apr: Reviewed initial reliability screenings • Apr – May: Started investigating phase angle issue on Newport-Richmond line

  11. Next Steps • Complete studies for Resource Supply Options • Identify reliability problems • Develop solutions • Develop technical solutions • Develop cost and schedule estimates for solutions • Recommend alternative resource supply options for study

  12. Results • Established open dialogue among participants • Provides LSEs data for resource planning • Allows for more coordinated planning between IOUs • Coordinated transmission planning processes • Identified no new short-term transmission issues • Provides transparency on import related issues • Newport-Richmond flow restrictions • Other identified limitations • Provides transparency on load growth issues

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