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The Global Warming Gamble

Explore the theory of human-induced global warming and its impact on the planet. Discover the scientific evidence, competing hypotheses, and the uncertainty in both physical and social systems. Learn about the historical temperature variations, emissions of greenhouse gases, and the potential impacts of global warming. Take a closer look at the stakes involved and why it is crucial to act now.

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The Global Warming Gamble

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  1. The Global Warming Gamble Bruce T. Anderson Dep’t of Geography and Environment Boston University

  2. Theory of Human Induced Global Warming • Theory of Human Induced Global Warming: • The theory that the general warming of the globe over the last half century can be attributed primarily to the emissions of heat-trapping gases associated with human activity

  3. Scientific Theory • Colloquial Definition: • Contemplation or speculation • Guess or conjecture • Scientific Definition: • “A scientific theory isa well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world, based on a body of facts that have been repeatedly confirmed through observation and experiment. Such fact-supported theories are not "guesses" but reliable accounts of the real world.”–American Association for the Advancement of Science • “In everyday language a theory means a hunch or speculation. Not so in science. In science, the word theory refers to a comprehensive explanation of an important feature of nature supported by facts gathered over time. Theories also allow scientists to make predictions about as yet unobserved phenomena”–The National Academy of Sciences

  4. Competing Hypotheses From Hypothesis to Theory Reigning Theory Rigorous Testing, Debate

  5. Heat-trapping Gases

  6. Heat-trapping Gases Con’t. Emitted Solar Absorbed

  7. Keeling Curve

  8. Influence of Solar Activity

  9. Influence of Natural Variability

  10. Uncertainty in Physical System

  11. Uncertainty in Social and Economic Systems

  12. Impacts of Global Warming 1 in every 2-3days in summer 1 in every 6-7 days in summer

  13. Future 100-year Flood Levels

  14. Unknown Impacts of Global Warming

  15. The Global Warming Gamble • “If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.” – Chinese Proverb • We know the rules (i.e. the science) of the game • We know the stakes are high • And we know the time to quit is now • “In gambling the many must lose in order that the few may win” – George Bernard Shaw

  16. Historical Temperature Variations

  17. Emissions and Concentrations of CO2

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