1 / 37

An In-depth Exploration of the Mobile App Ecosystem and Popularity Dynamics

This study investigates the rapid growth of the mobile app ecosystem, showing that smartphone adoption surged 10 times faster than the PC revolution of the 1980s and that app downloads have skyrocketed, with over 50 billion in total. It analyzes app popularity distribution, pricing strategies, and the income potential for developers. The study reveals patterns such as the clustering effect of user behavior, where users tend to download apps from similar categories, and it highlights the relationship between app pricing and popularity.

nico
Télécharger la présentation

An In-depth Exploration of the Mobile App Ecosystem and Popularity Dynamics

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. A Systematic Study of the Mobile App Ecosystem ThanasisPetsas, AntonisPapadogiannakis, Evangelos P. Markatos MichalisPolychronakis Thomas Karagiannis

  2. Smartphone Adoption Explodes • Smartphone adoption: • 10x faster than 80s PC revolution • 2x faster than 90s Internet Boom • 3x faster than social networks • 1.4 B smartphones will be in use by 2013! Source:

  3. Mobile Apps are Getting Popular 50B+ downloads 1M+ apps 50B+ downloads 900K+ apps 2B+ downloads 100K+ apps Windows Store

  4. A Plethora of Marketplaces • In addition to the officialmarketplaces... • Many alternative markets

  5. Motivation • App popularity • How does app popularity distribution look like? • Is it similar with other domains? • WWW, P2P, UGC • Can we model app popularity? • App pricing • How does price affect app popularity? • What is the developers’ income? • Which are the common pricing strategies?

  6. Data Collection App stats APKs App stats APKs App stats APKs App stats APKs Marketplaces PlanetLab Proxies Crawler Hosts Database

  7. Datasets • Paid apps: • less downloads • fewer uploads * Last Day ~ 300K apps

  8. App PopularityIs There a Pareto Effect? 10% of the apps account for 90% of the downloads Downloads (%) CDF Normalized App Ranking (%)

  9. App PopularityIs There a Power-law Behavior? Let’s focus on one appstore

  10. App PopularityDeviations from ZIPF WWW INFOCOM‘99 P2P SOSP’03 UGC IMC’07

  11. Truncation for small x values: Fetch-at-most-once P2P SOSP’03 simulations • Also observed in P2P workloads • Users appear to download an application at most once

  12. Truncation for large x values:clustering effect UGC IMC’07 • Other studies attribute this truncation to information filtering • Our suggestion: the clustering effect

  13. App Clustering • Apps are grouped into clusters • App clusters can be formed by • App categories • Recommendation systems • User communities • Other grouping forces Games Reader Social Tool

  14. Clustering Hypothesis • Users tend to download apps from the same clusters I like Games! I like Social apps!

  15. Validating Clustering Effect in User Downloads Dataset: 361,282 user comment streams, 60,196 apps in 34 categories 94% of users commentedon apps from up to 5 categories 53% of users commentedon apps from a single category

  16. User Temporal Affinity x ✔ x ✔ User downloads sequence a1, a2, a3, a4, a5 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 Aff1 = 0 Aff3 = 1 Aff4 = 0 Aff2 = 1 Pair 3 Pair 1 Pair 2 Pair 4

  17. Users Exhibit a Strong Temporal Affinity to Categories 3.9 x 0.55 0.14

  18. Modeling Appstore Workloads Top 3 1 2.2 If downloaded apps < user downloads  go to 2. 2.1 2 1-p App populatiry p . . . bottom Reader Games Social Productivity APP-CLUSTERING model 1. Download the 1st app  – overall app ranking 2. Download another app 2.1 with prob. p from a previous app cluster c – cluster app ranking 2.2 with prob. 1-p – overall app ranking 3. If user’s downloads < d go to 2.

  19. Model Parameters • Number of downloads of the most popular app

  20. Results Model Distance from measured data ZIPF 0.77 ZIPF-at-most-once 0.71 APP-CLUSTERING 0.15 AppChina

  21. App Pricing • Main Questions: • Which are the differences between paid & free apps? • What is the developers’ income range? • Which are the common developer strategies • How do they affect revenue?

  22. The influence of cost Paid Free Clear power-law Users are more selective when downloading paid apps

  23. Developers’ Income 95% < 1500 $ 80% < 100 $ Median: < 10 $ Quality is more important than quantity (USD)

  24. Developers Create a Few Apps 95% of developers create < 10 apps 10% of developers offerfree & paid apps A large portion of developerscreate only 1 app

  25. Can Free Apps Generate Higher Income Than Paid Apps? Average: 0.21 $ Necessary ad income (USD) Day An average free app needs about 0.21 $/download to match the income of a paid app

  26. Conclusions • App popularity: Zipf with truncated ends • Fetch-at-most-once • Clustering effect • Practical implications • New replacement policies for app caching • Effective prefetching • Better recommendation systems • Increase income

  27. Thank you!

  28. Backup Slides

  29. Modeling Appstore Workloads • Each user downloads d apps randomly • Fetch-at-most-once: a user downloads an app only once • Clustering effect: user downloads a percentage of the apps based on previous selections • Each app has two rankings • an overall ranking • a ranking in its cluster

  30. Developers Focus on Few Categories ~99% of developers focus on 1-5 categories 80% of developers focus on 1 category

  31. Choosing the Right Number of Users Minimum distance

  32. Distance From Actual Data • APP-CLUSTERING: • up to 7.2 times closer than ZIPF • up to 6.4 times closer thanZIPF-at-most-once

  33. Apps Are Not Updated Often Apps (CDF) Number of Updated

  34. Temporal Affinity for Different Depth Levels Apps (CDF) Number of Updated

  35. Clustering-based User Behavior Affects LRU Cache Performance Negatively Cache Hit Ratio (%) Cache Size (% of total apps)

  36. User affinity to app categories - Equations Depth 1: Depth d:

  37. User Temporal Affinity ✔ ✔ ✔ Depth = 2 x x x a1 a2 a1 a2 a1 Aff3 = 1 Aff1 = 1 Aff2 = 1

More Related