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This comprehensive overview provides insights into the trends shaping the global hardwood markets, focusing on North America's position. It explores macro trends, key opportunities in Europe, and emerging markets in Asia such as Poland and Turkey. With a detailed analysis of U.S. lumber exports and shifts in demand, the report forecasts growth potential in various regions, identifying both winners and losers in North American and European markets. Additionally, it highlights the significant market potential in Vietnam and trends across Canada and Mexico.
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Trends in Global Markets for North American Hardwoods Dan Meyer Northern Editor September 6, 2006
Overview • Macro Trends • Europe • Sleep-Inducing Graphs • Key Opportunities • Market Summary • Asia • Canada/Mexico • Others to Watch?
$1,180 $1,160 $1,137 $1,108 $1,059/MBF U.S. Lumber Exports
Key European Opportunities: Poland • Rapid growth since joining EU • Tariff reductions, free trade stance, investment in mfg. sectors, wage rates among lowest on continent—make it a low-cost mfg.centerfor Europe.
Key European Opportunities: Poland • Increased lumber shipments to Germany ending up in Poland. • Sizeable furniture industry and rapidly growing flooring industry—both heavily export oriented. • Polish wood furniture exports up 24% in 2005 to U.S.$1.44 billion.
Key European Opportunities: Poland • Poland’s mfg. competitiveness similar to Spain and Portugal’s positions at initial EU formation. • Poland’s industrial production growing at 10% annually. • N.A. lumber exports will increase significantly.
Key European Opportunities: Turkey • EU membership discussions opened in Oct 2005
Key European Opportunities: Turkey • Market potential similar to Poland’s; but won’t be realized as quickly. • Wood household furniture exports surged 54% in 2004 to $136 mil. • EU admission likely; maybe as soon as 2007.
Key European Opportunities: Turkey • Turkey’s geographic location at the crossroads of European, Asian and African trade routes. • Attractive location from which to source lumber and mfr. products for export to all three continents.
European Summary • N.A. lumber demand slid south; now shifting east. • We’ll see more lumber shipped to Poland via Germany. • Turkey shows Poland-like promise.
European Summary • Exports to France, Belgium will decline further. • Short-term outlook for many other EU-15 countries is good, but long-term pressures will limit sustained market strength.
Asian Summary • China 8x larger than next largest Asian market. • Price will remain buyers’ main concern • Fickle • Some say too difficult to deal with
Asian Summary • Japan will show steady economic improvement, and increased consumer spending and business investment. • Direct lumber shipments won’t improve
Asian Summary • Taiwan is fading • Modest growth in Hickory, Alder • Thailand is stagnant • Walnut up in 2006 • Korea is flat • Some promise for increased Ash
Asian Summary • Vietnam is market to watch • Yellow Poplar • Cherry • Ash • White Oak
North American Summary Growth Potential for 2006