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Steering committee meeting #2

Steering committee meeting #2

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Steering committee meeting #2

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  1. August 3, 2011 Steering committee meeting #2

  2. Introductions Status Reports Demographics Presentation Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by MindMixer Project Team—City Update Steering Committee Discussion Next Meeting Adjourn Meeting agenda

  3. Status report

  4. The Foundation for the Comprehensive Plan Local demographics

  5. Population Projections Population Characteristics Demographic Changes Housing Characteristics Housing Demand Future Land Use Demand Demographic changes

  6. Population is a major component in the Comprehensive Plan • It’s a building block for many land use estimates • Residential units • Commercial and office square footage • Industrial acres Local population projections

  7. The primary source for demographic data for Plan Norwalk is the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI Business Analyst, CBRE Market Analysis Since 1980, Norwalk has increased its population by 276.5% from 2,376 to 8,945 Norwalk has been the fastest growing city in Warren County during the same time period Local population projections

  8. Various Methodologies • Trend line analysis • 1960 to 2010 • 1970 to 2010 • 1980 to 2010 • 2000 to 2010 • Cohort survival analysis Local population projection

  9. Local population projection

  10. Population Estimate 1 • What do the numbers tell us? • Additional 10,680 people over 30 years • 8,945 in 2010 growing to 19,625 in 2040 • Growth rate: • 119% total growth over 30 years Local population projections

  11. Local population projection

  12. Population Estimate 2 • What do the numbers tell us? • Additional 41,578 people over 30 years • 8,945 in 2010 growing to 50,523 in 2040 • Growth rate: • 465% total growth over 30 years Local population projections

  13. Demographic changes NATIONAL TRENDS AND LOCAL COMPARISONS

  14. Nationally, baby boomers are still relevant! • Born between 1946 and 1964 • Very large age cohort that impacts community (60M in that age group nationally) • Some are entering retirement age now • Future impacts on housing, land use, transportation and economy Demographic changes

  15. Generation Y – The Boomer babies! • Born between 1982 and 1995 • Larger generation (80M vs. 60M) nationally than Baby Boomers • Different preferences • Plugged-in generation • Impacts on housing choices, land use, transportation and economy Demographic changes

  16. Demographic changes Generation X – the in-between generation • Born between 1965 and 1976 • Smaller generation nationally than Baby Boomers (51M vs. 60M) • The suburban generation; the ‘latchkey’ kids • First multi-cultural generation • Highly mobile workforce

  17. Norwalk demographics differ from national trends • 2010 population characteristics • Age 0 – 14 2,244 or 25.1% • Gen Y 1,686 or 18.9% • Gen X 2,027 or 22.7% • Baby Boomers 2,206 or 24.6% • Age 65+ 782 or 8.7% Demographic changes

  18. Norwalk demographics differ from national trends • Small growth in population 65 and older • Norwalk population over 65 is 8.7% (2010) • US population over 65 is 13.03% (2010) • Young children (age 0 – 14) make up largest population segment; 25.1% • Children age 0 – 18 make over 30% of Norwalk’s population Demographic changes

  19. Demographic changes Average age is increasing in Norwalk, similar to national trend • 32.8 years in 2000 • 34.3 years in 2010

  20. Impacts on housing demand HOUSING TRENDS AND DEMANDS

  21. Household size is decreasing Norwalk, similar to national trend • 2.88 in 2000 • 2.70 in 2010 • Norwalk has larger HH size than surrounding communities and State of Iowa in 2010 • 2.41 in Iowa • 2.32 in West Des Moines • 2.58 in Ankeny Demographic changes

  22. Residential unit demand based on population estimate 1 • 4,151 residential units • 3,118 owner occupied • 1,033 rental Impacts on housing demand

  23. Residential unit demand based on population estimate 2 • 16,162 residential units • 12,139 owner occupied • 4,023 rental Impacts on housing demand

  24. Impacts on housing demand • Types of housing products • Single family • Accessory dwelling unites • Multi-family • Mixed use • Assisted living

  25. Impacts on housing demand

  26. Impacts on housing demand

  27. Impacts on housing

  28. Impacts on housing

  29. Impacts on housing

  30. Plan Norwalk assumptions • Existing building trends and supply • 71% single family and 21% multi-family • 76% owner occupied and 24% rental • Should goals for single family and multi-family change in the future? • What will market demand be for owner occupied versus rental? Impacts on housing demand

  31. 2010 housing unit supply • 360 +/- approved units; sf and mf • 4 year supply based on population projection 1 • Existing supply will only meet a small portion of 2040 demand! Impacts on housing demand

  32. Impacts on land consumption

  33. Projected Land Use by Classification(by percentage) • Residential30.0% • Commercial6.5% • Industrial/RR2.5% • Public/semi public14.8% • Public R.O.W.25.6% • Vacant/Ag20.6% • Total 100.0% Assumptions about land use

  34. Impacts on land consumption • Population Estimate 1 • Residential Land Use 811 acres • Commercial Land Use 176 acres • Industrial Land Use 68 acres • Public Land Use 400 acres • ROW 692 acres • Other Land Use 557 acres Total New Development 2,702 acres Land area is equal to 4.2 square miles

  35. Impacts on land consumption • Population Estimate 2 • Residential Land Use 3,156 acres • Commercial Land Use 684 acres • Industrial Land Use 263 acres • Public Land Use 1,557 acres • ROW 2,693 acres • Other Land Use 2,167 acres Total New Development 10,520 acres Land area is equal to 16.4 square miles

  36. Where should residential land uses be geographically allocated? Where should other land uses by geographically allocated? Will this meet future demand? What options should be identified in Plan Norwalk? Impacts on land consumption

  37. Population growth and demographic change will impact housing demand over the next 30 years Current plans, building trends and housing supply may need to change significantly to meet future demands Increasing demand for housing options with higher densities with more amenities within walking distance summary

  38. Plan Norwalk by MindMixer Community engagement

  39. 661 unique visitors 1731 visits 12006 pageviews 6.94 pageviews per visit Average visist lasts 5 min. 34 sec. 47 ideas submitted 198 comments Plan Norwalk user statistics

  40. Community Character Community Health Growth and Housing Diversity Public Safety Stormwater Transportation Diversity Plan norwalk topics

  41. 12 Ideas Supports • Entryway to Norwalk 22 • North Avenue 9 • Pedestrian Improvements 8 • Amphitheater 6 Theme: improve the Hwy. 28 entrance to Norwalk Community Character

  42. 5 Ideas Supports • Bike trail 12 • Community center 6 • Walkable neighborhoods 6 Theme: provide connection to the Great Western Bike Trail and create connections to city parks Community health

  43. 14 Ideas Supports • Aquatic center 9 • Current pool 4 • Senior housing 4 • Family fun center 2 (with 59 comments) Theme: “John’s project”, TIF, taxes and land use policy in Norwalk Growth and housing diversity

  44. 13 Ideas Support • More cruisers than cameras 17 • Lower speed limits on Hwy. 28 7 • Ped/bike bridge over Hwy. 28 5 Theme: cameras = “Big Brother” or “cash cow” or legitimate traffic safety control ??? Public safety

  45. 3 Ideas Supports • Regional stormwater detention 8 • Land developer’s responsibility 4 Theme: more public awareness and education about stormwater management stormwater

  46. 2 Ideas Supports • Bike paths 11 • Mass transit 8 Theme: connections to the metro trail system and to DART. Transportation diversity

  47. Idea generation phase extended to August 15th • Continue to encourage input on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site • Voting phase will follow and end on August 31st • Get out and vote for the best ideas submitted on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site Next steps