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Preliminary Results from Project Athena

Very . Preliminary Results from Project Athena. (Major Computing Operations Ended 0800 April 1). Project Athena Team Presentation to the COLA Scientific Advisory Committee April 12, 2010. Many Thanks To …. ECMWF Mats Hamrud Thomas Jung Martin Miller Tim Palmer (co-PI) Peter Towers

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Preliminary Results from Project Athena

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  1. Very Preliminary Results from Project Athena (Major Computing Operations Ended 0800 April 1) Project Athena Team Presentation to the COLA Scientific Advisory Committee April 12, 2010

  2. Many Thanks To … • ECMWF • Mats Hamrud • Thomas Jung • Martin Miller • Tim Palmer (co-PI) • Peter Towers • Nils Wedi • NICS • Phil Andrews (co-PI) • Troy Baer • Matt Ezell • Christian Halloy • Dwayne John • Bruce Loftis • Kwai Wong • Cray • Pete Johnsen • Per Nyberg • NSF • AGS: Jay Fein • OCI: Steve Meacham, Rob Pennington • JAMSTEC/U. Tokyo • Chihiro Kodama • Masaki Satoh (co-PI, U. Tokyo) • Hirofumi Tomita (co-PI, JAMSTEC) • Yohei Yamada • COLA • DeepthiAchutavarier • Jennifer Adams • Eric Altshuler • Ben Cash • Paul Dirmeyer • Brian Doty • Bohua Huang • Emilia Jin • Jim Kinter (PI) • Larry Marx • Julia Manganello • Cristiana Stan • Tom Wakefield

  3. Many Thanks To … • ECMWF • Mats Hamrud • Thomas Jung • Martin Miller • Tim Palmer (co-PI) • Peter Towers • Nils Wedi • NICS • Phil Andrews (co-PI) • Troy Baer • Matt Ezell • Christian Halloy • Dwayne John • Bruce Loftis • Kwai Wong • Cray • Pete Johnsen • Per Nyberg • NSF • AGS: Jay Fein • OCI: Steve Meacham, Rob Pennington • JAMSTEC/U. Tokyo • Chihiro Kodama • Masaki Satoh (co-PI, U. Tokyo) • Hirofumi Tomita (co-PI, JAMSTEC) • Yohei Yamada • COLA • DeepthiAchutavarier • Jennifer Adams • Eric Altshuler • Ben Cash • Paul Dirmeyer • Brian Doty • Bohua Huang • Emilia Jin • Jim Kinter (PI) • Larry Marx • Julia Manganello • Cristiana Stan • Tom Wakefield

  4. Qualitative Analysis:2009 NICAM Precipitation May 21-August 31

  5. May 2009 - Tropical Cyclone Aila NICAM simulation accurately predicted development, evolution and track of Aila over 5-day period 25May09 23May09 21May09

  6. Qualitative to Quantitative:Beyond Animations • Athena Catalog • 8 NICAM (7 km) Boreal summer cases • 9 IFS T2047 (10 km) Boreal summer cases • 20 IFS T2047 13-month hindcasts • 48 IFS 13-month hindcasts at T1279 (16 km), T511 (40 km), T159 (128 km) • 50 year IFS AMIP run at T1279, T511, T159 • 50 year IFS timeslice run at T1279, T511, T159 • Multiple ensemble members for select seasons at T1279, T511, T159 • Sufficient data for quantitative analysis

  7. 7km: NICAM JJA Mean Rainfall at native resolution (8 seasons)

  8. 10km: IFS T2047 JJA Mean Rainfall at native resolution (8 seasons)

  9. 40 km: Chen et al. 0.5 degree JJA Mean Rainfall (8 seasons)

  10. 25 km: TRMM JJA Mean Rainfall (8 seasons)

  11. 128 km: IFS T159 JJA Mean Rainfall native resolution (8 seasons)

  12. JJA Mean Precip Diurnal Cycle Amplitude 2001-2009 (mm/day) Diurnal amplitude accurately represented

  13. JJA Mean Precip Diurnal Cycle Phase 2001-2009 (local hour of max) Qualitative differences between IFS and NICAM Plateau in improvement with resolution?

  14. IFS JFM Mean Snow DepthCONUS Transect at 40 N Interpolated high-resolution agrees with native T159 Orographic features are not represented

  15. Coarse Native Decreasing Resolution Biases Distribution

  16. LARGE BIASES REMAIN

  17. JJA Mean Diurnal Cycle Phase 2001-2009 (local hour of max) NICAM more accurate in reproducing phase, despite large bias in amplitude

  18. Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions All data at T159 Modest improvement with resolution

  19. Clear improvement in representing interannual variability

  20. Tropical Cyclones Identification and Calibration • Hodges Method: • 850-hPa relative vorticity max • Lifetime > 2 days • Cyclogenesis in 0-20N over land and 0-30N over oceans • ξi / ξv, where • ξi is the 850-hPa relative vorticity threshold, • ξv is the threshold for difference in vorticity between 850 hPa and 250 hPa • ξi / ξv must hold for 1 day OBS: data from IBTrACS for 1979-2008 OBS-STR: TCs with max 10-min sustained winds > 15.4 m/s (30 kt)

  21. TrackDensity (Northern Hemisphere) Observed - Bengtssonet al. 2007 IFS T1279 Similar results with model dependent calibration IFS T511 IFS T159

  22. TrackDensity (Northern Hemisphere) Observed - Bengtssonet al. 2007 IFS T1279 Applying T1279 calibration to T159 eliminates most storms IFS T511 IFS T159

  23. TrackDensity (Northern Hemisphere)

  24. Maximum Attained Wind Speed (1979-2008) WPac NAtl Observed IFS NAtl: 10-m wind speed (10-min ave (T1279), 15-min ave (T511)), MJJASON season, 1979-2008 IFS T511 and T1279 Distribution shifts with resolution Still weaker than observed IFS: 10-m wind speed (10-min ave (T1279), 15-min ave (T511)) MJJASON season, 1979-2008

  25. Maximum Attained Wind Speed JJA Simulations IFS T2047 238 storms 7.5 min avg TS CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 CAT4 CAT5 T2047 distribution similar to T1279 – more evidence of a plateau? Higher percentage of strong storms in NICAM NICAM GL10 275 storms 30 sec avg TS CAT1 CAT2 CAT3 CAT4 CAT5

  26. Summary • Unique data set and analysis opportunities • Small fraction at COLA • Fall catalog in archive at NICS • Precipitation Generally Improved • Orographic features evident • Diurnal cycle can be well-represented • No clear winner among models • Plateau in benefit of resolution with parameterized convection? • Large tropical biases remain • Resolution is not a panacea

  27. Summary (cont’d) • Impact of Resolution on Large Scales • Improved blocking and synoptic statistics • Atlantic air-sea coupling • Important implications for climate change • Tropical cyclones improve with resolution • What are T159 ‘cyclones’? • Impact of non-parameterized convection? • Support for other COLA activities • Monsoon predictability • Maya express at T1279? • MUCH more to come

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