NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL COMMITTEE Malaquias Pena & Brian Mills NOAA/NWS/NCEP & Environment Canada

1. NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL COMMITTEEMalaquias Pena & Brian MillsNOAA/NWS/NCEP & Environment Canada

2. OUTLINE • TPARC • TIGGE / NAEFS / GIFS • THORPEX-IPY, YOTC • SERA – Brian • NARC meetings, other activities / plan • US THORPEX

3. TPARC • Summer T-PARC • ~20 projects funded • TC structure – ONR • ET – NSF • Winter TPARC • Impact of targeted observations on high impact weather • NOAA, Env. Canada, Russia, Japan • Link with Winter Olympics • Data archived by NASA

4. IPY, YOTC, SERA • THORPEX – IPY • TAWEPI, STAR, CONCORDIASI • YOTC – Year of Tropical Convection • International Program Office • Meetings, web pages, etc • Sponsored by US THORPEX Executive Committee • Funded by NSF, NASA, NOAA • Housed at NCAR • High resolution NWP data provided by NASA & NCEP • SERA • Old recommendations still seem to be valid • THORPEX Stakeholder Panel never formed

5. OTHER NARC ACTIVITIES • Last NARC meeting • Cuernavaca, Mexico, May 2010 • Back-to-back with 5th NAEFS Workshop • Huge turnout & success (more than 100 participants from region) • Mexican THORPEX Committee formed • Draft Mexican Science Plan • Regional model intercomparison – research to operation • Heavy precipitation forecast in S Mexico & Central America • Step towards regional NWP in Mexico and Central America? • Seven Mexican centers to run WRF • Groups in the U.S. and Canada offered participation • Link with TIGGE-LAM • Next NARC meeting • Monterey, USA, Spring 2012 – joint with NAEFS Workshop

6. OTHER NARC ACTIVITIES • Last NARC meeting • Cuernavaca, Mexico, May 2010 - with 5th NAEFS Workshop • Huge turnout & success (more than 100 participants from region) • Mexican THORPEX Committee formed • Draft Mexican Science Plan • Regional model intercomparison – research to operation • Heavy precipitation forecast in S Mexico & Central America • Step towards regional NWP in Mexico and Central America? • Seven Mexican centers to run WRF • Groups in the U.S. and Canada offered participation • Link with TIGGE-LAM • SWFDP for Mexico & Central America? • Planning stage • National Meteorological Service of Mexico may support it • Next NARC meeting • Monterey, USA, Spring 2012 – joint with NAEFS Workshop

7. US THORPEX EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE • Collaboration among four agencies • NASA, NOAA, NSF, US Navy • Major investments since 2004 • ~20+ M funding for research • Support IPO, US THORPEX PO, Intl YOTC PO • Significant in-kind contributions to field campaigns etc • Challenges in FY2012 & beyond • NASA Weather Applications Program suspended • THORPEX not in NOAA budget • Contributed more to THORPEX Trust Fund this year (185k) • No promise for coming years

8. US THORPEX ACTIVITIES • US Science Plan complete and approved • Available on web, 30 p. • Aligned with International Sci Plan • Overlap between process, forecast, and social studies • US THORPEX Science Steering Committee • Being reconstituted, respected scientists (by Nov 2011) • Edmund Chang & Malaquias Pena co-chairs • US Implementation Plan being formulated • Match academic interests (USTSSC) with funding opportunities (USTEC)

9. POTENTIAL US THORPEX FOCUS AREAS • Moist processes & forecasting • Leading to precipitation, wind, TC, etc events with high socio-economic impact • YOTC, Dynamo, Natl Unified Operational Prediction Capability, NAEFS, GIFS • Extend predictability to intraseasonal timescales • Global to regional connections • What products appropriate? - Socio-economic aspect of problem • Earth System Prediction Capability, WCRP • Ensemble forecasting, probabilistic products • Link with data assimilation; Representation of model errors • NUOPC, NAEFS, GIFS, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), etc • Observing & DA system optimization • OSSEs, adaptive use of satellite observations • Coordinated multi-agency / intl major field campaign in ~2015?

10. NEXT USTEC MEETING • At AMS Annual Meeting in January 2012 • Please join us if you are there and interested

11. BACKGROUND

12. US THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Potential focus areas • Moist processes • Leading to precipitation, wind, TC, etc eventsropical Cyclones, etc) w high socio-economic impact • Links with NUOPC, GIFS • Extend predictability to intraseasonal timescales • Global to regional connections • What products are appropriate for intraseasonal scales? - Socio-economic aspect of problem • Link with ESPC, WCRP • Ensemble forecasting research (for both items above) • Link with data assimilation; Representation of model errors • Links with National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC), North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), GIFS, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), etc Potential areas of work: • Ensemble development, probabilistic products - NUOPC, GIFS, HFIP, ESPC • Tropical processes and forecasting - YOTC, Dynamo, NARC's outreach to Central America/Caribbean/Mexico • Observing & DA system optimization – Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), adaptive use of satellite obs, coordinated multi-agency / intl major field campaign in ~2015

13. Work proposal for 2012 • Outreach to Mexico and Central America • Organizing a SWFDP experiment for the region • Planning Stage • Mexican NWS might be willing to support this activity • How THORPEX (TIGGE, NAEFS) can contribute? • NARC meeting: May-June 2012.

14. MEXICO & CENTRAL AMERICA SWFDP? • Last NARC meeting • Cuernavaca, Mexico, May 2010 • Back-to-back with 5th NAEFS Workshop • Huge turnout & success (more than 100 participants from region) • Mexican THORPEX Committee formed • Draft Mexican Science Plan • Regional model intercomparison – research to operation • Heavy precipitation forecast in S Mexico & Central America • Step towards regional NWP in Mexico and Central America? • Seven Mexican centers to run WRF • Groups in the U.S. and Canada offered participation • Link with TIGGE-LAM • Next NARC meeting • Monterey, USA, Spring 2012 – joint with NAEFS Workshop