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Using Scenarios in the California Water Plan

Using Scenarios in the California Water Plan. Water Plan Scenarios Represent Baseline Conditions. Plausible during planning horizon under consideration Influence future water management decisions The water community has little control over.

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Using Scenarios in the California Water Plan

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  1. Using Scenarios in the California Water Plan

  2. Water Plan Scenarios Represent Baseline Conditions • Plausible during planning horizon under consideration • Influence future water management decisions • The water community has little control over

  3. Uncertainties Affecting California Water Management • Future climate change • Vulnerable flood management system • Severity of the next drought • Collapsing Delta ecosystem • Growing population • Invasive species

  4. Update 2009 Scenario Activities

  5. Scenarios Organized Around Uncertainty Economic and Financial Institutional and Political Natural Systems Technology Cultural Practices

  6. Discussed Scenario Quantification Update 2005 Update 2009

  7. A Scenario Analysis Has Four Key Elements

  8. Advisory Committee Explored Scenario Themes • “CHALLENGING CONDITIONS” scenarios • “Cascading Catastrophes” • “Armageddon” • “World Falls Apart” • “Gloom and Doom” • “OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK” scenarios • “Optimal Multiple Benefits” • “Eureka!” • “Native Control” • “Blue Skies”

  9. Draft Assumptions and Estimates Report • http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009/ae Includes narratives for 3 scenarios

  10. Scenario Storylines • Scenario 1 – Current Trends • Scenario 2 • Scenario 3

  11. Scenario 1Current Trends • Recent trends continue for the following: • Population growth and development patterns • Agricultural and industrial production • Environmental water dedication and protection • Climate Change consistent with IPCC and Climate Action Team (Middle Projections) • Improved regional water management, but lacking statewide integration

  12. Scenario 2 • Population growth lower than current trends • Higher housing density • Higher agricultural and industrial production • More water for the environment • Climate change follows less severe projections • Improved regional water management with statewide integration

  13. Scenario 3 • Population growth higher than current trends • Lower housing density • Steeper decline in agricultural land • Less water for the environment • Climate change follows more severe projections • No additional regional water management

  14. Activities for TodayDiscussion of storylines • Are the storylines logical? • Are they plausible? • Will they help us examine management responses? • Are there relevant theme-based names?

  15. Next Steps on Scenarios • Refine scenarios narratives using comments on Draft Assumptions and Estimates Report (copies available) • Work through SWAN to refine scenario quantification within WEAP • Initial scenario quantification for Update 2009 Public Review Draft (December)

  16. Reference Information • Draft Assumptions and Estimates for Update 2009 • http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009/ae • Includes narratives for 3 scenarios Rich Juricich • juricich@water.ca.gov • (916) 651-9225

  17. Questions?

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