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Planning Water Scenarios

Planning Water Scenarios. Yoginder K. Alagh. Introduction.

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Planning Water Scenarios

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  1. Planning Water Scenarios Yoginder K. Alagh

  2. Introduction • Water Demand in the Agricultural Sub Model: Iterative Procedures; Demand, population, income, income redistribution:Supply Modelling is on land, water and technology:conservative assumptions.(origin in food scarcity so fail safe planning) • Long Term Modelling: little attention in futures scenarios: but in work of The Commission on Long Term Perspectives, population, land and water projections emerging from planning and agro-climatic perspectives

  3. Demand Modelling • Demand Modelling in Indian Planning is done by preparing income and price elasticities. Price elasticities are estimated by Complete Demand Systems. This system was developed by the Task Force on Minimum Needs and Effective Demand which developed India’s Poverty Line in the Seventies. It was chaired by the present author and is still in use. Income elasticities are developed using best fitting Engel Curves. • The recommendations of the Alagh Task Force were based on one of the most detailed demand and income distribution studies done anywhere in the world. Taking account of household budgetary survey data, price information and aggregate consumption patterns, it developed the income and price response of both poor and rich households separately in rural and urban areas. This work started a tradition of econometric investigation which has continued { Table 1 below gives some recent estimates. )

  4. Econometric Price Elasticities • Table 1. • Price Elasticities: 1998 • Commodity Rural Urban • Below Poverty Line Above Poverty Line Below Poverty above povty • Cereals -0.530 -0.161 -0.430 -0.099 • Edible oils-0.794 -0.589 -0.799 -0.417 • Sugar -0.941 -0.800 -0.740 -0.294 • Source: Ravi, C. (2001), Complete Demand System, Welfare and Nutrition: An Analysis of Indian Consumption Data, Phd dissertation, Centre for Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad

  5. Drivers • In this method the demand drivers are: • Population Projections • Income Growth • Redistribution of Income: Anti poverty programmes • For econometric details see • Government of India, Planning Commission, PPD, Report of the Task Force on Projections of Minimum Needs and Effective Consumption Demand, Manager of Publications, Delhi, 1979. • A more formal presentation is given in a model of growth in a fairly well known feschtrift to Jan Tinbergen edited by Cohen, Cornillise, Teekens and Thorbecke.See Y.K.Alagh, S.P.Kashyap and G.V.S.N.Murthy,Policy Modelling for Planning in India, in S.I.Cohen, P.A.Cornillise, R.Teekens and E. Thorbecke, The Modelling of Socio-Economic Planning Processes, Gower, Aldershot, 1984, pp. 59-90..

  6. A Typical Exercise!! • Table 10: • Projected Food Requirements and Production during 2000 to 2020 • YearPopulation Food Demand Net Food Demand AdditionalDemand • (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (mn. Tonnes) • 2000 1012.66 188.5 179.7 8.8 • 2005 1087.46 202.3 192.5 9.9 • 2010 1152.16 214.3 205.1 9.1 • 2015 1211.67 225.7 217.9 7.4 • 2020 1271.17 236.6 230.6 5.9

  7. A Scenario • Another Way • Food • We have obtained projected figures of net food production (i.e., by excluding the amount used for cattle feed, seeds and waste from gross food production) by assuming that the average rate of growth in agricultural production observed during the period from 1971 to 1999 would persist in future years. Comparisons of projected net food production figures with those of food requirement calculated, as explained in the footnote of Table 10, for the projected population shows that there will be a deficit in food production of the order of 8 to 9 million tonnes. This deficit, however, reduces to 6 million tonnes towards the end of the projection period. • : • Food requirement norm is based on 2250 calories daily per capita, a norm recommended by FAO as well as by the National Commission on Agriculture for the developing countries (Bhatia 1983). This implies a per capita requirement of 186 Kg. per year. • Projected food production figures were obtained by extrapolating using linear trend growth obtained from production data from 1971 to 1999.

  8. The AGRICULTURAL Sub Model • This was built in days of food security concerns, but its structure is still there in the Technical Note to the Plans. It should be understood as a method of reasoning since ideas change slowly • In the Seventies think tanks( See Keith Griffin, 1971 and Francine Frankel, 1971 ) and the Brettonwoods institutions had an extremely dim view of India’s agricultural and growth prospects. At the IDS Sussex, Paul Streeten and Michael Lipton also argued that India had dim medium term growth prospects since agriculture would lead to a wage goods constraint. The initial spurt of grain growth had petered out and the green revolution was seen as a misnomer . India’s grain production was projected to go upto 116 million tonnes in 1973/74 and then to 140 million tonnes by the end seventies. But after reaching 108 million tonnes in 1971, it was ranging between 101 to 104 million tonnes in the early seventies. It was at this time that policy making in India focussed on priority in resource allocation to agriculture with priorities set at the level of the Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who saw food security as central issue. The Planning Commission produced its first Agricultural Sub-Model .(with the present author organising the effort ) and this model made conservative assumptions on land reserves and productivity assumptions so that resource allocation for agriculture got high priority in the investment budget.

  9. Experience and Methods • Features of Indian agricultural experience in the early 1970s ( the PPD-JNU study by Bhalla and Alagh used District level data to work out sources of growth ) were used for Indian agricultural policy making and planning. Therefore the first "Agricultural Sub-Model" of the Fifth Five Year Plan (1974-79) prepared in 1975 argued: • that State level data corroborates the findings of earlier disaggregative studies that in certain regions of the country foodgrains growth is primarily explained by factors, such as irrigation on multiple cropping, while in other pockets it is due to the water-seed-fertilizers technology. (See Alagh, 1979 in GOI, PPD, 1979, p. 22). • and again for IRRIGATION • “ growth of gross irrigated area is also given a critical role in determining the growth of gross cropped area as in the National Commission on Agriculture's Report.... For the country as a whole and for all crops it was estimated that a one per cent increase in irrigated area would lead to a 0.20 per cent increase in gross cropped area.... The estimate of increase in gross cropped area which is derived from the emphasis on irrigation, using past behaviour as indicated above would yield a growth rate of 0.8 per cent per annum in the Fifth Five Year Plan and upto 1980/81 and by about 0.6 per cent per annum upto 1988/89. The given estimate is considered to be feasible. (GOI, PPD, 1979, pp. 22-23).”

  10. Land and Irrigation • It can be briefly recapitulated here that this strategy essentially consists of studies of past production patterns and with respect to certain behavioural and structural cons­traints, such as cropped area and its allocation, the conti­nuance of past patterns is postulated in order to preserve a realistic frame for the supply projections. However, the emphasis in the planning aspect is on the provision of critical inputs which would sustain the generation of additional production potential. Thus, as compared to earlier exercises, the gross cropped area is now postulated to increase only by 0.7 per cent compound per annum. Increase in cropped area has shown a strong relationship, through multiple cropping, with the provision of irrigation facilities. The growth of irrigation facilities at the rate of approximately 4 per annum compound in the Fifth Five Year Plan and beyond is bound to sustain the increase in cropping area being postulated at present. Based on technical advice and study of the experience from the last few years, the area to be brought under the high yielding varieties of seeds has been carefully postulated. The yield levels by each crop under high yielding variety irrigated land, other irrigated land and unirrigated lands postulated to remain at the level estimated by the National Sample Survey's crop cutting experiments for the triennium 1970/ 71 to 1972/73. For the spread of irrigation facilities and achieving the targets sufficient funds have to be provided. Similar attention has to be paid to minor irrigation. The current status of ground water exploration has to be accelerated. In many arid regions of the country, such effort has been lacking in the past. • They production potential is estimated through this methodology. (GOI, PPD, 1979, P. 47)

  11. Policies • The importance given to these planning studies was shown by the fact that in 1975, after the budget, funds for completing ten irrigation projects and for financing a ground water extraction programme in a supplementary allocation in May 1975. The Indian policy makers,based on past sources of growth studies confidently predicted in 1975 that the Indian farmer, once given support would take the country’s grain production to 125 million tones in 1978/79. Fertiliser consumption which had gone down after the energy crisis to 2.8 million tones was postulated to rise to 5 million tonnes. These targets were treated with derision and the comments outside India were that it was only the long haired boys in the Indian Planning Commission who believed them. It was predicted that India would produce 116-118 million tonnes of grain and many in India including in policy making positions supported them. Actually in 1978/79 India produced 127 million tonnes of grain and its fertiliser consumption was 5.2 million tonnes

  12. Diversification • Recent models show the impact of demand diversification • In response to higher growth, India has seen growth and diversification of its food basket. The 1980s and 1990s record a much faster growth of agro-based consumption in the Indian demand basket. For example, per capita consumption of sugar goes up from 6.2 in 1975-76 to 14.9 kgs./year. (Table 2) and that level is not only much higher than in comparable countries, but also than in countries which have much higher levels of per capita income. Also, there has been a very rapid increase in consumption of non-crop based commodities like eggs and milk.. Egg consumption per capita goes up from 15 to 30 per year in the period of 1975-98. Thus, as shown in my Lal Bahadur Shastri Lecture, expansion and diversification of the consumption basket is basically driven by a higher growth performance in the 1980s.

  13. Diversification Trends • Per Capita Consumption of Agricultural Processed Commodities in India • S. No .Commodity 1955/56 1975/76 1990/91 1998/9 • 1. Food grains (per capita kgs/year) 155.6 158.5 180.6 176.7 • .2.Edible oil and vanaspati, (kgs/yr) 3.2 4.6. 5.1 7.1 • 3.Sugar (kgs/yr) 5.0 6.2 12.5 14.9 • 4.Textiles (cotton equivalents) (meters/yr) 14.4 17.6 24.8 28.2 . 5.Tea (kgs/yr) 0.36 0.45 0.61 0.68 6.Milk (ltrs/day) 4.7 4.6 6.3 7.5 7.Eggs (nos/mo) 5.3 15.5 26.0 30.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sources: 1 Economic Survey, 2000-01, Vol. 2, pages S-24, S-2 2. Y.K. Alagh, Shastri Lecture, ICAR, Landmarks in Indian Agriculture, New Delhi, ICAR, 1994, pp. 178-99.

  14. Population • There is need for caution in population figures used as drivers. In earlier estimates used for global forecasts population figures were expected to go up from 856 million in 1991/92 to 938 million in 1996/97, showing an annual average growth rate of 1.8% (Table 1). If the growth rate remained around 2%, this figure would go up to 955 million. ( See Alagh, 1995 and Kumar, Saxena, Alagh and Mitra, 2000 ) According to indications then it was argued that the actual figure would be in between these two figures since the death rate had fallen below even the 2000 target, but the birth rate was below target, hence population growth would be around 1.9%. the estimated population would be around 1016 million in 2000/01 and in any case will be below the rate of around 2% as estimated by the earlier UN projections, of around 1042 million in that year. These developments have now been taken into account by the UN and the 1998 revised population projections of the UN estimate India’s population in 2000/01 at 101.37 million. As of March 2001, the Census estimate of the population was 102.7 million persons. If India was able to achieve a population growth rate of around 1.6% in the decade 2000/01 to 2010/2011, its population would reach 1171 million, if the Planning Commission projections were used as a base. Even if this target was exceeded the figure would be less than 1224 million as estimated by the UN earlier.

  15. Revisions • The revised UN projections are now 115.22 million. For the year 2020/21, the UN projections are now 127.22 million. These projections have not incorporated the details of the 2001 census. The Registrar-General's Working Group on Population Projections set up conventionally by the Planning Commission, will have to firm up these alternative conjectural projections, in terms of underlying fertility, mortality and expected life span behaviour, by age-group and rural-urban categories. The details of recent population projections and changes in them have been outlined to show that there is a level of tentativeness about the available population projections and the detailed country level projections are necessary. For large countries, attention to detail is necessary, since differences can have substantial impact as we have seen and this in turn can influence substantive issues and judgements. For the purpose of this study UN projections given by the UNU/IAS have been used. ( Table 2. )

  16. Revised projections • Table 2 • UN Population Projections • Year Population (million) • (1) (2) • 2000 1012.66 • 2005 1087.46 • 2010 1152.16 • 2015 1211.67 • 2020 1271.17

  17. Land • The other major category needing examination in this kind of perspective is the land or resource base of the economy. The Planning Commission has correctly projected that the net area sown or arable land of the country will remain constant at 141 million hectares. • Growth in net area sown at around 1% annual in the early period of planning fell to around 0.6% and then to 0.3% in subsequent decades and is now not growing at all. It is reasonable to assume that the geographical area of the country or the extensive land frontier for exploitation has reached its limits. • This is an important issue, the implications of which are not being realised with the urgency they deserve, since at a basic level resource constraints of a more severe kind faced by certain East Asian economies are now being approached in India. Organisations, communities, households and individuals will have to grasp this fact and live with it.

  18. Intensity • The intensive frontier for land use, however, remains. It has been known for example that cropping intensity depends on irrigation. Thus gross cropped area or harvested area has been shown in the past to be strongly determined statistically, in an econometric sense, by net irrigated area and irrigation intensity. Irrigation permits the possibility of multiple cropping by bringing additional land under cultivation and the same land to be used more than once. Also the application of new technologies in the past was related to assured water supply. The new technology, on account of its photo insensitivity properties, permits shorter duration crops, which also is associated with increase in cropping intensity. ( For details of this relationship in agricultural planning and policy models, see Alagh, ESCAP, 1983 ).

  19. Earlier Econometrics • The use of this relationship has been used in Indian agricultural policy and plan models, since the mid-Seventies when the first agricultural sub-model of Indian planning was formulated for grain self reliance ( See Alagh, et. al., Planning Commission, 1979 ). The parameters used in different plans were as follows; • Sr. Plan Additional Additional Elasticity of • No. Irrigation Cropped GCA w.r.t. • Utilisation Area GIA • (mn. hec.) (mn. hec.) • 0 1 2 3 4 • 1 Fifth 9.11 6.04 0.20 • Sixth 13.80 11.74 0.26 • Seventh(O) 10.90 10.00 0.31 • Seventh® 9.50 7.60 0.24

  20. Now • In the Nineties as we noted arable area has stopped growing and so the land constraint is far more severe. Growth will now have to be sourced from double cropping and yields. • These fundamental relationships are used to project the intensive resource base of the economy. Table 1 shows that by the end of the decade India would have used up most of its balance water reserves, with the irrigated area reaching around 114 million hectares by 2010. ( See Alagh, 1995, p. 395 and table, below ). The projections for 2020 are a requirement of irrigation of 122 million hectares for irrigation ( K. Chopra and B. Golder, Table 2.6 )

  21. Resource Balances • LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN PERSPECTIVE • Sl No Variable 1991/2 1996/72001/22006/7 • 1.Population (millions) • a. Planning Commission856 938 1016 1099 • b. UN ( Unrevised ) 874 955 1042 1130 • 2.Net Area Sown (mn. hec.) • a. Planning Commission estimate140 141 141 141 • Revised 141141141 • 3.Gross area sown (mn. hec.) • a. Planning Commission estimate182 191 197 203 • Revised 183 191 197 205 • 4.Gross Irrigated Area (mn. hec.) • a Planning Commission estimate76 89 102 114 • Revised 64 78 92 107

  22. Balances and Intensities • 5.Cropping Intensity • a. Planning • Commission • estimate1.30 1.35 1.40 1.44 • Revised 1.301.35 1.40 1.45 • 6.Gross Irrigated Area as % of Gross Area Sown • a. Planning Commission estimate 41.5 46.9 51.7 56. • 1b. Revised • 35.0 41 46 51 • Source: Uma Lele, Y.K. Alagh,et.al., Forestry in India: An Evaluation, Washington, World bank, 2000, Annex H

  23. The Message • The analysis strongly suggests simultaneous action on surface water development, both large and small projects, ground water and conjunctive use and efficiency in water use. Or India is in serious trouble. Another way of looking at the severe land constraint is to see that a net area sown per person will go down from around 0.17 hectare to around 0.10 hectares. Gross area sown per person currently around 0.2 hectares will even, if cropping intensity increases very rapidly, go down to around 0.15 - 0.18 hectares.

  24. Outcomes 2020 • The projections assume a vastly improved performance on the land and water management frontiers. It needs to be remembered that the balance ground water reserves are now more limited. A very dramatic effort will be needed to harvest and carefully use the available water. Otherwise, the projected increase in cropping intensity will simply not take place. Cropping intensity increased from around 1.18 at the beginning of the Seventies to around 1.3 in the early Nineties. In the next two decades, this effort needs to be considerably strengthened, so that cropping intensity can increase from 1.3 to 1.5. Harvesting of rainwater, recycling water from agricultural drainage systems, more judicious use of water for cropping, will all be required. Non-agricultural use of water will have to be far more economical. The detailed exercise done for this study requires that in the sustainable scenario 35.83 BCM of water are saved by conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and 142 BCM through harvesting of runoff. ( Chopra and Golder, Table 2.6 )

  25. Another Tradition • In 1987 the Planning Commission started work on an agro-climatic strategy (ACRP) for Indian agriculture. Land and water were important parts of this strategy. ( See References ) • The Plans now have a bifocal approach reflecting both the approach in the Agricultural Sub Model and the ACRP

  26. ACRP • The categories behind agro-economic zoning, are of soil land type, water and climate. Climate here refers to weather i.e. temperature and rainfall ( both levels and variation ). Water is both surface and ground. These concepts have been described well by geographers and a classic description is by the Russian academician Dr. Galina Sadasyuk ( See Alagh, 1991 for a detailed discussion ). G. Sadasyuk and P. Sengupta, ( 1968 ) for example, divided India into 18 agro-climatic zones and 44 sub-regions. ( See Alagh, 1988 and Planning Commission, 1989 ). Similar exercizes have been developed in other large countries, for example, Brazil, Indonesia and even France ( See Ignacy Sachs, 1991, Lutfi Nasution, 1993 ). • The I ndian Agro Climatic Planning Exercise built up targets from a sub-zonal level on: • Area to be brought under tank irrigation through renovation and/or fresh construction • Area to be covered by a canal distribution rehab and renovation project • Ground water abstraction possibilities

  27. The Vision • Assuming very optimistic policies A Blue Ribbon Commission on Water Perspectives, which followed the approaches indicated above has projected balanced demand/supplies in 2025. These include • Improvement in irrigation efficiencies above 60% from existing levels of less than 40% • Conjunctive use and aquifier management • Demand management and rationalisation of cropping patterns • Much greater priority to resource allocation to the water sector • Improved project management and phasing • Watershed development. • But separately its scholarly chairman has projected a shortage of 25% in a trend forecast. A recent UNU study by Y.K.Alagh and Kirit Parikh has also projected problems and at the regional level worse

  28. The Perspective • Water Requirement for Different Uses • S.No • Uses/year Year2010 Year2025 Year2050 • Low High Low High Low High • Km3 Km3 % Km3 Km3 % Km3 Km3 % • Surface Water • Irrigation 382 391 53 360 389 46 375 463 39 • Domestic 23 24 3 30 36 4 48 65 6 • Industries 26 26 4 47 47 6 57 57 5 • Power 14 15 2 25 26 3 50 56 5 • Inland Navigation- • in additional for • ecological need7 7 1 10 10 1 15 15 1

  29. Perspective contd. • Ecology 5 5 1 10 10 1 20 20 2 • Evaporation 42 42 6 50 50 6 76 76 6 • Total 499 510.1 70 532 588.3 67 641.1 751.7 64 • Ground Water • Irrigation 184 188 26 211 229 27 253 344 29 • Domestic • & Municipal 19 19 3 25 28 3 42 46 4 • Industries 11 11 2 20 20 2 24 24 2 • Power 4 4 1 6 7 1 19 14 1 • Total 217.7 221.9 30 262.3 281.7 33331.9428.336 • Grand • Total 717 732 100 794 850 100 973 1180 100 • Source: National Commission on Perspectives for Water Development

  30. New Initiatives • The Plans say • Community groups, NGO’s and Coperatives in the Agro Climatic Project have identified the major components. Farmer led distribution systems in existing commands; watershed development rehabilitation of tanks, beels, ponds, talaavs; aquifier management particularly in coastal areas have high returns; • A massive program for land and water development has to be the centre piece. Growth of private investment in groundwater has been spectacular and needs further support, particularly in the Eastern region of India • Basin Development and transfer of water are important. • It must be led by a public policy initiative, with a very large financing component. Newer institutional forms like cooperatives, NGOs, non profit companies and others must be designed. • Leadership groups must supervise the preparation and implementation of such a programs at the regional level of 3 to 5 Districts.

  31. Canals and Groundwater • Conjunctive water use can be attempted in an an area and is well suited to describe the “dynamic interaction between the surface and subsurface water systems” ( Peter Millington, 1996 ). The flow chart of a simple multi level model can be as follows: • Water --------------------- Population; Needs, irrigation,trees,etc • Development \ • \ \ • \ \ • \ \ • \ \ • \ Wells Drilled • \ \ • Climate Regime ---Water Table \ • Depth ----------------------- Deep Aquifier Water Quantity • \ / • \ / • \ / • Ground Water Quantity • Source: Nicholas Sonntag (1996)

  32. Best Practices • There are a number of successful experiences where the basic problems of food and energy requirements of poor rural communities were resolved through the application of state-of-the art scientific knowledge and technology at the cutting edge of the interface of man with land and water, which were studied in the programme of work designed on agro-climatic planning. An attempt was made as a part of the development of such plans to document success and failure stories in land and water management and more optimal land use and cropping patterns. Such success stories were, thus studied under alternative agro-climatic regimes, which include low rainfall areas where, for example, the level of water availability on an average is 50 cms and a coefficient of variation is 40 to 60 per cent and the Dry Regions of India (Region 14). In other words, in some years the water availability could be less than 8 inches. A second kind of agro-climatic problematique was that where the availability of water was greater, say around 1000 mm, but the variation was again 40 to 60 per cent. (Zone 7). But the problem, was within the context of a hill slope and a valley. Unregulated commercialisation invariably meant soil erosion and precipitation instead of becoming a blessing becomes a curse, since it flows down the hill, erodes the land base of the region and leads sooner or later to a collapse of the socio-economic system in terms of food and energy. A third problematique can be one where past development of an unplanned type or of a badly planned type had led to resource loss. Waterlogging and soil salinity are example of this kind. The Basin has all these problems in different areas and so a differentiated strategy in different areas is needed.

  33. Newer Trends • The kind of work that was done in the late Eighties, reported above was flatteringly repeated. The kind of examples given above have now been shown to have large scale replication (Kanchan Chopra and Gopal Kadekode, 1993, have conducted analysis which is far more inclusive and detailed than that which was originally presented by Alagh, 1991). • By now there are NGO’s who have succeeded in agro based projects in thousands of hectares and no longer can these examples be considered as pilots. The N.M. Sadguru Water and Development Foundation in the tribal district of Panchmahals in Gujarat has by now covered 18000 hectares under social forestry. It is the largest NGO funded by the European Commission in the World. Another group called WOTER has a similar performance in Ahmednagar District in Maharashtra. We have collected some case studies from them for this paper. These have been conducted by independent scholars like R. Chambers (1990), Cornoy (1992), K. Balooni and K. Singh (1994), K. Singh and T. Shah (1994), and Frances and Sanjay Sinha (1996).

  34. Communities • The success stories are community and leadership based, with leadership coming from diverse sources.- a progressive farmer, an NGO, a local army retired person, a ‘concerned’ civil servant, a scientist working in the field . The leaders either had a science background or new enough to adapt from a nearby science institution. The organisation structure was neither purely private ownership, nor fully community or social control. The leadership invariably argued for aggressively functioning markets and land ownership was private and agricultural operations at the household level. However there was for land or water management, limited and well defined cooperation. This could be drainage, soil shaping, contour management, improvement and management of lower level canals, desilting of tanks, raising embankments, fish culture, market development, controlled grazing and so on.

  35. Very Productive • Some studies estimate the land and water development costs, the labour component, ‘outside finance’, the output in terms of food requirements met, energy requirements met and fodder supplies. There were estimates of ‘economic rates of return on the investment’, i.e. at accounting border prices, with a shadow wage rate 25% higher than the market rate. Financial rates of return at market prices were also estimated. These studies showed high economic rates of return, 18% plus , making them very productive investments

  36. Different Approaches • Indian water scenarios follow a bifocal approach. There is macro estimation of demand through the sub-models • There is emphasis on policy choice and alternatives in the ACRP approach or the river basin approach • While the Perspectives Commission has futures scenarios with considerable policy discussion, the Futures study by the SP Gupta Committee has much less discussion on water issues. • In recent global models, while Indian water demand is estimated with an Efficiency scenario, that for neighbouring countries is on a BAU methodology. This is bad methodology, for comparative studies.

  37. References • Alagh, Y.( Chairman)1979, Task Force on Minimum Need and Effective Demand, Government of India. • Alagh, Y.. et. al., ( 1979 ),Studies on the Structure of the Indian Economy and Planning for Development, PPD, Planning Commission, New Delhi. • ------, et.al., 1984, Policy Modelling for Planning in India, in E. Thorbecke, ed. , below. • ------,1988, Guidelines for Agroclimatic Planning: A Draft for Discussion, Journal of Land Development . • ------, 1991, Indian Development Planning and Policy. WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Helsinki and Delhi, Vikas. • ------, 1991, Sustainable Development, From Concept to Action: Techniques for Planners, UNCED. • ------, 1994, Planning and Policies for Indian Agricultural Research, 25th Lal Bahadur Shastri Shastri Lecture, reprinted in ICAR, Landmarks in Indian Agriculture. • ------, Next Phase of Agroclimatic Research, in ARPU volume 2 of same title, New Delhi, Concept. • ------, and D.Buch, 1995, The SSP and Sustainable Development, in W. Fisher, Columbia University Seminars, below. • -----,2000, Sustainable Development: India 2020, Tokyo, UNU/IAS

  38. References 2 • Bhalla, G., and Y.Alagh, Performance in Indian Agriculture, New Delhi, Sterling. • Chopra. K., and G. Kadekodi,1993, Watershed Development, Economic and Political Weekly, June 26, pp, A61-A67. • Frankel, F.R.’1971, India’s Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. 1971. • Griffin, Keith, 1971 , Green Revolution – An Economic Analysis, United Nations Institute for Social Development, Report No.72.6, Geneva. • Lele, U., N. Kumar, Y. Alagh, N. Saxena, and K. Mitra, 2000, Forestry in India: An Evaluation, Washington, World Bank. • Nasution, L., 1993 , Agricultural Regionalistion of Indonesia, Bogor, Agricultural, Research Centre • Sachs, I., 1991, Background Paper for the Hague Declaration, extensively reprinted in Nature and by RIS. • Sadasyuk, G., and P. Sengupta, 1968, Economic Regionalisation of India: Problems and Approaches, New Delhi, Census of India, Monograph No. 8 of Census 1960 • Sonntag, N., 1996, Adaptive Management Policy Exercises : Two Methods for Integrated Resource Management, in MRC. p. 27.

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