Global Warming MythBusters

1. Global Warming MythBusters Webinar on Science Fact & Science Fiction Featuring Professor Brian Soden, IPCC Author

2. Agenda • General discussion of scientific credibility • Common myths about climate change • Questions & Answers Sponsored by the Florida Business Network for a Clean Energy Economy

3. Dr. Brian Soden • Professor of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography • Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami • Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGI/AR4 • Climate change

4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 IPCC Report • Started 2004 • Completed February 2007 • 152 Authors • ~450 contributors • ~600 expert reviewers • 30,000+ review comments Contents • Summary for Policymakers • Technical Summary • 11 Chapters • Frequently Asked Questions • ~5000 literature references • ~1000 pages

5. The IPCC Sequence of Findings IPCC (1990) “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.” IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence (>50%) suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.” IPCC (2007)

7. Actual 1995-2000 observations … one of the most important outcomes of your study could be a clear statement of our present ignorance. That in itself should indicate the need for contingency plans. - Panel Respondent

8. The IPCC Sequence of Findings IPCC (1990) “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.” IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence (>50%) suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.” IPCC (2007) “Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past 50 years is very likely (>90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.”

9. Myth #1Its not warming

10. The World Has Warmed • Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.8°C (~1.5°F) warmer than it was in 1880. • Eleven of the last 12 years are among the 12 warmest since 1880.

12. Consistent Patterns of Warming • Mountain glaciers are retreating • Arctic sea ice is decreasing • Greenland is melting • Snow/permafrost decreasing • Sea level is rising • Ocean heat content is increasing • More intense droughts • Atmospheric moisture increasing • Heavier rainfall events • Increased heat waves WARMING IS UNEQUIVOCAL

13. Myth # 2 “But the globe is cooling!”

15. Climate Models Expect This Observed and Predicted Changes in Global Temperature Observations Climate Model Predictions We don’t expect each year to be warmer than the previous one.

16. Myth # 3 “It was freezing this winter. That proves global warming is wrong”

18. Myth #4 OK, but mankind is not causing the warming

19. Evidence for Human Caused Climate Change The rate of warming over the past century is unusual. Temperature Change (oF) 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 The rapid warming coincides with increasing carbon dioxide. CO2 Concentration (ppb) 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 Carbon Emissions from Human Activity The increasing carbon dioxide is due to human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels. Carbon Emissions 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

20. Myth # 5: You forgot about the sun

21. What About the Sun? Changes in solar activity contributed to the warming in the first half of the 20th Century, but can NOT explain the warming observed since the1950s.

23. Comparison of Modeled and Observed Temperature

24. Myth # 6: It’s a Natural Cycle, like El Nino and La Nina?

25. Myth # 7 “There is no scientific consensus.” * 2009 survey by Univ. of Illinois

26. Scientific Consensus The National Academy of Sciences: “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear…(we urge) prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change.” 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” 2007 American Association for the Advancement of Science Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Ecological Society of America Botanical Society of America American Society of Plant Biologists American Meteorological Society American Geophysical Union American Geophysical Union American Statistical Association American Chemical Society

27. Myth # 8“Climate Gate proved there’s a conspiracy.”

28. Climategate 101: Jones e-mail of 16 Nov 1999 "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline."

30. Myth # 10 “Climate scientists are in it for the money.”

31. Follow the Money www.ExxonSecrets.org

32. Fossil Fuel Funding • Since 1998, ExxonMobil has put $22,123,456 toward climate science denial. • Pat Michaels - Dr. Michaels has acknowledged that 20% of his funding comes from fossil fuel sources. • The Heartland Institute - $830,000 from Exxon • The CATO Institute - $125,000 from Exxon • American Enterprise Institute - $1,860,000 from Exxon • George C. Marshall Institute - $745,000 from Exxon • Heritage Foundation - $565,000 from Exxon • These financial figures represent Exxon funding from 1998 until 2006. • www.ExxonSecrets.org

33. Questions?

34. Resources • Florida Energy Systems Consortium www.floridaenergy.ufl.edu • Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org • NASA’s climate change web site http://climate.nasa.gov/warmingworld/ • Climate Ethics http://climateethics.org/ • Real Climate www.realclimate.org/ • Clean Energy Works www.cleanenergyworks.us/ • American Business For Clean Energy www.AmericanBusinessForCleanEnergy.org • Clean Energy Stories www.cleanenergystories.org/

35. Reliability of Proxy Temperature Records