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Election 2008: What happened and why? PowerPoint Presentation
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Election 2008: What happened and why?

Election 2008: What happened and why?

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Election 2008: What happened and why?

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  1. Election 2008:What happened and why? Matt Barreto Political Science (With considerable input from Chris Parker, Chip Turner, Mark Smith, John Gastil, Luis Fraga, Loren Collingwood, Francisco Pedraza, and Allison Rank

  2. What happened and why? Obama 364 McCain 174 (+ North Carolina) (+ Missouri) States that turned Red  Blue Ohio Iowa Virginia Colorado (North Carolina) New Mexico Florida Nevada Indiana

  3. What happened and why? Obama 364 McCain 174 Who was part of the Coalition? ~ African Americans ~ Latinos ~ Asian Americans ~ Young voters ~ College Educated ~ Non-College ~ Independents ~ First time voters

  4. What happened and why? Obama 364 McCain 174 Who was part of the Coalition? 04 08 Diff ~ African Americans 88 95 +7 ~ Latinos 57 70 +12 ~ Asian Americans 56 62 +6 ~ Young voters 54 66 +12 ~ College Educated 49 52 +3 ~ Non-College 47 54 +7 ~ Independents 49 52 +3 ~ First time voters 53 68 +15

  5. What happened and why? Obama 364 McCain 174

  6. What happened and why? Latino Vote in Key States: Kerry Obama % Lat Florida 44% 57% nc New Mex 56% 68% +.08 Colorado 68% 64% +.05 Nevada 60% 75% +.08 Virginia North Carolina Pennsylvannia

  7. What happened and why? The Youth Vote in Key States Kerry Obama < 30 Indiana 47% 63% +.05 Virginia 54% 60% +.04 Iowa 53% 61% +.02 N. Carolina 56% 74% +.05 Across the board, youth vote had higher turnout than in 2004, broke heavily for Obama

  8. What happened and why? Was Race / Bradley Effect a factor? Early data suggests no, but need to look at this state-by-state to compare to pre-election What about the issues / the economy? People worried about economy broke heavy for Obama 60% to 40% People worried about terrorism split evenly with 50% McCain; 48% Obama People who disapprove of Iraq War (63%) were strong for Obama, 76% to 22% Some concern over McCain’s age with 15% saying age was a factor, and voting 77% Obama