Decision Making under Uncertainty

Decision Making under Uncertainty. The maximin criterion. A decision table for the food manufacturer ( Daily profits)           Demand (no. of batches) 1 2 Course of action Produce 1 batch $200 $200 Produce 2 batches –$600 $400.

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Decision making under uncertainty

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Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty. Outline. Components of decision making Criteria for decision making Utility theory Decision trees Posterior probabilities using Bayes ’ rule The Monty Hall problem. The decision maker who is responsible for making the decision.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Econ 301. Bernoulli Game. How much would you pay for a gamble that paid you for the nth head in a sequence of coin tosses ending at the first tail? For example if the sequence is HHHT you get 1+2+4. If the sequence is HHHHT you get 1+2+4+8.

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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty . Overview. Two models of decision-making under uncertainty Nondeterministic uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty In particular, what is the rational action in the presence of repeated states?. Game Playing Review. Game playing with an adversary

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Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Decision-Making under Uncertainty. http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/projects/muri. University of California, Berkeley Venkat Anantharam Laurent El Ghaoui Michael I. Jordan Stuart Russell S. Shankar Sastry University of California, Davis Roger Wets Stanford University Daphne Koller

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Jim Bosscher Trinity Health Gerry McNamara Michigan State University Bill Nunan Nunan Venture Services Robert Wiseman Michigan State University. Risk and Uncertainty. Risk implies outcomes can be identified and measured Loss exposure

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Decision-making under uncertainty

Decision-making under uncertainty. Introduction. Definition of risk Attitudes toward risk Avoiding risk: Diversification Insurance. Uncertainty is everywhere. Car: how long will it last? House: will it be destroyed in an earthquake? Company stocks: will they be profitable? And so on.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Under Risk

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Under Risk. Elements of Decision Problems. Objectives Decisions Uncertain Events Consequences. The Six Steps in Decision Making. Clearly define the problem at hand List the possible alternatives Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. CMSC 471 – Spring 2041 Class #25– Tuesday, April 29 R&N, 17.1-17.3. material from Lise Getoor, Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. Sequential Decision Making. Finite Horizon Infinite Horizon.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Let’s stop pretending we know things. Decision Analysis. A formal technique for framing and analyzing decisions under uncertainty that have a dynamic component Make decision, then uncertainty revealed, make next decision, …

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. CMSC 471 – Spring 2014 Class #12– Thursday, March 6 R&N, Chapters 15.1-15.2.1, 16.1-16.3. material from Lise Getoor, Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. MODELING UNCERTAINTY OVER TIME. sensors. environment. ?. agent. actuators.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Russell and Norvig: ch 16 CMSC421 – Fall 2006. sensors. environment. ?. agent. actuators. Utility-Based Agent. ?. ?. a. a. b. b. c. c. {a(p a ),b(p b ),c(p c )} decision that maximizes expected utility value.

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Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. DMD #7 David Kopcso and Richard Cleary Babson College F. W. Olin Graduate School of Business. Objectives. To learn how to use decision trees to model a decision. In particular, how to account for uncertainty in decisions.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Russell and Norvig: ch 16, 17 CMSC 671 – Fall 2005. material from Lise Getoor, Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Many environments have multiple possible outcomes Some of these outcomes may be good; others may be bad

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Risk , Ambiguity , SSI and Conflict

Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Risk , Ambiguity , SSI and Conflict. Helen Pushkarskaya, Xun Liu, Michael Smithson, Jane Joseph University of Kentucky The Australian National University. Plan of the presentation.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Russell and Norvig: ch 16, 17 CMSC421 – Fall 2003. material from Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. sensors. environment. ?. agent. actuators. Utility-Based Agent. ?. ?. a. a. b. b. c. c. {a(p a ),b(p b ),c(p c )}

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Russell and Norvig: ch 16, 17 CMSC 671 – Fall 2005. material from Lise Getoor, Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Many environments have multiple possible outcomes Some of these outcomes may be good; others may be bad

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. CMSC 471 – Spring 2041 Class #25– Tuesday, April 29 R&N, 17.1-17.3. material from Lise Getoor, Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. Sequential Decision Making. Finite Horizon Infinite Horizon.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty. CMSC 471 – Spring 2014 Class #12– Thursday, March 6 R&N, Chapters 15.1-15.2.1, 16.1-16.3. material from Lise Getoor, Jean-Claude Latombe, and Daphne Koller. MODELING UNCERTAINTY OVER TIME. sensors. environment. ?. agent. actuators.

306 views • 24 slides